and the channel is maintained. looking for an eventual break. we've hit the 76 fib es retrace
ES Journal - 2012
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
Ok, I believe ES spiked to 97.50, so it wasn't quite 4 points of heat, but if the ES had spiked to 98, then IN THIS PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCE, I probably would have remained short--which, I think, illustrates the strength of my trade management approach FOR ME.
First of all, I had a crappy-bad entry. It was a bad entry based on a misread of my trigger conditions. Now, at the time I entered, I could not say, for sure, whether it was the right trade at the wrong time, or simply the wrong trade. All I knew was that the trigger conditions were not there. My bad.
BUT...
I had a high degree of confidence that my macro read was correct. I also knew that my criteria would tell me whether or not my read was correct within a few moments, and, most likely, a couple of points. (And, I should add, I was completely ready and willing to be find out that my read was incorrect.)
Honestly, I was getting a little itchy on the way up, but by the time it hit 1196, conditions were starting to turn--in a way I recognized as probably decisive--in my direction. By 1197, I was confident this was an overthrow. And that the inevitable noise/retrace would tell me, one way or another.
If I hadn't erred-I was impatient(!)--I would have entered at 7:51 a.m. at 1296.50 instead of 6:30 a.m. at 1294.
So, what if it had kept going much past 1198? Well, if it had, it's hard for me to imagine that my short conditions would have remained in force. In fact, I don't see how it's possible. But if it had continued on up, that would have meant that my confident read of the conditions at 1196 were completely wrong. I would have had no choice but to take my medicine and close the trade.
I would have also, perhaps, learned a lesson about staying in trades that shouldn't have been entered into in the first place. Perhaps that lesson awaits for another day.
Hurricane or Tortoise, its hard for me to understand what Phantom is saying in above paragraph. I am sure you can appreciate it as it took you some years to understand this yourself.
Will you please explain it more gently/detailed fashion as to what phantom is saying here. Thanks a bunch!
ok, got the break...
...now do we head for the 90+ or back off to 84???
shorting 88
pulling the order. can't see the risk at this level.
cl took a nice header.
wow that was a boom! Must have been some news out of Iran - but you will generally expect it to rally on war mongering.
Maybe iran said they are surrendering, causing breakdown in oil
haha1) It seems thats the reason that pulled down ES with it due to correlation. but looking at tepid movement in ES compared to CL, seems we are going to climb back up.
2) Another interpretation could be - CL pit is closing - so it is a harbinger of things to come in ES - a meltdown that will happen between 3 and 4 pm.
Don't know which version is correct.
Edit: No action in AUD and EUR and bonds....so I will still go long ES (thats my position btw)
- Status