On Wednesday market opened at 1164.75. It was in the zone to trade but the potential profit was too small. So I did not trade this signal.
ES E-Mini Daily Trades Signals
- Thread starter MarketException
- Start date
Trades for Thursday 10/21/2010:
Use the levels to adjust your stops and targets.
All levels are exclusive.
Use the levels to adjust your stops and targets.
All levels are exclusive.
My Signals for today were:
Two of our signals triggered today.
My Signal # 3 Triggered at 12:46 and resulted in a profit of 4.5 points.
My Signal #1 was triggered at the open. The market went side ways until the news was out at 10:00 AM. News fluctuation caused this signal to hit our stop. It should be noted that after the news settled, the market continued in the direction that was predicted by this signal to hit our target at 1175.00. But in any case we had a loos of 5.5 point. I prefer to have a loss in my signal because of unpredictable fluctuation but observe the direction after the fluctuation is the one that was predicted, than to have a win because of the fluctuation only.
Anytime there is a major news, any pre-calculated system such as this one may fail, because the news effect is pretty much random unless you have inside information. You can either do not trade, get out of the market before the news, or you can take control over the trade and manage it according to the condition. Today, once I observed the market reaction to the news, I reversed and made my loss into a small profit and waited for the next signal.
So the systems total P/L for today is 4.5 - 5.5 = -1 point.
I deduct 1 tick for every trade to cover possible future questionable fills so:
# of trades = 5
Total P/L = 7.5 -1 - 2 * 0.25 = 6
Total Win = 12
Total Loss = 5.5
Profit factor 2.18
% Win = 80%
Two of our signals triggered today.
My Signal # 3 Triggered at 12:46 and resulted in a profit of 4.5 points.
My Signal #1 was triggered at the open. The market went side ways until the news was out at 10:00 AM. News fluctuation caused this signal to hit our stop. It should be noted that after the news settled, the market continued in the direction that was predicted by this signal to hit our target at 1175.00. But in any case we had a loos of 5.5 point. I prefer to have a loss in my signal because of unpredictable fluctuation but observe the direction after the fluctuation is the one that was predicted, than to have a win because of the fluctuation only.
Anytime there is a major news, any pre-calculated system such as this one may fail, because the news effect is pretty much random unless you have inside information. You can either do not trade, get out of the market before the news, or you can take control over the trade and manage it according to the condition. Today, once I observed the market reaction to the news, I reversed and made my loss into a small profit and waited for the next signal.
So the systems total P/L for today is 4.5 - 5.5 = -1 point.
I deduct 1 tick for every trade to cover possible future questionable fills so:
# of trades = 5
Total P/L = 7.5 -1 - 2 * 0.25 = 6
Total Win = 12
Total Loss = 5.5
Profit factor 2.18
% Win = 80%
This gentleman does not seem to have any honor. He started stating this strategy of going the opposite of my signals on 10/15/2010 but he counts a trade on 10/14/2010 as a win.
Can you go back and make money from yesterday's market actions?
I wish it was that way. We all could be millionaires in one day.
He appears to think everyone is dummy and blind here.
He also reports me as P/L of 2. My total P/L prior to today was 7.5(or 8.25 if we do not deduct any ticks) points. Today I had a loss of -1 as a result of two trades.
So for all my 5 trades so far I have 4 wins and 7.25 points. Since I deduct one tick from each trade as a good faith to cover possible future partial fills, I report it as 6 points instead of 7.25.
You mean, he learned from you?
~ How to spot a guru/signal vendor, for newbies ~
They will always try and take advantage of a loss and make it look like a win. "you see I was right! it's the news that hit our stop, othewise it would have been a winner because I was right on the direction!" of course they can run this scam half the time on losses.
Here is the best part folks. Read again his words, everything is in there.
Gurus/signal vendors like marketexception always blame the market for their losses. They always find excuses like "unpredictable fluctuation"or" unpredictable news", etc and take credit when it goes back in the predicted direction after it hits the stoploss.
Let me tell you right now: in trading, people who think like him are in the wrong business. Trading is all about making money, not being right. Short term it can work and create the sweet illusion it's a winning state of mind but the truth is they don't make it in the long haul because they think it's about trying to predict the direction and being right. This is the pathology of individuals with a big ego who can't handle it and the market proves sooner or later they have the worst possible mind state to succeed in trading. That's why winborn and this shill need to have a signal service.
Manipulation 101.
They avoid taking responsability for their losses as often as possible. Losses are connected to being wrong for many, especially the noobs. It's bad for business. So, they blame the market, the bots, the big boys, the ppt, the weather, or in this case the news.
They will always try and take advantage of a loss and make it look like a win. "you see I was right! it's the news that hit our stop, othewise it would have been a winner because I was right on the direction!" of course they can run this scam half the time on losses.
Here is the best part folks. Read again his words, everything is in there.
Gurus/signal vendors like marketexception always blame the market for their losses. They always find excuses like "unpredictable fluctuation"or" unpredictable news", etc and take credit when it goes back in the predicted direction after it hits the stoploss.
Let me tell you right now: in trading, people who think like him are in the wrong business. Trading is all about making money, not being right. Short term it can work and create the sweet illusion it's a winning state of mind but the truth is they don't make it in the long haul because they think it's about trying to predict the direction and being right. This is the pathology of individuals with a big ego who can't handle it and the market proves sooner or later they have the worst possible mind state to succeed in trading. That's why winborn and this shill need to have a signal service.
Manipulation 101.
If you come up with a strategy to randomly buy or sell and always have a fixed stop and target this is going to be your long term result:
Profit Factor = 1
Win Rate = nS/(nT + nS) ; Where nT = Target, nS = Stop
If you simulate it on a computer you get the same thing, but there is even no need to simulate because you can solve it analytically very simply.
Anyone with just a tiny bit of knowledge in statistics and probability or even a bit of common sense can derive the above result.
The profit factor is always 1 which means your total win and loss are equal. The win rate depends on how your stop and targets are set.
If stop and target are the same then the win rate would be 50%. If stop is double the target then you win two times the losses but the amount of each win is half the loss.
So if the stop is set at 1 point and Target at 3 points:
Win rate = nS/(nT + nS) = 1/(1 + 3) = 1/4 = 25%
So no matter how you pick your stop/target, it will be always an even strategy if we do not take the slippage or commission into account. Since in real world you have to pay for slippage and commission, any random entry with any fixed stop/target combination is always a loser.
It is just so stupid to try to test a simplistic strategy such as a random entry and fixed stop/target in real time.
2 + 2 = 4. But if one can not add, then he may use apples to count the result.
Profit Factor = 1
Win Rate = nS/(nT + nS) ; Where nT = Target, nS = Stop
If you simulate it on a computer you get the same thing, but there is even no need to simulate because you can solve it analytically very simply.
Anyone with just a tiny bit of knowledge in statistics and probability or even a bit of common sense can derive the above result.
The profit factor is always 1 which means your total win and loss are equal. The win rate depends on how your stop and targets are set.
If stop and target are the same then the win rate would be 50%. If stop is double the target then you win two times the losses but the amount of each win is half the loss.
So if the stop is set at 1 point and Target at 3 points:
Win rate = nS/(nT + nS) = 1/(1 + 3) = 1/4 = 25%
So no matter how you pick your stop/target, it will be always an even strategy if we do not take the slippage or commission into account. Since in real world you have to pay for slippage and commission, any random entry with any fixed stop/target combination is always a loser.
It is just so stupid to try to test a simplistic strategy such as a random entry and fixed stop/target in real time.
2 + 2 = 4. But if one can not add, then he may use apples to count the result.