Why not?
We could top out in this zone.
IMO, we should not trade much below 38, if at all, if we're to make new highs today.
I adjusted my stop to 38. Could be the low retrace, but will get back in long if I believe I was trapped out.
ES Journal - 2012
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Why not?
We could top out in this zone.
IMO, we should not trade much below 38, if at all, if we're to make new highs today.
I adjusted my stop to 38. Could be the low retrace, but will get back in long if I believe I was trapped out.
price just slowly cycles up.. even without any progress .. lol excuses... to take price higher everyday.. its manipulated market by the central banks..
the last earnings cycle was very dissappointing.. it doesnt matter if you can keep printing money .. and buy each others bonds, and support equities.
Its been working so far, but the free crack is addictive to markets, and the markets become disjointed from reality. The government becomes buyer of last resort for almost all securities they wish to support.
Historically unprecedented.
the last earnings cycle was very dissappointing.. it doesnt matter if you can keep printing money .. and buy each others bonds, and support equities.
Its been working so far, but the free crack is addictive to markets, and the markets become disjointed from reality. The government becomes buyer of last resort for almost all securities they wish to support.
Historically unprecedented.
Is there anyone who follows SPY here who can say what that correlates with on ES?
I have the gap at 46,75 on ES.
The close on 18th of October.
I only have delayed SPY data.
I always use a wide disaster stop. it is 32 in this case. That will get hit only if some news hits the wires. Otherwise if we do start trading lower and price action seems not good, I will manually exit.
Your argument that we should not trade much below 38 if we want to make new highs today is correct for "majority of the days". But historically many days exist in which price does retrace quite a bit and then makes a new high. Yesterday is an example.
Getting hit by small stops on all those days and losing little bit of money (compared to using a little wider stop and not get hit and making money) - end result is overall performance degrades in a massive way. Not only does the overall PL suffers, but DD also increases. None of this is "what I think" - I am "stating facts" that I have learnt doing hours of backtesting.
Ready to rip now. Let's get paid, gmst.
I`m thinking there's a good chance we can trade up to 1450 provided we make new highs.
If so, I should hold it and move my stop to BE or I could take a more certain profit at say 1444-45 and secure a green day.
I`m thinking there's a good chance we can trade up to 1450 provided we make new highs.
If so, I should hold it and move my stop to BE or I could take a more certain profit at say 1444-45 and secure a green day.
Cont...
So, yes you are correct because putting a stop below 38 would be correct on most of the days. But the days on which it will get hit and price will come back will cause a massive dent in PL and increase DD. So, statistically speaking ( and if one can execute in the same way over the long term so that statistics can come into play, having a wider stop in such cases is better.
However and this is important, if one's execution changes from month to month, well statistics don't play themselves out.
So, yes you are correct because putting a stop below 38 would be correct on most of the days. But the days on which it will get hit and price will come back will cause a massive dent in PL and increase DD. So, statistically speaking ( and if one can execute in the same way over the long term so that statistics can come into play, having a wider stop in such cases is better.
However and this is important, if one's execution changes from month to month, well statistics don't play themselves out.
Did you not take some major losses these days on wide stops and averaging a losing position? Would you not have been better off if you took a small loss and reversed for example?
Personally, I'd rather take a 3 point stop out, get back in at the stop out price for a 3 point improved entry if I`m convinced I was trapped out wrongly on the initial trade. The improved price should make up for the loss and I managed risk by not allowing a 10 point retrace. I trade off technical targets and it does not make sense to put the stop beyond those. At least not for me.
Anything can happen. Even a 32 point drop. For someone who averages say 3-5 ES points per day, that eats massively into profits even if it happens only once in a blue moon.
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