ES E-Mini Daily Trades Signals

Signals for Friday 10/22/2010:

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Quote from lurefo:

~ How to spot a guru/signal vendor, for newbies ~


They avoid taking responsability for their losses as often as possible. Losses are connected to being wrong for many, especially the noobs. It's bad for business. So, they blame the market, the bots, the big boys, the ppt, the weather, or in this case the news.



They will always try and take advantage of a loss and make it look like a win. "you see I was right! it's the news that hit our stop, othewise it would have been a winner because I was right on the direction!" of course they can run this scam half the time on losses.



Here is the best part folks. Read again his words, everything is in there.

Gurus/signal vendors like marketexception always blame the market for their losses. They always find excuses like "unpredictable fluctuation"or" unpredictable news", etc and take credit when it goes back in the predicted direction after it hits the stoploss.

Let me tell you right now: in trading, people who think like him are in the wrong business. Trading is all a out making money, not being right. Short term it can work and create the sweet illusion it's a winning state of mind but the truth is they don't make it in the long haul because they think it's about trying to predict the direction and being right. This is the pathology of individuals with a big ego who can't handle it and the market proves sooner or later they have the worst possible mind state to succeed in trading. That's why winborn and this shill need to have a signal service.

Manipulation 101.
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This should be a "sticky". :cool:

Nicely done lurefo.....but some folks just HAVE to be seperated from their money. Such is the world.
 
Quote from Trvlwanderer:

This should be a "sticky". :cool:

Nicely done lurefo.....but some folks just HAVE to be seperated from their money. Such is the world.
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We have had 5 trades and one loss so far since I reported my system here. I have had excellent win rate and profit in this 5 trades. I agree that 5 trades is not enough to establish a high level of confidence in any system. But I invite to to stay tuned and just observe the performance. Don't listen to me or others just evaluate the signals for yourself.
 
LOL. Are you still following winborns trades?

Fraud.

Tip: Change aliases, post signals without making the snakeoil excuses (market noise, freak news event, fedspeak etc.), don't stick up for you alter ego as a new poster, and state up-front you are going to eventually sell the "signals" for those "getting it".

:cool:
 
Quote from MarketException:

If you come up with a strategy to randomly buy or sell and always have a fixed stop and target this is going to be your long term result:

Profit Factor = 1
Win Rate = nS/(nT + nS) ; Where nT = Target, nS = Stop

If you simulate it on a computer you get the same thing, but there is even no need to simulate because you can solve it analytically very simply.
Anyone with just a tiny bit of knowledge in statistics and probability or even a bit of common sense can derive the above result.

The profit factor is always 1 which means your total win and loss are equal. The win rate depends on how your stop and targets are set.
If stop and target are the same then the win rate would be 50%. If stop is double the target then you win two times the losses but the amount of each win is half the loss.
So if the stop is set at 1 point and Target at 3 points:
Win rate = nS/(nT + nS) = 1/(1 + 3) = 1/4 = 25%

So no matter how you pick your stop/target, it will be always an even strategy if we do not take the slippage or commission into account. Since in real world you have to pay for slippage and commission, any random entry with any fixed stop/target combination is always a loser.

It is just so stupid to try to test a simplistic strategy such as a random entry and fixed stop/target in real time.
2 + 2 = 4. But if one can not add, then he may use apples to count the result.
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What is this talk of slippage? Now I know you're winborn, because you don't even know how a trade executes.

Anyway, the only point of my post was to simply take the exact opposite of each of your calls, with a proper risk/ reward ratio, to show that something as simple as a proper risk/ reward ratio would beat your snake oil.

I'll just check back in a few weeks and look at the results.
 
since you are here to help new folks.............

Let's say I am new.

Please explain signal 1 and 2. There seems to be a conflict.

Do I sell at open or do I wait for it to go to 1175.75 and then sell at 1176.25?

1186.25 will be a signal for both signal # 1 and # 2, but the instructions contradict each other.

Please try to explain to this newb before the opening bell.

I know you are watching this thread by the second.
 
Ok, opened at 1178.25 so..............

Use signal 1 : SELL at market open (1178.25), tgt 1175.50, stop at 5.75 points (1184).

We have a risk of 5.75 points.

We have a reward of 2.75 points.

Let's see how this plays out.

Close.....touched the target of 1175.50, but would not have filled.
 
Ok, so now what?

The target DID NOT get filled.

The stop DID NOT get filled.

What is a new trader looking for signals on an internet message board supposed to do now?

The trade is IN THE RED.

Edit: Damn internet GURU's, always around to post the teaser or make excuses while they post the next one, but never really around when the "client" (sheep / follower / lemming / sucker) has a question or problem.

I guess we will turn this into a "buy and hold" since we are 2.25 points RED.
 
Quote from Trvlwanderer:

since you are here to help new folks.............

Let's say I am new.

Please explain signal 1 and 2. There seems to be a conflict.

Do I sell at open or do I wait for it to go to 1175.75 and then sell at 1176.25?

1186.25 will be a signal for both signal # 1 and # 2, but the instructions contradict each other.

Please try to explain to this newb before the opening bell.

I know you are watching this thread by the second.
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Signal #1 and #2 are two different signals. I do not see any conflict here. Signal #1 triggered today but #2 did not trigger.
If they both triggered, you would enter #1 and once you exit, you would expect a pull back to enter # 2. This is how I trade them and I usually get a bit better than the signals. But how can I put the concept of a pull back into a number. 0.5 to 0.75 point is almost certain. But optimal pull back is really related to the price action at the time.
Since I place this signals a day earlier, I can not predict the pull back with any acceptable confidence. So I pick a minimal pull back. As a trader you probably decide a better amount on the spot.
I hope my reply was helpful and sorry to miss your question on time.

BTW, I am not here to help newbies as you mentioned. I am here to share my signals and have a positive discussion about it, whether newbie or not. Anyone is welcome to look at them, understand them, discuss them, and see if we can make any improvement on them.
 
Quote from MarketException:

... since I reported my system here. I have had excellent win rate and profit in this 5 trades. I agree that 5 trades is not enough to establish a high level of confidence in any system. But I invite to to stay tuned and just observe the performance. Don't listen to me or others just evaluate the signals for yourself.
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Then we can market you, sign up clueless newbies or desperate paper traders, and try, all the while convincing ET that we are not spammers...
 
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