I like Tom too, at least he is looking at you and yet not looking at you
Epiphany of Tom Lee's bullishness
- Thread starter blueraincap
- Start date
I like Tom too, at least he is looking at you and yet not looking at you
%%
NO, not on bitcon;
but good call on NOV/2021 LOL.
But my call on his NOV 2021 call is 95% hindsight bias /LOL
Fed can live with S&P 4,500 with stage set for a strong rally - Fundstrat's Tom Lee
Stocks have been "obliterated" and the recent stock gains look like more than a simple bear-market rally, Fundstrat Tom Lee says.
The S&P "is down -20% in nominal terms, but down -28% on 'real terms' (CPI adjusted)," Lee said. "The Fed has won. Stocks have been obliterated."
"But this also means a 50% rally in equities would still leave stocks -15% on a 'real basis' - in other words, S&P 500 4,500 would still be consistent with Fed’s goals of tightening financial conditions."
Even "if this proves to be a 'bear rally,' the ingredients are in place for a rally far stronger than the “June pivot hopes” rally, which lasted 23 trading days and rose +16%," Lee added.
During the June pivot rally, only headline CPI had peaked, while JOLTs showed openings/workers at about 2. Now that ratio is 1.67 and falling, while more economists are calling for "substantial declines" in core CPI, Lee noted.
In addition, "investor positioning is far more bearish now than anytime in 2022."
"Taken together: doesn’t it make sense a rally should exceed the 'false dawn pivot'?," Lee said, adding, "consider a possible 30-50 day rally and 20-25%?"
Stocks have been "obliterated" and the recent stock gains look like more than a simple bear-market rally, Fundstrat Tom Lee says.
The S&P "is down -20% in nominal terms, but down -28% on 'real terms' (CPI adjusted)," Lee said. "The Fed has won. Stocks have been obliterated."
"But this also means a 50% rally in equities would still leave stocks -15% on a 'real basis' - in other words, S&P 500 4,500 would still be consistent with Fed’s goals of tightening financial conditions."
Even "if this proves to be a 'bear rally,' the ingredients are in place for a rally far stronger than the “June pivot hopes” rally, which lasted 23 trading days and rose +16%," Lee added.
During the June pivot rally, only headline CPI had peaked, while JOLTs showed openings/workers at about 2. Now that ratio is 1.67 and falling, while more economists are calling for "substantial declines" in core CPI, Lee noted.
In addition, "investor positioning is far more bearish now than anytime in 2022."
"Taken together: doesn’t it make sense a rally should exceed the 'false dawn pivot'?," Lee said, adding, "consider a possible 30-50 day rally and 20-25%?"
I don't follow Tom Lee (but I know who he is)
If I have CNBC on, it's on mute.
What amazes me are the analysts who follow google
This stock is already off its high by 30%.
And that is supposed to be enough of a correction??
Seems the boys at Google have figured everything out.
or maybe not?
These young kids must be new to the advertising business.
Can tell by their enthusiasm. and max hubris.
Most of Goog revs are from on-line advertising.
WTF ??
Guess what big companies cut the heaviest in a recession.
Print Ads.
Are we even in a recession yet.
If you ask DEMs, NO.
But soon to be, recession will be here soon.
***
The google boys probably have some advertising contracts in place, minimums, time frames, etc.
But when the bad times (recession) get here. the google boys will have no idea what is happening.
They probably weren't even alive during the last real recession, 1979-1981.
if they are older than that, they would have a different business model.
Wow.
If I have CNBC on, it's on mute.
What amazes me are the analysts who follow google
This stock is already off its high by 30%.
And that is supposed to be enough of a correction??
Seems the boys at Google have figured everything out.
or maybe not?
These young kids must be new to the advertising business.
Can tell by their enthusiasm. and max hubris.
Most of Goog revs are from on-line advertising.
WTF ??
Guess what big companies cut the heaviest in a recession.
Print Ads.
Are we even in a recession yet.
If you ask DEMs, NO.
But soon to be, recession will be here soon.
***
The google boys probably have some advertising contracts in place, minimums, time frames, etc.
But when the bad times (recession) get here. the google boys will have no idea what is happening.
They probably weren't even alive during the last real recession, 1979-1981.
if they are older than that, they would have a different business model.
Wow.
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