Quote from profitseer:
The 3 prong approach
1. Thinking right
2. Money Management
3. Reading the market
to me thinking right is most important
for example, when I say I can hit 50% just by buying even and selling odd numbers, if you think that's not possible, then the first thing you should be thinking is, "If it's not possible to hit 50% buying even selling odd, then it must be possible to hit better than 50 selling even buying odd."
When I learned how to play craps I played and played every day for about three months prior to my first trip to LV. The stoploss was three losing rounds. Many days I would sit down and start rolling and the dice would pass for quite some time. Many times I would get the three straight losers. So my thinking was... if I start rolling the dice to pass and get stopped out, then I will start playing the don't pass.
So I started doing that, still on my hand drawn table etc, ie., paper gambling if you will. And guess what I found out. I could play the pass and lose three, and the don't pass and lose three. What was I missing?
The chop. Yes in dice there is chop too. That dreadful period where the seven shows just frequently enough to cause both the pass and don't pass players to lose.
You win, you lose, you breakeven. It goes up, it goes down, it goes sideways. It passes, it doesn't pass, it chops.
The following is posted on another thread:
"Here are some usefuls statistics that are true for all markets:
Studies show that most days fall into one of two categories, higher or lower days. A study of these patterns reveals that the approximate frequency of occurrence is as follows:
Higher day 38 %
Lower day 38 %
Other 24 %
Other represents inside, outside and equal days."
Beware of the thinking that proposes doing the opposite of a losing strategy produces a winning strategy.
