I am reading soros refllexivity stuff again. It is interesting... in the way reading what you write is interesting... but it not in any way deep. The best part of his writing is his summary of Popper... just like the way you can sum up co2 science well.
But, his conclusions are as suspect as yours on banking. Could there be a similarity here?
His reflexivity stuff is as he says he critics state... obvious.
It certainly appears to be vapor now. You have to understand the context. A the time people were saying the markets were efficient. Was it a big deal to say trends can go on a long time past efficiency because you knowledge is less than perfect and humans can make poor decision. Please.... I was just out of college when he pushed that stuff and it was obvious to anyone who traded or wanted to?
My dad made a small fortune in Gold being a contrarian but he had to listen to all his friends and our relatives telling him he was a nut for a few years.
I once asked a Rockerfeller and Prescott Bush at Round Hill Country Club in the early 80s... if silver would come back.. Rockefeller said the Hunts had a lot of silver so it could stay down far longer than people expected.
Perhaps I am bit jaded... But perhaps inclined to think his work is obvious terms of originality because it was obvious to me at the time. I remember being told in the 80s by my econ professors and everyone else that the markets were efficient- but at virtually the same during the summer I was teaching tennis to traders in my home town in Greenwich Ct who made millions trading the markets.
But, his conclusions are as suspect as yours on banking. Could there be a similarity here?
His reflexivity stuff is as he says he critics state... obvious.
It certainly appears to be vapor now. You have to understand the context. A the time people were saying the markets were efficient. Was it a big deal to say trends can go on a long time past efficiency because you knowledge is less than perfect and humans can make poor decision. Please.... I was just out of college when he pushed that stuff and it was obvious to anyone who traded or wanted to?
My dad made a small fortune in Gold being a contrarian but he had to listen to all his friends and our relatives telling him he was a nut for a few years.
I once asked a Rockerfeller and Prescott Bush at Round Hill Country Club in the early 80s... if silver would come back.. Rockefeller said the Hunts had a lot of silver so it could stay down far longer than people expected.
Perhaps I am bit jaded... But perhaps inclined to think his work is obvious terms of originality because it was obvious to me at the time. I remember being told in the 80s by my econ professors and everyone else that the markets were efficient- but at virtually the same during the summer I was teaching tennis to traders in my home town in Greenwich Ct who made millions trading the markets.
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