EOD traders only journal

[baggerlord]

I'm doing something very similar, except I'm still forward testing and not taking real trades yet. My system is objective; if a signal is generated then I take the trade and hold for 10 days in the test phase. So far the results have been very promising, but I might continue this process for a few more weeks until I'm entirely comfortable with the system.

I really am in a forward test phase right now too. I just wanted to do it with real money to find as many bugs as possible. Again I chose forex because I can trade tiny size where I really don't care what happens, but it is still real trades. And a little bit of money keeps me interested of course.

Lots of trades triggered today. Added:
long EURUSD, EURGBP
short USDCHF NZDJPY

 

[baggerlord]

Updates today: going to close GBP/USD and EUR/GBP later. It looks like I might get a little selling in the asian session so I'll give it a chance but definitely closing them tonight. Also switching long GBP/USD. Everything else looks good to hold. Going to start looking for gold deals. I think its time to buy it back tonight/tomorrow.

Stuff I'm watching but not trading: Long signals in ES/NQ, silver, and bonds. With NG I'm not sure what happened but after finishing migrating my stuff to pure python it was showing a sell signal on 6/9 that definitely wasn't showing before. I'm glad I'm switching everything because I think it will be much more reliable than my previous setup. I have some checks I do on stuff I'm actually trading to avoid that type of problem. EUR/USD was the other error, and it was also on the previous setup.

I'm scrapping the stock plan for now. It doesn't make sense to trade odd lots when I can just trade sector ETFs. I'm starting to study that now.

And finally...I briefly broke the +1000 pip mark last night and today since beginning trading on this account with this methodology. I'm making lots of mistakes but it seems to be good at generally staying on the right side of the market. And I've gotten lucky of course.

 

[sss12]

Hope your signals are right, thanks. Will post when I exit the trade.

Took small profit in the long TLT Put position. Plan was to hold it until Fed but not through.

 

[sss12]

Took small profit in the long TLT Put position. Plan was to hold it until Fed but not through.

Looked at SLV on short side but not enough of a break, didn't pull the trigger.

 

[baggerlord]

Markets seem indecisive right now. I closed USD CHF short at a small loss and added a couple. Currently long: EURUSD, GBPUSD, CADJPY, EURGBP
Short: USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDJPY, USDJPY, EURJPY.

I'm not going to try and make sense of all that. I'm taking the trust the spreadsheet approach. I feel like the net position I am in reflects the unclear state of the market right now.

No changes to the long NQ/ES, bonds, and metals bias from yesterday.

 

[baggerlord]

Got in late last night so just did a cursory look before bed. After looking in more detail I think the big trade right now is going to be long yen and bonds. Looks like the ES/NQ are blowing through the long signal.

 

[baggerlord]

Well pretty much all my positions went against me today but my spreadsheet says they are still good. I have a lot of long Yen exposure including a new GBP/JPY short position so I guess it will depend on how the market feels about BOJ action tonight. I would like to think that my analysis captures market sentiment, as that is how I designed it, and I am positioning myself correctly along with the smart money. I took profit on USD/CAD short today and am out. Rather than positions, here is my exposure:

 

[eurusdzn]

I like FAZ, (short financials) long right here but admitedly "it should have moved the last couple days".
Thinking it will revert back into the thick of the recent range. Yup its a lousy tripple bear etf
and I will run like hell if those recent lows dont hold.

Ironically, its possible the fed hawkishness regarding its language to reduce its balance sheet may provide some dovish price action as markets discount the feds delusions that it can ever reduce its balance sheet into this flattening yield curve.

 

[sss12]

wanted to get long tech and short retail, but instead of long XLK and short XRT as I would normally do, bought calls MSFT and M puts. We will see.

 

[baggerlord]

I closed some positions, mostly at loss, and am only short GBP/JPY and USD/JPY now. The other ones have left the window within which my testing shows my signals to be predictive. My data on my two open positions looks good after today so we'll see if they follow through next week. I also bought some SLV calls today, very long gamma around 30 day expiration. I figure if I have the nerve to think I can predict direction I might as well get paid for it if I am right. I won't hold more than a few days if it isn't going my way so I think the R:R is pretty favorable.

ES and NQ are building bullish strength and YM has been strong this whole week. I don't think we are done seeing stock market highs yet. I'm also seeing bonds and metals strong too...