ES current view

[Wallace]

Simple, the ES will rally up to the Dec 2021 High around 4,800 before the year end.



There's a large 4 W formation Oct '22 -Mar '23 , I count that as Ws 1 &2 of - what ?
a 3 , or 5 Ws, doesn't really matter actually.

The price has gone up from Mar '23 in what could be 5 Ws, topping Jul 24 .

What's going on now ?

The price has fallen from 4,600 to 4,350 , risen and was holding around 4,500 , expect
the decline to continue until . . .

Fed on the 20th - Sell now on rumour - Buy on news - W4/abc completes on the 20th.

If the Fed don't raise, rally, if the Fed do raise, so what, rally.

I don't expect the price to rally until after the Fed, but . . . I've been known to be wrong.



Presuming the price goes to 4,800 . . .
I favor a decline, a Reversal formation top will have completed so a decline will begin
taking over '24 down to 3,500 again, or lower.

 

[CannonTrading_Ilan]

Weekly chart the way I see it tends to agree with the above....but like @Wallace said "I have been wrong before ( many times....)

 

[Wallace]

Ilan Levy-Mayer, what a wonderful chart, EW alive and well, and EW works ! who could
ask for more.
You do a marvelous job of promoting CQG's charting - their 3 levels of Resistance,
what WOULD you do without them ?

 

[CannonTrading_Ilan]

Ilan Levy-Mayer, what a wonderful chart, EW alive and well, and EW works ! who could
ask for more.
You do a marvelous job of promoting CQG's charting - their 3 levels of Resistance,
what WOULD you do without them ?

I would be lost....I am a big fan of CQG and a client since the 90's.....
However, that being said the CQG IC is mostly for institutions because of the monthly cost . I think for most retail clients, CQG Q trader, Sierra charts, motivewaves and a few other platforms including our free E-Futures are excellent alternatives.

 

[murray t turtle]

%%
Like SPY benchmark;
ES is rated 8 % buy which is a 92% sell. barchart.com
SPY cash is a sell on 50dma, not a stock tip or prediction.

 

[Tall Mike]

Its pretty simple - ES as a positive drift especially from October to year-end. Just go long after this next pullback - layup trade.

The fundamentals and news does nothing to your analysis besides add confirmation bias.

You don't even have to look at a chart to know the odds are in your favor if you are long ES going into year end.

 

[mervyn]

Its pretty simple - ES as a positive drift especially from October to year-end. Just go long after this next pullback - layup trade.

The fundamentals and news does nothing to your analysis besides add confirmation bias.

You don't even have to look at a chart to know the odds are in your favor if you are long ES going into year end.

i don't want to predict but bet the differ.

holiday rally would start 2 weeks before thanksgiving, last year pre-chrismas topped on the 13th, it was an almost 250 points roller coaster down for the rest of the year, just pulled out from a technically bear market.

 

[murray t turtle]

i don't want to predict but bet the differ.

holiday rally would start 2 weeks before thanksgiving, last year pre-chrismas topped on the 13th, it was an almost 250 points roller coaster down for the rest of the year, just pulled out from a technically bear market.

%%
LOL I think its beg to differ\
still looks bearish thru FRI close. SPY anyway, Sept anyway.
Problem with OCT it can be a daytraders paradise, unless it makes bottom$ early before mid month...............WE cant know that until mid month

 

[mervyn]

%%
LOL I think its beg to differ\
still looks bearish thru FRI close. SPY anyway, Sept anyway.
Problem with OCT it can be a daytraders paradise, unless it makes bottom$ early before mid month...............WE cant know that until mid month

this year end will repeat the pattern, go down.

the market shot up so much already, 16% spx, 32% ndx, maybe dow has a little bit room at 4% but i doubt it.

i may chase the high a little with significantly reduced posistions, wait for 2024.

 

[murray t turtle]

this year end will repeat the pattern, go down.

the market shot up so much already, 16% spx, 32% ndx, maybe dow has a little bit room at 4% but i doubt it.

i may chase the high a little with significantly reduced posistions, wait for 2024.

%%
MAYBE\ SPY\ still down for week\down below 50 dma ;SPXS, SDS + SPXU up, weekly , not in those @ moment.
LOOKING @ 2023 SPY chart + 2023 is much better %;
but 2015 SEPT-DEC bottom was in by 1st week in SEPT.......
DOW [DIA] tends to underperform SPY + QQQ=almost always LOL