ES Journal - 2012

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Quote from JoshDance:

Bearish flags? Maybe you can post a chart. All I see is up.

What I see is a break north out of the accepted value from last week (70ish to 78ish, per my last chart posted). Still below last week's high (by a couple of ticks now), but breaking out of that is quite objectively, if I may say so, bullish. We are 6 points north of the close of a 9 point range day, in Asian-only trading. Seems bullish to me. I would fully expect a retest of 75-78, but not sure a "bear flag" means much. Just my 2 cents.
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Quote from Lawrence Chan:

The breadth reading was actually very bearish but no weaknesses showing from the ES chart.

Only hint was that NQ probably wants a deeper pullback.

But the real reason for the break out is this,
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/china...ng-bubble-will-actively-push-investors-stocks

It is a game changing / rule bending situation.

Will be difficult to deal with over the coming few weeks when normal mkt mechanism is not allowed.
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Thanks for the inputs. Here's what I'm seeing:

> Huge divergence in Accl/Dis and price. This is usually the best flag, since it doesn't happen as often as the others. It's not just a volume story, it shows nobody's buying despite the stock going up more than usual.
> Several (> 5) points where price makes a new high, but MACD does not in the past 30 hours
> Price divergences in CMO, RSI, MFI, CMFI (standard money flow indicators)

I am inclined to trade (as cautious as usual) for a trend down of any size today, when/if it happens, and for the following smaller 'smoking gun' upwards too.
 
thanks tenthousandmen--a picture is worth a thousand words, chart perhaps?

My immediate response is, god himself could be telling you to short, but look at price, man. What do you see? I can see chop or rotation around new value around the 85 to 95 area, sure. But trend down? Anything can happen, but objectively I see no reason to draw that conclusion. In fact, by the common definition I would use, it is far too late already for a trend down day, even if it starts going down now.
 
Quote from bigsnack:

Crap, I thought that was going to happen. When the TICK opens bullish (+600), usually the pullbacks are to the 0 line at best.
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Are you buying 89s B? Seems right up your alley... I'm not convinced enough yet with this order flow to buy so I'm waiting.
 
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ayup....gonna wander aimlessly for a bit with fear and greed.

Through my eyes I see the past.
 
Volume on pace this half hour to be about 30% less than the 20d median for this half hour period, and on the day so far about 15% less than usual. Not what I want to see if I'm looking for new highs.
 
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