ES Journal - 2012

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It's entirely possible we will stay in this 83 to 86 range now for another 1.5 hours until beige book at 2pm. Would the market break one direction first before that information? Maybe but is it likely to be a real break? Probably not, IMO. What do you think guys?
 
Quote from JoshDance:

It's a bitch sometimes ain't it .. :-\ 86.25 is one tick above yesterday's close, yesterday's VAL, and 86.25 is the initial balance high for the day... stop not safe there, but we never know these things for sure until after the fact.
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yeah price action today has been amazing i must say. Classic fight between bulls and bears. Initial balance high - that is something I don't look at. My rationale for a stop at 86.25 is the morning high (1st runup) and 1 tick above the 3rd runup high (which was 86). So, in my mind, if we go beyond 86 (high of 3rd runup), there is a significant possibility that we might keep going up and that invalidates the short trade.


Just to make things interesting - whats the forum members take on below:

PS: Sometimes I wonder if I was a 100 million trader, what effect will it have to throw 5000 contracts on the market in 3 minutes during lunch hours - will it cause a flashcrash or just a spike to reverse back on me and destroy my account :)

Edit: 3 min is too long, lets make it 30 seconds....and 10000 contracts (should lead to at least 5 big points move in ES imo)
 
Quote from gmst:

yeah price action today has been amazing i must say. Classic fight between bulls and bears. Initial balance high - that is something I don't look at. My rationale for a stop at 86.25 is the morning high (1st runup) and 1 tick above the 3rd runup high (which was 86). So, in my mind, if we go beyond 86 (high of 3rd runup), there is a significant possibility that we might keep going up and that invalidates the short trade.


Just to make things interesting - whats the forum members take on below:

PS: Sometimes I wonder if I was a 100 million trader, what effect will it have to throw 5000 contracts on the market in 3 minutes during lunch hours - will it cause a flashcrash or just a spike to reverse back on me and destroy my account :)

Edit: 3 min is too long, lets make it 30 seconds....and 10000 contracts (should lead to at least 5 big points move in ES imo)
More...

i think somebody wants us to think this is bullish. then they close the gap on us

how about this scenario..they walk this down carefully to LOD, almost to point we don't even notice then drop hard and fast to close gap before we can even move our mouse?

just thinking out loud here :confused:
 
Quote from bigsnack:

I have a pretty strong suspicion that this thing will grind up to 90's.
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Price is forming visually clear higher lows, and highs in the same region.
 
the move is coming,they have to unload the cargo(longs) and reload(shorts) first takes longer in low volume,mom and pop quit playing,,the ship is at the dock
 
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