my apologies for the 'ES WARNING - new lows coming' thread
i shouldn't have posted the thread titled as it was - sensationalism
it only concerned the current correction, and
the chart didn't explain much
these days i'm concentrating on the 6E/eurusd and i'm afraid i was overly influenced by
my euro analysis, believing the ES would correct as the euro might, and while the euro
did sell off, the ES as you know made new highs, however i still expect new lows on the
ES etc after the current correction completes
i hope this thread clears things up and provides a better explanation of what i think is
going on
when the markets topped this January it was after closing on a major 61.8 level, near the
longer measured 50, and just above 161.8 and 176.4 levels from projection fibos
together, all these fibos levels provided a major signal the markets had topped - or at
least peaked for the time being
the first chart is a Weekly and illustrates what i'm talking about
there's only 2 highs to draw the correction fibos from, the HH of wk of Oct 12/07 and the
lower wk of May 23/08 which is the high used to draw the fibo from that produced the
61.8 level the market turned on during January 11 - 20
it's debatable which projection fibo is the correct one, the black or white
and while the grey correction 50 level comes close, the blue 61.8 level gets the cigar
second chart is a Daily, blue correction fibo from Weekly is now grey
blue correction fibo shows LL price bounced - almost - off the 38.2 level, while it Closed
on the grey 50 level, and is now rising to the blue 23.6 level
the white projection fibos indicate price drops to 1020 and the 970 area which is bounded
by the blue 61.8 and grey 38.2 levels. dates and wave counts are tentative
third chart is 4 hour of the March ES contract displaying retracement fibos and Standard
Error Channels
there are several alternatives concerning what the price may do both in the short term
correction as well as longer term
correction: on the 4H, the price could rally to the 76.4 level, 85.4/white 50 level or even
back up to the Feb 2 high (no 'new lows coming') before beginning a downtrend to new
lows, which could begin after an announcement on Feb 16/17 by the EU ministers re the
Greek debt - or is that too eurocentric to be applied to the ES ?
price doesn't go higher, will start to drop after the London open ? Sun/Mon Feb 14/15;
price drops until the EU Greek announcement 15/16 then rallies, correction over, drops
longer term: the price could base and rally back up to the Jan 11 high forming a reversal
formation - major major top, but multi-week process
decline, base and rally to a new high, possibly 1230-60 area, and then the old addage -
'sell in May and go away' - a note that Greece has debt refunding issues April/May
THE top is in and it's going to hell
i shouldn't have posted the thread titled as it was - sensationalism
it only concerned the current correction, and
the chart didn't explain much
these days i'm concentrating on the 6E/eurusd and i'm afraid i was overly influenced by
my euro analysis, believing the ES would correct as the euro might, and while the euro
did sell off, the ES as you know made new highs, however i still expect new lows on the
ES etc after the current correction completes
i hope this thread clears things up and provides a better explanation of what i think is
going on
when the markets topped this January it was after closing on a major 61.8 level, near the
longer measured 50, and just above 161.8 and 176.4 levels from projection fibos
together, all these fibos levels provided a major signal the markets had topped - or at
least peaked for the time being
the first chart is a Weekly and illustrates what i'm talking about
there's only 2 highs to draw the correction fibos from, the HH of wk of Oct 12/07 and the
lower wk of May 23/08 which is the high used to draw the fibo from that produced the
61.8 level the market turned on during January 11 - 20
it's debatable which projection fibo is the correct one, the black or white
and while the grey correction 50 level comes close, the blue 61.8 level gets the cigar
second chart is a Daily, blue correction fibo from Weekly is now grey
blue correction fibo shows LL price bounced - almost - off the 38.2 level, while it Closed
on the grey 50 level, and is now rising to the blue 23.6 level
the white projection fibos indicate price drops to 1020 and the 970 area which is bounded
by the blue 61.8 and grey 38.2 levels. dates and wave counts are tentative
third chart is 4 hour of the March ES contract displaying retracement fibos and Standard
Error Channels
there are several alternatives concerning what the price may do both in the short term
correction as well as longer term
correction: on the 4H, the price could rally to the 76.4 level, 85.4/white 50 level or even
back up to the Feb 2 high (no 'new lows coming') before beginning a downtrend to new
lows, which could begin after an announcement on Feb 16/17 by the EU ministers re the
Greek debt - or is that too eurocentric to be applied to the ES ?
price doesn't go higher, will start to drop after the London open ? Sun/Mon Feb 14/15;
price drops until the EU Greek announcement 15/16 then rallies, correction over, drops
longer term: the price could base and rally back up to the Jan 11 high forming a reversal
formation - major major top, but multi-week process
decline, base and rally to a new high, possibly 1230-60 area, and then the old addage -
'sell in May and go away' - a note that Greece has debt refunding issues April/May
THE top is in and it's going to hell
