EricP, Lescor, Patrickq, Dustin and gang..

[ChkitOut]

Quote from Swan Noir:

He said he had a high degree of confidence in the setup; he did not say he would bet the ranch on it and then bet the ranch again and again. C'mon, a bit of reality might help.

right, what i meant by high confidence, is i believed the setup to have about a 65% chance or better of hitting my target before my stop loss.

but just as in poker, you still lose a lot of hands that you are 65% favored to win.

the better way would be to trade equities, find a couple high confidence ideas, setups, whatever you want to call them, and spread out your risk, over many trials per day and theoretically that should make for a better business model.

 

[Swan Noir]

So you believe you will hit your target before the stop on approximately two trades out of three. How many ticks to your stop and how many to your target and in what instrument?

I'm not asking you for the setup. I assume that is proprietary.

Quote from ChkitOut:

right, what i meant by high confidence, is i believed the setup to have about a 65% chance or better of hitting my target before my stop loss.

but just as in poker, you still lose a lot of hands that you are 65% favored to win.

the better way would be to trade equities, find a couple high confidence ideas, setups, whatever you want to call them, and spread out your risk, over many trials per day and theoretically that should make for a better business model.

 

[ChkitOut]

Quote from Swan Noir:

So you believe you will hit your target before the stop on approximately two trades out of three. How many ticks to your stop and how many to your target and in what instrument?

I'm not asking you for the setup. I assume that is proprietary.

generally, on the index's ym or es 4 pt target (16ticks es, 40 ticks ym), 4 pt stop.

or the equivalent on NQ

 

[actionzip54]

Quote from Swan Noir:

When you say this do you mean that some very small percentage of human beings can be taught to hit a 99 mph pitch or that it is just another learnable skill? To hit even AA pitching is something very few people could ever learn. To hit major league pitching is damn near impossible even for great athletes.

I'm saying exactly that. You can be taught to hit at a major league level. If you think that all those guys in the majors just had some innate gift for batting than you are an idiot. Why would anyone spend time in the minors if you just had the ability or didn't? We would be able to determine right away who was the next great one and who wasn't without any work. It takes work and lots of it to get to the elite level of anything.

Take note I was at one time a professional athlete and many many guys I played side by side with are now at the top of the sport. Half of them had lots of talent and half didn't but they all worked hard and ended up in the same spot.

Larry Bird probably has as much basketball "talent" as you. Granted was he blessed with being like 6'9? Yes. If you 6'3 or taller you could be a NBA guard if larry bird can be one of the greatest of all time unless you have some kind of physical handicap.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from actionzip54:

I'm saying exactly that. You can be taught to hit at a major league level. If you think that all those guys in the majors just had some innate gift for batting than you are an idiot. Why would anyone spend time in the minors if you just had the ability or didn't? We would be able to determine right away who was the next great one and who wasn't without any work. It takes work and lots of it to get to the elite level of anything.

Take note I was at one time a professional athlete and many many guys I played side by side with are now at the top of the sport. Half of them had lots of talent and half didn't but they all worked hard and ended up in the same spot.

I would venture that ALL of them had some inate talent-- just to make it to the pro level requires talent that work alone can not develop. surf

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Which sport?

Quote from actionzip54:



Take note I was at one time a professional athlete and many many guys I played side by side with are now at the top of the sport. Half of them had lots of talent and half didn't but they all worked hard and ended up in the same spot.

 

[HurricaneUS]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Which sport?

it had to be badminton

 

[clacy]

Quote from actionzip54:

I'm saying exactly that. You can be taught to hit at a major league level. If you think that all those guys in the majors just had some innate gift for batting than you are an idiot. Why would anyone spend time in the minors if you just had the ability or didn't? We would be able to determine right away who was the next great one and who wasn't without any work. It takes work and lots of it to get to the elite level of anything.

Take note I was at one time a professional athlete and many many guys I played side by side with are now at the top of the sport. Half of them had lots of talent and half didn't but they all worked hard and ended up in the same spot.

I'm not sure what sport you played, but maybe 1% of random people taken off the street could be taught to hit major league pitches (at a decent batting %) even with a decade of top notch coaching and years of dedicated practice.

There are millions of kids that play competitive baseball from the time they are 4 years old. They go to camps, tournaments, etc. 99% of them will never be able to play professionally and that doesn't even count the unathletic, uncoordinated kids that never attempt to play or phase out after a year or two.

I'm not comparing baseball to trading, but I'm arguing your point that ANYONE can be taught to hit major league pitches.

The subset you're talking about are those that work extremely hard AND have the innate ability/genetics.

 

[TraDaToR]

Quote from ChkitOut:

damn it! im so pissed I ever touched a futures contract.

I really am. Trading futures is like competing with walmart on prices.

LOL...There are a bunch of folks paying 1.5/2.5K memberships every month to trade futures. Do you really think they pay this on top of losses for years?

I agree though that stock trading "looks"( and probably is ) more profitable when we see Lescor, EricP...It can be explained a few things : thousands of symbols, real edges given by market structure( ECNs, dark pools... ), rebates...But there are also a few drawbacks: subpennying, predatory HFT...

 

[actionzip54]

Quote from clacy:

I'm not sure what sport you played, but maybe 1% of random people taken off the street could be taught to hit major league pitches (at a decent batting %) even with a decade of top notch coaching and years of dedicated practice.

There are millions of kids that play competitive baseball from the time they are 4 years old. They go to camps, tournaments, etc. 99% of them will never be able to play professionally and that doesn't even count the unathletic, uncoordinated kids that never attempt to play or phase out after a year or two.

I'm not comparing baseball to trading, but I'm arguing your point that ANYONE can be taught to hit major league pitches.

The subset you're talking about are those that work extremely hard AND have the innate ability/genetics.

No shit, most of them are lazy. Sorry if you were one of those kids. The winners, the ones who make it, are the kids that put in hours and hours. I spent lots of 7 to 8 hour days, when I could obviously I had school, as a kid playing my respective sport from the age of 14 to 24. How many of those kids do that? Not many. There is a reason MJ was the last and first person in the gym. Lol you think he didn't practice, it was just talent that got him were he was in bball. Come on, man.

Btw I played a sport that had a stick and ball in it. I'm not going to delve into specifics about myself because I don't really want too. I can assure you all that I probably know more about what we are talking about than you.