ES EOD Momentum...yowza!!

aldrums

aldrums

I don't know about y'all, but I was really pumped up when the market closed on Friday. It was hard to stop thinking about what had just happened. The action in the last hour and a half was amazing, and the action in the last 30 mins was incredible. I track averages of volume in the ES, and I noticed from noon on there was a steady increase...which seemed unusual for a Friday. Then at 14:30 (EST) a crescendo of volume started that went all the way to 16:00.

It seems that after the GDP announcement all the big banks and funds decided they had to be long no matter what, and the breakout above the all-time high was on. I love market action that can't be hidden. You can't spoof this. Everybody is buying and that is all there is to it. However, there were about four small pullbacks in this period that were prime entry points. This kind of volume action gives me confidence that trading with the trend will work.

We probably won't have eod Friday like this again for a few months...but this kind of momentum is something to remember.

Attached is a graph I made of an 11-period MA of the 5 min volume of the ES for 1-26-2018, from 14:30 to 16:00.

-Alex
 

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aldrums said:
I don't know about y'all, but I was really pumped up when the market closed on Friday. It was hard to stop thinking about what had just happened. The action in the last hour and a half was amazing, and the action in the last 30 mins was incredible. I track averages of volume in the ES, and I noticed from noon on there was a steady increase...which seemed unusual for a Friday. Then at 14:30 (EST) a crescendo of volume started that went all the way to 16:00.

It seems that after the GDP announcement all the big banks and funds decided they had to be long no matter what, and the breakout above the all-time high was on. I love market action that can't be hidden. You can't spoof this. Everybody is buying and that is all there is to it. However, there were about four small pullbacks in this period that were prime entry points. This kind of volume action gives me confidence that trading with the trend will work.

We probably won't have eod Friday like this again for a few months...but this kind of momentum is something to remember.

Attached is a graph I made of an 11-period MA of the 5 min volume of the ES for 1-26-2018, from 14:30 to 16:00.

-Alex
More...

Was a big day, yes. There have been some big volume days last week because of Davos and the FOMO train since the New Year. Don't expect it to last for long. Summer is incoming. Without news the S&P is gonna suck, as it always does.
 
Yes, well it did suck for the latter part of last year, but ever since New Years' the market has been going parabolic. Things are definitely different than last year -- it feels different. A big decline sooner than later is not out of the question. The summer of 2008 certainly wasn't boring.
 
As fun as it is, I’m feeling a little exuberence out there.

The charts are showing showing a wide monthly bar on top of a great run.

A little correction starting in the new month, anybody? Or will this run stay strong until ES rollover into June futures?
 
I am feeling you. The amazing thing is the daily pullbacks are getting shallower and shallower, and the gains are getting quicker and quicker. If that isn't a danger signal, what is? When was the last time the ES traded more than a 100 points below its all-time high? As far as I can tell it was right before the election. That was 15 months ago. That is crazy!!
P.S. Okay, wait the night of the election it was down 5%, but that doesn't even show up on the daily SP chart.
 
Fleecing the masses doesn’t just occur with a crash down, it can also occur with a crash up... any magnitude price variance that forces a counter party to a trade to call ‘uncle’ is enough. They key is to enter into a trade or situation where the counter party is leveraged with shallow pockets.

Whose on the other side of the zero sum derivatives?...
 
If market kept doing what it did up until last Friday, the market would have almost doubled by the end of the year. So now in after-hours, ES is down 15 points, with today and tonight, all of Friday's ES gain has been wiped and EUR/USD slightly negative, dollar index holding. Momentum goes both ways.
 
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