Epiphany! (Laughing)

M

mgabriel01

OK --- so 100 pages into the book and the answer to the 'time horizon' question occurs to me


The relevant patterns and trends are visible on 'many' time horizons


you can see them sometimes over a few days
or a few weeks
or a few months
or a few years

the pattern is the same
regardless of the units of time


this is good
this is very very interesting, grasshopper
 
yeah but..............they do not work the same on all time frames, at least in my short career. The shorter the time frame the less reliable the pattern, imho.
 
Quote from mgabriel01:

OK --- so 100 pages into the book and the answer to the 'time horizon' question occurs to me


The relevant patterns and trends are visible on 'many' time horizons


you can see them sometimes over a few days
or a few weeks
or a few months
or a few years

the pattern is the same
regardless of the units of time


this is good
this is very very interesting, grasshopper
More...

LoL, well yes and EUREKA too. What are you reading?
 
Im referring to Shabackers book
And my reading of it leads me to the same conclusion so far

the shorter the time line - the less convincing the strength of the pattern

I've been looking at H&S tops --- and I believe one can identify smaller H&S tops on shorter timelines within the larger H&S top on the longer timeline


what shabacker refers to as 'patterns within a pattern'
 
And yes, I'm clearly new at this --- so thanks for your collective kindness in offering your insights

I had quite honestly been puzzling over the time horizon question despite several knowledgable people here mentioning to me that this was the way it operated

we can be 'told' but until we 'understand' we haven't really listened

hehehe
 
Quote from mgabriel01:

Im referring to Shabackers book
And my reading of it leads me to the same conclusion so far

the shorter the time line - the less convincing the strength of the pattern

I've been looking at H&S tops --- and I believe one can identify smaller H&S tops on shorter timelines within the larger H&S top on the longer timeline


what shabacker refers to as 'patterns within a pattern'
More...

Yes, it's good to realize that and see it live(when others don't).

I don't know of the book but what he refers to is like nested chart patterns.
 
Quote from infolode:

Yes, it's good to realize that and see it live(when others don't).

I don't know of the book but what he refers to is like nested chart patterns.
More...



Seeing it is very gratifying --- now understanding it well enough to take some action on it well..... hopefully I will make progress on that in the next year or so

and yes, nested chart patterns sounds conceptually the same.

Speaking as an old code hacker - nested patterns appear in all walks of life, dont they?
 
Quote from mgabriel01:

Seeing it is very gratifying --- now understanding it well enough to take some action on it well..... hopefully I will make progress on that in the next year or so

and yes, nested chart patterns sounds conceptually the same.

Speaking as an old code hacker - nested patterns appear in all walks of life, dont they?
More...

I believe they do.
 
Quote from matador04:

Are you referring to Mandelbrot's book?
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I don't think that's something mandelbrot would say.

"patterns are the fool's gold of the financial markets... They are the inevitable consequence of the human need to find patterns in the patternless."
mandelbrot

He would say markets have self-similar fractals, very different than identical patterns. The difference is as big as comparing a deterministic system to a chaotic one.

The key to unglue yourself from these beliefs, is to try to find a way that they wouldn't work. For instance, if I say I found the holy grail pattern, and it consists of an up-down--up-long down pattern, I challenge you to find a way for this not to work. Show me any chart and I'll find a way to fit that pattern on to it (I may have to modify the count to sub patterns to make it work, but by golly I'll get it to work because that's what I believe).
 
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