ER2 has topped?

Quote from dealer:

ER2 looks strong relative to other indices -it's still holding above yesterday low.

In the event that other indices stabilize and recover then i think ER2 is going to rocket higher.

If the top is in place then I need to see a close below the 753-755 area. Only then would I feel confident enough to begin scaling into shorts.
More...

Exactly my thoughts.... I was expecting more downside to er2 in the selloff but it's still showing strength in a overall weak market. I think this is an indication that shorts aren't yet capitulated. Seems the pain is still w/ the shorts .. Also given that quarter-end is around the corner, seems small caps are propped up. The whole market has to continue lower for small cap longs to start switching to large caps...if not for this negative divergence between small and large caps, I'd think a top in the market is in place....I don't want to bet big yet given this divergence..also, this market hasn't followed through in either direction..wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow is a big up day.

Good trading!
 
The name of this thread is now woefully inappropriate...

In any case; as long as we can hold above 760 then 774 remains on the cards. 753-760 is a neutral zone for me.

Only an intraday break below 753 will tempt me to short this baby.
 
My assumption had been that we would see weakness ahead of the Q1 close. That may still be the case but until I get a short signal I am not going to go short.

Now as for going long. Sure the trend is up but with small caps +12% on the year there is going to be a lot of incentive to book some gains, especially if interest rates continue to climb.

If you are trading small size then you can get out fast but as we've seen, when ER2 futures selloff, the move can be vicious.

For now I'll stand aside and wait for a sell signal.
 
Walking in the door this morning and seeing bond yields higher around the world again i think i'm going to dip my toe in the water.

short ER2 from 770.90. Scaling into a short. Only 1 fifth of total position. Will sell another fifth at 774 and will only add as we move lower.
 
i'm waiting for a short signal around 774...if the market breaks that level i'll be looking for a short between 778 and 779.10....
 
the next one might be stiff. i've been collaring every breakup and breakdown on er and emd for 3 years solid. i mean every single day with not a day of vacation, with 5-8 contracts and about 3-5 times a day. i finally cut it off for good starting yesterday. can't wait to see what the next short break will look like.

this rally is not real from my vantage point. i removed my liquidity on a long breakout first, and also held an unusual and ill-conceived large discretionary short from the fed announcement into a slight loss yest morning. lots of fuel which is good because we need a dramatic top. (not to rationalize a bad trade)

bring out the fireworks. i won't be shorting either. bye bye equities. hello physicals

imo this is a desperation rally but who knows

if you want to catalyze a correction, don't short it anywhere. don't trade it anywhere. maybe i'm wrong
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top