before globex and before computers were generating multi day charts to the public, that virgin nip would be your next support on a hand chart and would hit 75% of the time the other 25% it would blow thru,if you had a box on short the same put and call spread,you could lift the long legs and ride this to a windfall
dan, if you are going to go counter trend,don't do it on a trend day,and wait for a support area,22 23 broken, next supp 17..you could be right but you will be right more often when the odds are not against you
Dan, please heed the advice Ammo has given you. The market could well rip higher, but that's luck Dan. We want to make our own luck by trading on the side of the internals. Today we have a very negative advance-decline ~-2000. The 50% weekly retrace is just below us at 1850. Why not use an opportunity to escape from your trade unscathed, if it comes, wait for the rip you are guessing would happen and then get in on the side of the market, i.e., short, and wait for the inevitable 18.50. Just my thought Dan. And if the market won't let you in on your terms, well nothing ventured, nothing lost. There will be many more days.