ES emini S&P results

L

Lobster

For more than half a year, I have tried to trade ES profitably, and whenever I found something that seemed to work, all my gains were eventually erased and then some.

About a month ago, I started calculating my own indicator, and since then I have done quite a few profitable trades, but I am still very doubtful whether or not this strategy will be profitable consistently.

My question is very simple: Are there people out there who have managed to make an average of 2 points or more per trading day per ES contract after commissions year to date?

If so, I would like to congratulate you and for you to tell us as much as you feel comfortable divulging about your timeframe, indicators/strategies, trade size, number of trades, equity curve, anything that has to do with trading these futures.
 
The move @ 15:30est. from 856 to 840 was 16 pnts. The macro view(huge down day) dictated a high probability of a sell off at days end. I can't imagine anybody wasn't waiting to pounce when it tipped it's hand. You need to search thru these threads and read everything ever said re: futs. Every thing has been said that needs to be said in those threads.
 
Originally posted by Lobster
...I started calculating my own indicator, and since then I have done quite a few profitable trades, but I am still very doubtful whether or not this strategy will be profitable consistently.

My question is very simple: Are there people out there who have managed to make an average of 2 points or more per trading day per ES contract after commissions year to date?

If so, I would like to congratulate you and for you to tell us as much as you feel comfortable divulging about your timeframe, indicators/strategies, trade size, number of trades, equity curve, anything that has to do with trading these futures.
More...

Hi Lobster,

Out of curiousity...can you tell us what timeframe, indicators/strategies, trade size, number of trades, equity curve, anything that has to do with trading the ES emini via your customized indicator?

NihabaAshi
 
Well, the time I am in a trade is generally between 2 and 20 minutes, I am only trading 1 contract until I gather enough data to be reasonably sure my strategy has a chance to work consistently. So far, I have done one or two trades per day, averaging about 2 points per trade with two losers of 1.5 points each, the rest winners between .75 and 4 points each. Therefore, I don't have much data to tell you all about just yet.

As you might have guessed, I try to ride the small waves, I originally intended to focus on low to medium volume, low volatility days, but these past couple of weeks I have found that I can find those small waves even on high volume high volatility days, on such days I just try to make sure I don't go against the trend, but unfortunately I always exit the large moves way too early. It's just that I can't tell the huge drops from tiny oscillations in advance, since I have never been able to develop a "feel" for the ES like I have for individual stocks. They just seem to wiggle around too much, and you can't use volume as an indicator the way you often can with stocks.
 
Originally posted by Lobster
...you can't use volume as an indicator the way you often can with stocks.
More...

Lobster,

With the Eminis...their volume will often provide excellent hints to trade entries and exits when combined with Japanese Candlesticks.

However...the first hour of trading is the time period when volume indicators has no input in any of my trade setups....

because either they just aren't as reliable during this time period or just too difficult to interpret.

I'm just now re-discovering the usefulness of volume when trading the Eminis via the 1min to 3min charts.

You should reconsider volume and study a few past weeks worth of ES charts closely to see if volume has any usefulness to your particular trade setups.

NihabaAshi
 
Originally posted by Lobster
Well, the time I am in a trade is generally between 2 and 20 minutes, I am only trading 1 contract until I gather enough data to be reasonably sure my strategy has a chance to work consistently. So far, I have done one or two trades per day, averaging about 2 points per trade with two losers of 1.5 points each, the rest winners between .75 and 4 points each. Therefore, I don't have much data to tell you all about just yet.

As you might have guessed, I try to ride the small waves, I originally intended to focus on low to medium volume, low volatility days, but these past couple of weeks I have found that I can find those small waves even on high volume high volatility days, on such days I just try to make sure I don't go against the trend, but unfortunately I always exit the large moves way too early. It's just that I can't tell the huge drops from tiny oscillations in advance, since I have never been able to develop a "feel" for the ES like I have for individual stocks. They just seem to wiggle around too much, and you can't use volume as an indicator the way you often can with stocks.
More...

You also have to realize that when the intra-day range picks up or the volatility of the market, it affects all time frames...So this takes alot more adjustment than people realize...For instance, I remember that in early 2000, the average range of the ES on a 5 min chart approached nearly 7 handles for a brief time...If you were accustomed to risking 2 points to make 3-5 points, or whatever your basis was, then you would have found yourself getting whipped alot more...Recently, the markets are returning to that type of volatility again and there is also alot more "noise" even on the micro time frames than there was last month or the month before that(just look at the number of "wicks" on a 5 min chart)...
 
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