Wait...does @franT now owe me a pizza/cookie combination? I can't imagine the good sweetness of a delicious franT bakery cookie would jive with a pepperoni pie but I'm willing to give it a whirl....franT?
ES HAS TOPPED
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Chart/price/indicator combo shows that we are out of steam in this area and due for pullback.What's your rationale for this?
Personally, I think you're wrong and that we'll see new highs soon.
The /ES on the has spent 14 consecutive weeks with weekly lows above the 20-week EMA...this is the 2nd longest streak in the history of the Emini, with the longest streak being 26 consecutive weeks in 2003 - however, in 2003 we were in the very early innings of the 2003-2007 bull market, whereas this current rally is occurring very late in this 8-year bull trend....so in other words, stocks are in an unusually bullish state right now. The /ES would have to get down to 2380 to touch the EMA and end the current streak. I think there is a very good chance we test down there first before going too much higher.
Saying it's topped is no great shakes.
But "It will reach 2320 prior to hitting 2512..." is, at least, testable. Verifiable. (As opposed to saying "2430" and being wrong for weeks and weeks before you admit it...)
Still, on an empirical basis, it's pretty wide at (roughly) 75 pts.up, and 115 down. That's a 3% rise versus a 4.7% fall. Over time (and I have not tested this, but I've got the data and, nearly, a window of time to whip it out...)....... I'd bet it's about 50|50 for a +3%|-4.7% move.
I don't know.
I don't know.
Interesting...
We've been stair-stepping for ~18 months now -- and I think we're ending one of those "step" levels -- but rather than gearing up for another pop, I think we could end up with broader intra-step swings -- say from 2370 -- 2450. We certainly have the excuses, as far as Usual Market Move Suspects.
I have money at 2350 on bottom, and 2475 on top, for Jul21, so I mostly don't have a dog in the hunt. (If I *did* have a dog, it'd be named Rollin'. Get it? "Rollin'"???? I crack me up....)
But "It will reach 2320 prior to hitting 2512..." is, at least, testable. Verifiable. (As opposed to saying "2430" and being wrong for weeks and weeks before you admit it...)
Still, on an empirical basis, it's pretty wide at (roughly) 75 pts.up, and 115 down. That's a 3% rise versus a 4.7% fall. Over time (and I have not tested this, but I've got the data and, nearly, a window of time to whip it out...)....... I'd bet it's about 50|50 for a +3%|-4.7% move.
I don't know.
I don't know.
Interesting...
We've been stair-stepping for ~18 months now -- and I think we're ending one of those "step" levels -- but rather than gearing up for another pop, I think we could end up with broader intra-step swings -- say from 2370 -- 2450. We certainly have the excuses, as far as Usual Market Move Suspects.
I have money at 2350 on bottom, and 2475 on top, for Jul21, so I mostly don't have a dog in the hunt. (If I *did* have a dog, it'd be named Rollin'. Get it? "Rollin'"???? I crack me up....)
I gotta say, I don't see it.
Tech is holding mid-April to early-May S/R levels, they're overbought, and otherwise show signs of bulls making cautious moves in. I'm also seeing this in the Nasdaq index as well.
Finance is making new highs and edging towards overbought. Taken with the tech bullishness, I'm sorta looking at this as the other side of the coin for the tech pullback. I'm cautious here because this is a bullish breakout / bearish reversal looking for a signal to turn on.
Defensive is looking modestly bearish, which I view as bullish on a systemic level as investors move to greener pastures.
And even the S&P looks like it's got a 2400 S/R level. I see 2380 in play in the near term, but I'd view 2500 more likely than 2350. That said, I'm collared up on my investment positions variously through November / January. And I have a bearish put position over SPX, and bullish basic materials positions. That tells you how tempered my confidence in the above is.
Tech is holding mid-April to early-May S/R levels, they're overbought, and otherwise show signs of bulls making cautious moves in. I'm also seeing this in the Nasdaq index as well.
Finance is making new highs and edging towards overbought. Taken with the tech bullishness, I'm sorta looking at this as the other side of the coin for the tech pullback. I'm cautious here because this is a bullish breakout / bearish reversal looking for a signal to turn on.
Defensive is looking modestly bearish, which I view as bullish on a systemic level as investors move to greener pastures.
And even the S&P looks like it's got a 2400 S/R level. I see 2380 in play in the near term, but I'd view 2500 more likely than 2350. That said, I'm collared up on my investment positions variously through November / January. And I have a bearish put position over SPX, and bullish basic materials positions. That tells you how tempered my confidence in the above is.
Hmmm, the hour between starting and finishing that post challenged my stance on these two. Here's hoping for short-term bearishness followed by recovery towards new highs!
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