Enter retest on Triangle trendline or Previous Lows/highs?

Retest or not ...
First ... Does a retest improve your P(G) ?
Maybe a "Retest" doesn't improve the odds of your setup.

If it really does improve the odds ...
Is it worth the potential decrease in the Reward to Risk ?
Usually the fact to enter late (?) decrease your expected payoff.

Say 1. without retest P(G) = 0.5, Risk = 1, Reward = 2
Say 2. with a retest P(G) = 0.66, Risk = 2, Reward = 2

Which one is better ?

E(1) = 0.5, its Advantage = 0.17 & Average Return 8.5%*
E(2) = 0.66, its Advantage = 0.16 & Average Return 5.3%*

Both are tradable but 1. is a bit better.

I can't find the numbers for you ...
Backtest either on Demo or on Simulator.

* Assuming Full Kelly (Advantage)
 
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iamnewuser911 said:
I also feel retests makes me miss out on a lot of moves.
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There is always a "move" somewhere.
If a proper retest is a filter that increases your odds, you should stick to it.

You'd probably regret the bad trades more than the trades you missed.
 
I was taught differently, but are their rules on drawing Triangles? I was taught it is alternating pivots and more like a Greater Than sign image, and each different pattern have different reactions or entries and risk.
 
Laissez Faire said:
You should discover the 'rule' by doing your own research, not from the opinion of people here or statements from trading books.
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You're all heart ;-)

@iamnewuser911 a lot depends on how you manage the outcome rather than the entry. That all looks like a big mess to me anyway, it's not clearly trending or a clear break one way or the other. That's a gambling setup to me. I'd be inclined to trade neither of those but if it broke the last low on that chart after the trendline break then I might think about it.
 
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