ES Journal - 2012

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again, where is everyone, s the 78 and let it ride. ism and mother gap up is easiest fade in the world - this isn't like NOv 28th. shutting down now is eating like a bird and pooping like an elephant.

cracked into 1271
 
Quote from satchel:

yeah well, you are wrong, get some years of screen time and you will see the patterns over and over.
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yes, probably, almost always. But not a question of IF this will bounce but WHERE? agreed? it always bounces,a question of pain threshold and conviction from there

in THIS instance..how much you willing to give back off your very nice short?
 
Quote from satchel:

yeah well, you are wrong, get some years of screen time and you will see the patterns over and over.
More...

Nice job so far satchel, great patience. I saw nothing objectively that led me to think a short was in order. After a 20 point gap up, we opened the RTH with buying, retraced, and aggressively bought and came within a tick of the globex high. Then we retraced on low volume, and the 77 that was resistance held as support, and this was near the 50% of the move up from the last swing low, and it touched the RTH VWAP. Nothing about the scenario says yet to short to me, to that point. I know that it's difficult to objectively explain a short trade there based on your years of screen time (after all some of the best trades go against what appears to be obvious), but can you give anything objective that you saw that would indicate a short, at the time you shorted?

EDIT: as I read this, I realize that I said earlier:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3403226#post3403226

Is this my gut telling me to short, or at least consider it more strongly? Sometimes my gut wins, but sometimes it gets me in trouble.
 
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