ES Journal - 2012

[tortoise]

Quote from EON Kid:

they way I look at it is that 'they" are painting the tape. That volume belongs to multiple timeframes imagine one major firm has 4 monkeys generating trades
monkey 1 does intraday trades
monkey 2 does daily
monkey 3 weekly
monkey 4 monthly

all submit their orders to one smart orangutan what is the net outcome of the trades that the orangutan outputs, you see you never see the full picture of what is behind the curtain, monkey 1 may be accumulating while monkey 4 distributes

a crazy view I guess

this is helpful, and amusing. thanks

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from ammo:

LC defines it with a big uptick or down tick move and the market doesnt move accordingly,the uptick without the move would indicate distribution,he can explain it better

using $tick or other custom tick breadths can tell you if a wave of buying is done with a lot of effort (extreme positve $tick prints) or a easy pop (mildly positive $tick print) in the underlying components.

that compensate the weaknesses of monitoring just ES or SPY traded volume.

 

[Ramp]

Quote from JoshDance:

Hurricane, Trvl, oracle, bigsnack, thanks all for comments. I will re-read again at the end of the day and digest...

As for my current long, 76.75, and add a long at 75.50, what do you think? If you're thinking "boy, that's a stupid trade" please tell me why you think so, I would love feedback.

I generally won't enter long when price is below the daily pivot, opening range and 5-min EMA 20. These really simple rules keep me from fighting the flow (not saying your trade won't work out). GL!

 

[ammo]

elephant in the room, longs are not a high probability trade at the moment

 

[tortoise]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

using $tick or other custom tick breadths can tell you if a wave of buying is done with a lot of effort (extreme positve $tick prints) or a easy pop (mildly positive $tick print) in the underlying components.

that compensate the weaknesses of monitoring just ES or SPY traded volume.

in other words, correlating es/spy traded volume with buy/sell activity in underlying component stocks? yes, this is what i do.

what i didn't understand was how an apparent increase in buy pressure could actually reflect net distribution. in other words, how it could be that when there are more buyers than sellers, the "dominant intent," if you will, could be to sell.

 

[lucky lucille]

Quote from lucky lucille:

L77

78.25 CB

target 80

new T ,,,81

 

[ammo]

Quote from JoshDance:

For those of you who are consistently doing well in this market,.

if it makes you feel any better,i lost mon-thur..another note,when i was trying to scalp oil and you were in there you were nailing it,maybe you are going thru transition pains, different beast,don't beat yourself up,market carry's a big bat,you don't need to give it any help

 

[bigsnack]

Another 50% short being respected, with no TICK closes above 600.....

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from tortoise:

in other words, correlating es/spy traded volume with buy/sell activity in underlying component stocks?

index futures and the underlying components affect each other dynamically.

if the underlying components are not moving higher, ES cannot do it itself, given the players are normal (i.e. have a normal money making objective)

sometimes ES can pull the components up if someone willing to buy and not caring if the position will make money or not (i.e. PPT) then by stretching ES far away from the cash index enough, you trigger the arbs to pull them back together.

so real-time breadth is very useful to completely replace the ES volume. using tick indices, the component volumes, etc. give you a different dimension of information

 

[ammo]

eur and trans not looking too chipper either