ES first 30 mins

[Sprout]

The first 30 minutes of the day make a lot more sense if you consider it a continuation of what was happening just before bell during the previous day. Think about it...

Carryover creates a meaningful context for the start of the next day.

RTH has different characteristics and behavior than extended hours.

A lot of it depends on how one annotates charts and logs the day.

The activity trains perception.

The activity can be based on just observing price movement or a combination of price and volume. One has complete market information, the other does not.

The short channel was set at the end of the prior day by starting with a C turn at 12:55. It confirmed the new short at 1:10. Up until confirmation, the trend could still be long. The dominant short continued at 6:30 the next day until 7am then the long trend segment started with a C turn.

A C turn is when the Dominant price direction and volume changes to it's opposite.

 

[2weels]

I know guys who are done trading by "9 AM Chicago time". And they are trading stocks, and they are doing very well.

I like to go until 11:00 central or so. Then I'm done. (Stock trading. Tried futures. Impossibly boring for me.) The first 15 minutes are the best, but I have a strategy which works into the late morning. Then I'm done.

There is a reason those article writers are writing articles.

Best.

JnB

Off topic, apologies, but how long after you first started did you develop that winning strategy?

 

[jnbadger]

Off topic, apologies, but how long after you first started did you develop that winning strategy?

Many years, but it doesn't need to take that long. I was stubborn and wanted to figure it out, and then I gave in and started asking questions everywhere. But I can't talk much about it, since it was developed after talking quite a bit via PM between myself and a popular member of this forum. It ended up being a hybrid of his method and what I was already thinking.

I've also have developed an addiction to back testing. I honestly think trading is pretty boring, and just a job. But the quest for new ideas gets me excited.

I could be pretty happy just trading the first 15 minutes, but I would feel like I was missing out if I didn't employ the second strategy.

Some guys say you should trade all day if your method works. But my stats tell me when to stop.

 

[fordewind]

I`d add, a better perspective would be, that the first 30 min of the entry, should show if your right or wrong.

 

[murray t turtle]

I'm looking for opinions on the following.
I recently decided to do no trading the first 30 minutes of the regular session. From 8:30 AM to 9 AM Chicago time.
I am now rethinking that. It seems like some of the time I'm better off waiting and some the time I would hot my first winner of the day. Today is an example of that.

You can find a lot of articles that say do not trade the first 30 minutes but I believe those articles are referring to, stock not futures.

Considering the futures trade almost around-the-clock and we have volume in trades before the 830 car. maybe I need to discard this rule.

Opinions ???

%%
I seldom trade then JD; unless they are giving me a big Christmas present/present$ in my swing/position trade....You most likely noticed a ES/SPY reversal from about 8;45-9;10 Chicago time?? NOT a prediction...........................................................................................

 

[Jdesey]

today was yet ANOTHER day that staying out of that first trade saved me a 2 point stop out. I looked at my journal, and it is really obvious. Occasionally I miss a winner, there was one this week, but it is like 1 out of 10 trading days.

 

[HolyMoly]

I love the first 30 minutes of the day. It's normally the time I close most of my stock trades from the previous day. There are so many highs and lows for the day that are met in the first 30 minutes.

 

[punisher]

I'm looking for opinions on the following.
I recently decided to do no trading the first 30 minutes of the regular session. From 8:30 AM to 9 AM Chicago time.
I am now rethinking that. It seems like some of the time I'm better off waiting and some the time I would hot my first winner of the day. Today is an example of that.

You can find a lot of articles that say do not trade the first 30 minutes but I believe those articles are referring to, stock not futures.

Considering the futures trade almost around-the-clock and we have volume in trades before the 830 car. maybe I need to discard this rule.

Opinions ???

Since I know how you trade (more or less) I think that waiting out makes sense in your case. One of the reasons I say that is because of your low R:R ratio (not in general, but to take the risk during that time). The other reason is that overnight indexes trade in correlation to other products and once RTH starts it may be irrelevant what was going on before RTH. So your signals might not be correct. Just my $0.02

 

[truber]

The only edge that the retail trader has is risk management. There is no other edge.

As much as I hate to admit it, you are probably right. I think mostly I'm just not smart enough to find the edge. But then again maybe there is no edge to be found. But I keep looking...

 

[Mtrader]

The only edge that the retail trader has is risk management. There is no other edge.

I daytrade for many years and I'm consistent profitable. I don't use risk management, unless putting a stop at 3 points ES is called risk management. Always go in full 100%, never in steps.
So as I don't use risk management I cannot make money, because according to you the only edge is risk management.

I make money. I am doing something that is impossible according to you. But reality proofs that you are wrong.