ES at 900 is the dip everyone was waiting for

Quote from scriabinop23:

Lehman induced shock took us from 1200>800 in two weeks. The Lehman shock (as well as systemic risk) is now absorbed. Now the market bleeds higher to 1200 at least while everyone begs for a correction constantly.

Look at treasury yields, econometric analysis of employment indicators, volatility, commodities, etc. for evidence the depression the market was pricing in wasn't as bad as everyone expected.

Once the next round of foreclosure inventory is absorbed (6 months) and PPIP is well in full gear, you will be blown away how fast equities move up.
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I'm not begging for a correction; it's just that technically, I believe we are due. Fundamentally, the administration (like them or not) has been orchestrating a well-rehearsed script, to lift optimism (and the markets). Unemployment is still at record highs, foreclosure levels are extremely high (and a new wave will be hitting us in 2010, due to a new wave of ARM adjustments), the deficit and debt are at record levels, blah, blah, blah.

We may see 9000 first, but we will correct hard, and re-test 7400, IMO. Traders have short-term memories, and I realize euphoria is abound, but the laws of supply and demand always win out in the end. Just be ready to book profits, and make money on the way down.

I do agree, that the move downward may have been over-exaggerated, but it wasn't just Lehman that caused this. The unregulated and unscrupulous derivatives market, and the greed on Wall Street that led to the false ratings of the mortgage securities market bundles, were the real killers. These problems do not go away over night, and don't let the market's bullish sentiment let you forget about all the collateral damage that has been done.
 
Quote from hayman:

I'm not begging for a correction; it's just that technically, I believe we are due. Fundamentally, the administration (like them or not) has been orchestrating a well-rehearsed script, to lift optimism (and the markets). Unemployment is still at record highs, foreclosure levels are extremely high (and a new wave will be hitting us in 2010, due to a new wave of ARM adjustments), the deficit and debt are at record levels, blah, blah, blah.

We may see 9000 first, but we will correct hard, and re-test 7400, IMO. Traders have short-term memories, and I realize euphoria is abound, but the laws of supply and demand always win out in the end. Just be ready to book profits, and make money on the way down.

I do agree, that the move downward may have been over-exaggerated, but it wasn't just Lehman that caused this. The unregulated and unscrupulous derivatives market, and the greed on Wall Street that led to the false ratings of the mortgage securities market bundles, were the real killers. These problems do not go away over night, and don't let the market's bullish sentiment let you forget about all the collateral damage that has been done.
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All data going froward will be BETTER THAN EXPECTED. Starting with the grandaddy report today.

BETTER THAN EXPECTED WILL BE PLASTERED ON EVERY PAPER FOR SATURDAY VIEWING
 
Quote from Roman Candle:

All data going froward will be BETTER THAN EXPECTED. Starting with the grandaddy report today.

BETTER THAN EXPECTED WILL BE PLASTERED ON EVERY PAPER FOR SATURDAY VIEWING
More...

Buy Monday, Buy Friday. Sell Tues-Thurs.
 
Quote from Roman Candle:

All data going froward will be BETTER THAN EXPECTED. Starting with the grandaddy report today.

BETTER THAN EXPECTED WILL BE PLASTERED ON EVERY PAPER FOR SATURDAY VIEWING
More...

"Payrolls drop by 539,000; jobless rate up to 8.9%"

What is good about this ????? The rate of decline is better than March ? This is still an absolute 1/2 million jobs more that have been lost.

Be smart. Book your profits, while U can.
 
Quote from hayman:

"Payrolls drop by 539,000; jobless rate up to 8.9%"

What is good about this ????? The rate of decline is better than March ? This is still an absolute 1/2 million jobs more that have been lost.

Be smart. Book your profits, while U can.
More...

I'll wait for selloffs and trade in the direction of the intermediate, trend
 
P.S. The NYSE Bullish % Index is single-handedly the best indicator of long-term trend. The daily P&F chart for it can be found at:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$BPNYA,P

It never fails to call the long trends correctly. It correctly called this upswing when the DOW was at 7100 (I forget what S&P was trading at). Self-admittedly, I didn't take the advice of the chart, and stayed on the sidelines.....I was too scared given the economic circumstances. So, I missed this run-up, and earned some paltry money from my cash accounts.

However, I always use these charts to exit. It correctly got me out of stocks in June, 2008, so I was able to book profits big-time.

We are approaching extreme levels on the buy side now, so please take heed of this.
 
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