ES E-Mini Daily Trades Signals

Quote from WINNERLOSER1:

On 19th JAN they were down 140 points with 19 contracts open ,, They did not just lose they bankrupted the room . They pushed their terrible result under the carpet with posting minus 4 rofl ( when I saw that i was like wtf)

Payman is the name of the main Trader and this is his strategy ,,,

Start with 1 contract and keep adding till the price reverses/ Hopefully the maket turns and you get all your losses back + A WIN lol . HE THANKS GOD for reversal and if the price does not reverse then he apologises to roomies for being tired,,

The Good news is if you join you get a FREE DIARY ..Not bad rofl
I SIMPLY DONOT KNOW HOW THIS MARKET DECEPTION GUY STILL HAS THE GUT TO DEFEND THIER RESULT ,,
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Regarding WinbornTraders I can tell you the following.

I have been in the WinbornTraders trading room that you are talking about. I did a pseudo Monte Carlo analysis of entries based on two month worth of data. The analysis showed that his entries had significant (and impressive) advantage over random trades. I did not perform any mathematical analysis of his exits but it appeared to me that his exits and trade management in general had much room for improvement. In particular, I am not in approval of doubling up or any kind of mingling in trading or anything that has an outcome based on chance.
Overall I found him an honest man with integrity. Regarding Jan 19, you may want to direct your question to him instead of me. Since he started to have registration requirement for his room, I have not been there and I have not had any communication either.

This was WinbornTraders. Now regarding me:
I do not have any trading room and I don't think I will ever have one.
I share some signals based on mathematical analysis of past market data. Some times my predictions are right and sometimes they are wrong. Most of the time I can use these signals to get advantage in my trades regardless of the exact outcome of the signal.
If you can use them, you are welcome to use them. I may discontinue them or change the signals that I am willing to share.
I am not planning to commercialize my signals except for adding possibly one or two from my family circle to my private fund.

This was me. Now regarding you I refer you and others like you to this post by mxjones on 6/13/09


The problem is you get a large group of people in one place who don't take personal responsibility for anything and hope to get rich by doing as little work as possible. They find out that isn't the case, and their already negative, lazy, and hateful mindset gets worse by the day. So these people do nothing but attack others, openly try to stir up conflict and controversy, and eventually drive away the respectful, serious contributors. So guess what is left?

While the moderation of ET lacks something to be desired, I don't think that even if it was perfect it could do anything but slow the progression.

Just like Arnold said in "Terminator 2":

"It's in your nature to destroy yourselves."
 
Trades for Thursday 2/10/2011

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Quote from MarketException:

Regarding WinbornTraders I can tell you the following.

I have been in the WinbornTraders trading room that you are talking about. I did a pseudo Monte Carlo analysis of entries based on two month worth of data. The analysis showed that his entries had significant (and impressive) advantage over random trades. I did not perform any mathematical analysis of his exits but it appeared to me that his exits and trade management in general had much room for improvement. In particular, I am not in approval of doubling up or any kind of mingling in trading or anything that has an outcome based on chance.
Overall I found him an honest man with integrity. Regarding Jan 19, you may want to direct your question to him instead of me. Since he started to have registration requirement for his room, I have not been there and I have not had any communication either.

This was WinbornTraders. Now regarding me:
I do not have any trading room and I don't think I will ever have one.
I share some signals based on mathematical analysis of past market data. Some times my predictions are right and sometimes they are wrong. Most of the time I can use these signals to get advantage in my trades regardless of the exact outcome of the signal.
If you can use them, you are welcome to use them. I may discontinue them or change the signals that I am willing to share.
I am not planning to commercialize my signals except for adding possibly one or two from my family circle to my private fund.

This was me. Now regarding you I refer you and others like you to this post by mxjones on 6/13/09

" [/B]
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It is obvious that that you have fallen out with the main Trader Payman ,, You have been directing people to his room and he does not want to know about you any more ,, Well, The good news is you wont be responsible for people's losses ,,, what goes round comes round ,,

As far as your Monte Carlo analysis to justify the correctness of his entries is concerned , I can correct you to say that you cannot apply Monte Carlo analysis to non stationary data such as time series as they carry information unlike stochastic distribution ,,
Also , what determines the effectiveness of semi hinged deterministic process such as time series is not the entry but the exit. Therefore analysing his entry is of no use what so ever,,.. Entry defines the risk Exit the reward. Nearly all positive expectancy algo's base their optimisation on exit and not entry ..In fact it can he argued mathematically that a random entry could result in a positive expectancy system as shown by Dr Ehler in his book ,,

I suppose what I am trying to say is that your approach to his strategy has no scientific value either to support or reject his strategy,,

Payman does not understand random process ,, one can get a coin and toss up for market direction and still out perform the market for few days but over a large sample he will be Beaton by the market. ( very similar to casino ,, one can have a good run and win in LasVegas for few days but by the year end is 100% out of pocket)

The disaster on 19th of JAN ( bankrupting all the people following him ) was the proof of having a negative expectancy strategy that Payman has which gives all his winning back for 6 month in 1 bad trading day ,,Pyramiding against the market direction is naive and unless you are on HOPIUM you have no chance of out performing the market over a long period,,

After being in his room for few days I can advise him that he has no edge over the market and still an infant as far as trading is concerned ,,

A trader does not need to make money out of other traders if he can out perform the market. I run a nodal displacement neural net work code with various heuristic inputs for a quant firm with near to random entry and still yielding 43% a year net return using 5 different markets,,

I am glad you are distancing yourself from him as there is no future in his way of so called Trading ,, I would call it luck /bad luck system depending on the month ,,,
 
Quote from WINNERLOSER1:


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As far as your Monte Carlo analysis to justify the correctness of his entries is concerned , I can correct you to say that you cannot apply Monte Carlo analysis to non stationary data such as time series as they carry information unlike stochastic distribution ,,
....
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You may be right that the classic Monte Carlo was not applied to time series data. However, there has been tons of research since 1950's in its application to times series. Just google for keywords "Monte Carlo time series".

Now assume there has not been any work on this subject. I said I used psudo Monte Carlo analysis in order to analyze entry prices. An intelligent mind would want to find out more about it. A stupid mind will say this is impossible because no one has done it.
 
Quote from MarketException:

You may be right that the classic Monte Carlo was not applied to time series data. However, there has been tons of research since 1950's in its application to times series. Just google for keywords "Monte Carlo time series".

Now assume there has not been any work on this subject. I said I used psudo Monte Carlo analysis in order to analyze entry prices. An intelligent mind would want to find out more about it. A stupid mind will say this is impossible because no one has done it.
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An intelligent mind would say donot insult other people's intelligence by saying ,, I USED MONTA CARLO ANALYSIS to justifies WINBORNS entries. I think you like to use fancy terminologies you donot understand,, Tell me how did you come up with the conclusion that using MONTA CARLO ANALYSIS can prove one's entry is Good , bad , excellent or terrible lol
Are you making up statistical concepts that they donot exist?
what are your bench marks for these fuzzy levels ?( ie Good , bad , excellent and so on )

But the most important thing you should know is that EVEN A TERRIBLE ENTRY DOES NOT MEAN NEGATIVE EXPECTANCY?

so you cannot evaluate WINBORNS strategy based on entries alone ,,

Any way ,, there is a lot to talk about and if you donot know it then you donot know it ,, not much more i can say or do .. DONOT INSIST ON IGNORANCE it never pays ,,
 
Quote from WINNERLOSER1:


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Any way ,, there is a lot to talk about and if you donot know it then you donot know it ,, not much more i can say or do .. DONOT INSIST ON IGNORANCE it never pays ,,
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Hey buddy you said Monte Carlo Analysis can not be applied to time series and I asked you just do a simple google search on "Monte Carlo Time Series". Did you do it? Who is insisting on being ignorant? Can you admit that Monte Carlo can be applied to times series? Its very simple, all you need to do is a google search. Otherwise I can not have any discussion with you. You are not really discussing. You are wrestling.
Obviously you are not willing to learn anything and I am not enjoying to response to your cynical nonsense such as suggesting the effectiveness of a trade is not based on entry but on the exit alone.
I do not have time for any more wrestling with you.
 
It is obvious your "system" does not work and any claims that you are doing much better on your own account are not to be believed. Your own data proves this.

I am of the opinion that trading indexes using a "system" is always a losing strategy. I highly doubt you can outperform the simple idea of buying the index in a bull market and holding until a clear change in trend occurs.

One obvious buying opportunity last year was at 1041 on the S&P 500. We are now at 1329. That's a 28% return since early September. So anything less then a 28% return trading indexes in that time period is a failed system.

ps I have no grudge against you I just don't understand people pushing these systems that clearly don't work very well.
 
Saying his system doesn't work very well is giving him credit. He has lost a massive number of points over the last few months.
 
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