EOD traders only journal

I got pretty busy last week but made a few changes...

Still holding SLV calls. My numbers kept improving and the value of the calls was so small it didn't really make sense to sell them. We'll see if the recovery has anything behind it next week. Also holding NQ short. I really think we could see some selling. Objectively this is the weakest stocks have looked in about a year. I don't like calling tops or bottoms I'm just trying to ride whatever wave I think might be forming and this looks like it has potential. It could always turn and push to new highs so I'll be watching it closely each day and will reverse positions if I think sentiment is changing. Only short USD/CAD right now in forex. I'm working right now on pushing my timeframe out a little bit and slowing down on the trades, being a little more selective. That and studying fixed income markets.
 
I have probably made it obvious already that I tend to jump around a lot in my ideas and plans. That's just how I am. Having said that...I'm working right now on building some different data sets IE taking an ETF like GDX and making a list of the stocks that compose it at least to a certain % point, and tracking the ACD facts for the component stocks, organized by sector. I'm starting with just GDX right now because I've always liked trading metals and miners, and I'll see if it is something of value to me.
 
So I got some pretty solid work done this weekend. I got my data sets running for the ETFs I'm tracking. For each ETF I have a sub-spreadsheet with the components of that ETF. For some of the ones with a lot of components I limited it to the ones that make up >1% of the fund. It looks like this should be pretty useful. I'm aware (and have been aware) that I am trading too frequently in forex. I want to tone it back on focus on being in the right products and I think this will help. I don't necessarily mind being in single stock positions. I'm pretty comfortable with risk (I played poker for a living for 7 years back in the day and I'm still a gambler at heart) and any losses I might sustain right now are pretty easy to replace from my income.

I'm also finding myself giving too much weight to my number lines. Price needs to confirm and I have come up with some simple rules based on weekly/monthly opening ranges that make sure I'm not fading a strong market like silver right now. At the same time it also gives an entry price so my orders can be entered the night before as stop limit orders. I'm not taking any new positions right now. I'm going to start watching equities in detail and will consider some stock positions in the near future, but I have some real life stuff next couple weeks that might make it hard.

Here is my current 10 day NL which is one I like for immediate term candidates.
EXCEL_2017-06-25_16-45-09.png
 
So I had the day off again and did a lot of coding. I have to say that the stuff I have discussed in the last few posts has completely changed how I'm looking at things in the equity area. Having said that I'm taking small profit on the NQ short and calling it luck and a bad trade. I took profit on USD/CAD short and am short EUR/USD. I'm writing off the SLV trade and in review it was a terrible trade. I wasn't seeing the forest for the trees and should have been looking at nothing but short side. No big deal though I'm trading really small and maybe I will still get lucky on the calls.
 
baggerlord said:
I think the play here is long XLF, XLP, YM and treasury (2/5/10/30 all look strong.)
More...
@baggerlord I know you've been working with the NL concept. If you look at stockcharts.com SCTR indicator it is coming up with similar results with a lot less work. Don't know if it is better or worse, you just may be interested.
 
That is interesting. I can only see a few because I'm not a member, but I did add XBI to my analysis after seeing it there, and it is indeed number 1 on my list now. Would you mind posting their rankings for some of the ETFs I posted? I would be curious to see the results.
 
baggerlord said:
That is interesting. I can only see a few because I'm not a member, but I did add XBI to my analysis after seeing it there, and it is indeed number 1 on my list now. Would you mind posting their rankings for some of the ETFs I posted? I would be curious to see the results.
More...
If you pull up any chart and add SCTR as an indicator it will show. No membership needed.
 
This is the 2nd day after what I consider a dual central bank event yesterday.
BOTH Fed and ECB were hawkish. These players and China IMO are the largest catalyst
of price continuation/reversals.
This is just my opinion based on observation.
Of couse I have minimum data, time and qualifications but this appears to be a euro event,
overwhelming Fed hawkish jawboning. Apparantly Drahgi implies he favors current QE actions in the face of positive growth and inflation numbers and the Germans who want the nonsense to stop.
Prices lean strongly to favor hawks .
I'm going to go with todays big risk on rally with Metals , specially steel, AKS.
The long financial pick by Baggerlord is looking good here to with "higher rates."
The spread between 2 and 10 treasury yields steepened from 78 to 88bp. in the last 2 days.
Its bullish that all the yield increase is in the 10 year.
A good metric to guage EUR/USD might be to start looking at Bund/treasury spreads.
Central bankers are likely to speak, follow up, clarify to manage and control prices if they dont like how this shakes out.
 
Yeah the ECB announcement yesterday completely shifted the momentum in a big way. I took a loss on my EURUSD and got long NZDUSD, will hold it for the duration if the dollar keeps going like this. I would be shorting retail tomorrow if my equity account wasn't already maxed out long financials and short energy stocks. Still looking to extend my timeframes and cut down on trades. I'm travelling in real life so won't be tracking data too close.
 
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