Quote from Peternam:
Marketexception ,
How much points did you make since inception and what is your profit factor ?
I usually do a lot better than the mechanical system I report. The reason being, at the time of trading I can decide on several important factors such as determining stops/targets, adding or reducing contracts, multiple entries and exits, etc. better than the night before, when I come up with the signals.x
For example, yesterday the system made 4.5 points but I made 11 points.
Since inception, this mechanical system system (and not me) has had a profit factor of 2.8. Since I started to report it here in this forum it is probably close to break even.
Basically this system is based on identifying price actions around yesterday's important levels and look back in the history (13 years) for similar actions under similar market parameters.
Sometimes in October 2010, I decided to refine the definition of market parameters for the system in order to target more specific scenarios (more of a bullet rather than shut gun). My goal was to gain more accuracy but in the process, I lowered the sample sizes to a point that I crossed the reliability(confidence) line. As a result, this system had a series of losses.
I then eliminated the least reliable set of signals. I am in the process of redefining market parameters for the system, this time hopefully more careful. The goal is to increase the number of signals and increase confidence without losing too much accuracy.
