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ER2 has topped?
- Thread starter polpolik
- Start date
Quote from tae:
i think this is going to crash today.
testing the support right now at 75550.
took a big short position at 75750... i think we'll see 75000 today
It is a tough short today... this could grind higher until Fed annoucement and then sell off tomorrow afternoon. After that you also have qtr end window dressing which will keep it elevated... due to these factors, I don't see a major sell off until start of April.
you guys may be right. i took half off at 7560
but still holding my original 7575
Fed numbers may take things higher but its a good spot to hold for a day or two. if it goes back up and makes new highs, i'll probably double up around 7625 and ride it to 7550, take half off and ride the rest down below 7500
but still holding my original 7575
Fed numbers may take things higher but its a good spot to hold for a day or two. if it goes back up and makes new highs, i'll probably double up around 7625 and ride it to 7550, take half off and ride the rest down below 7500
From a cursory perspective, a break over 76000 looks like the magic bullet that will start knocking off the shorts. I personally think taking a sell side position here is much to risky - I'll even venture to bet that a lot of participants are holding shorts above 76000 and will be scrambling at the open/intraday tomorrow thereby pushing the market higher. The ER2 just doesn't want to go down, I don't know why but I have a feeling the pressure is up for tomorrow (well, a feeling, AND the fact we bounced off 755 and spent the entire day near a new near term high).
Mike
Mike
As er2 couldn't break down today, now it is more likely we see it do a slow climb tomorrow (outperforming ES, again!) up to the Fed announcement @ @2:15 and then likely a selloff into the close...this pattern has happened so many times on Fed days, it's how I would expect tomorrow to play out. ...will be looking for a good dip in the AM tomorrow for a possible entry into a long trade (short-term, of course!).
Agree w/ dealer, that a nice selloff is in the pipeline....I'd give it another week or a few days....let's watch to see what unfolds!
Good trading!
Agree w/ dealer, that a nice selloff is in the pipeline....I'd give it another week or a few days....let's watch to see what unfolds!
Good trading!
Quote from tae:
you guys may be right. i took half off at 7560
but still holding my original 7575
Fed numbers may take things higher but its a good spot to hold for a day or two. if it goes back up and makes new highs, i'll probably double up around 7625 and ride it to 7550, take half off and ride the rest down below 7500
Hello,
Why average a losing trade with the hope that you can cover lower? Two instances occur here, the trade is indicating your bias is wrong for the short term, though longer you might be correct. Secondly, there's opportunity cost, the cost of making money on the long side. Should you not feel comfortable being long, at least you avoid losing additional capital by not being short while price continues rising. During this time your mind is free and more clear to stalk a trade either way, as it stands now you have a bias.
This is precisely why many fail at this, they would prefer to be right instead of making money. Sometimes you can be both, others you have to accept the risk of the loss, and reassess, then reenter. You chose.
Good Trading 2 U!]
Kelly
thanks for all your info...
i'll take that into consideration... either take the loss and wait or flip it long and follow the trend.
but i'm going to wait and see what happens tomorrow after Fed. i agree with the sell off after Fed, it happened so many times.
i like to average/tier my price to maximize/minimize p&l... of course to minimize loss. capital use is not a concern b/c i fugure if i go into another product, the capital that i would of used to tier is being occupied by another product. its the same thing to me.
it may be a long shot but i like my position.
we'll see what happens tomorrow. i may get royally screwed or it may end up being a big day for me.
i'll take that into consideration... either take the loss and wait or flip it long and follow the trend.
but i'm going to wait and see what happens tomorrow after Fed. i agree with the sell off after Fed, it happened so many times.
i like to average/tier my price to maximize/minimize p&l... of course to minimize loss. capital use is not a concern b/c i fugure if i go into another product, the capital that i would of used to tier is being occupied by another product. its the same thing to me.
it may be a long shot but i like my position.
we'll see what happens tomorrow. i may get royally screwed or it may end up being a big day for me.
thanks for all your info...
i'll take that into consideration... either take the loss and wait or flip it long and follow the trend.
but i'm going to wait and see what happens tomorrow after Fed. i agree with the sell off after Fed, it happened so many times.
Here is where there are two sides of the same coin, and why we trade our beliefs about the market, not just the market. Your wait and see approach has you holding an existing trade and wanting to be proven right, based upon what has happened so many times past. My wait and see approach will with a very high probability have me neutral. As I don't know what will be said, or how it will be perceived by the majority of participants. There will be ample opportunity to jump on the train, whether north or south bound. It may do just as expected or it may not? How many bars or points against your position justify an exit, in your timeframe of preference?
i like to average/tier my price to maximize/minimize p&l... of course to minimize loss. capital use is not a concern b/c i fugure if i go into another product, the capital that i would of used to tier is being occupied by another product. its the same thing to me.
What we like to do isn't always conducive to capital preservation and profitable trading. Averaging losers doesn't always have the desired effect, does it? Yes, I myself numerous times have done just this also, and the cost is more than financial when one becomes stuck. Perhaps you've havn't experienced this, and maybe you never will. The odds favor it happening at some point, should this be even an infrequent trading practice.
Capital use should always be of utmost concern, regardless of the reason you state. How do we effectively deploy it, and make the most use of its availability by not being concerned? Figuring if you go into another product is not the same as being in another product, is it now? Let's say you did enter another trade, and it was showing profitability, it would not be the same. Even if it was a scratch trade, it would not be the same. Even if it became a losing trade based upon the risk you were willing to take in it, it would not be the same. It's not the same, because it would be a seperate trade with a seperate outcome. I don't recall who said this, "You can't step in the same river twice."
it may be a long shot but i like my position.
we'll see what happens tomorrow. i may get royally screwed or it may end up being a big day for me.
Win, lose, or draw, may you learn from the experience. I'm not condemning you or your position, merely to get you to think outside the box, or bias you now have. Trading isn't about being right, it is about doing the right thing. To look at ones position and ask oneself, why could it be wrong? Even when it's going well, asking what, when, or where could my position be wrong and what will I be willing to do when I see that happen?
Take Care Trade Well!
Kelly
i'll take that into consideration... either take the loss and wait or flip it long and follow the trend.
but i'm going to wait and see what happens tomorrow after Fed. i agree with the sell off after Fed, it happened so many times.
Here is where there are two sides of the same coin, and why we trade our beliefs about the market, not just the market. Your wait and see approach has you holding an existing trade and wanting to be proven right, based upon what has happened so many times past. My wait and see approach will with a very high probability have me neutral. As I don't know what will be said, or how it will be perceived by the majority of participants. There will be ample opportunity to jump on the train, whether north or south bound. It may do just as expected or it may not? How many bars or points against your position justify an exit, in your timeframe of preference?
i like to average/tier my price to maximize/minimize p&l... of course to minimize loss. capital use is not a concern b/c i fugure if i go into another product, the capital that i would of used to tier is being occupied by another product. its the same thing to me.
What we like to do isn't always conducive to capital preservation and profitable trading. Averaging losers doesn't always have the desired effect, does it? Yes, I myself numerous times have done just this also, and the cost is more than financial when one becomes stuck. Perhaps you've havn't experienced this, and maybe you never will. The odds favor it happening at some point, should this be even an infrequent trading practice.
Capital use should always be of utmost concern, regardless of the reason you state. How do we effectively deploy it, and make the most use of its availability by not being concerned? Figuring if you go into another product is not the same as being in another product, is it now? Let's say you did enter another trade, and it was showing profitability, it would not be the same. Even if it was a scratch trade, it would not be the same. Even if it became a losing trade based upon the risk you were willing to take in it, it would not be the same. It's not the same, because it would be a seperate trade with a seperate outcome. I don't recall who said this, "You can't step in the same river twice."
it may be a long shot but i like my position.
we'll see what happens tomorrow. i may get royally screwed or it may end up being a big day for me.
Win, lose, or draw, may you learn from the experience. I'm not condemning you or your position, merely to get you to think outside the box, or bias you now have. Trading isn't about being right, it is about doing the right thing. To look at ones position and ask oneself, why could it be wrong? Even when it's going well, asking what, when, or where could my position be wrong and what will I be willing to do when I see that happen?
Take Care Trade Well!
Kelly