End of US dollar? China moves towards currency convertibility

[achilles28]

Quote from tortoise:

You make an interesting point; not sure why you feel the need to lard it with such invective, but whatever.

The problem is that the "bankruptcy" you describe might be so complete that the legal institutions assigned with bankruptcies would simply cease to function. The path to such insolvency would not be smooth, either.

Again, consider the periods of economic contraction and social unrest that precipated the gradual, and continual, monetary easing that's brought us to this point. Then consider the impact of widespread insolvency in an era of unprecedented debt and leverage. The result would, I think, be the end of any "business cycle" so described.

I don't know what other conclusion one can draw, although I am eager to here a compelling alternative scenario.

Nice to see a relevant post, for a change.

You're right in the sense the next downturn, will be a severe Depression accompanied by massive social upheaval. Unfortunately, the die is already cast. The jobs are gone. Printing money only assures a currency collapse instead of a deflationary route. We prolong the day of reckoning until the market forces our hand, and we'll invariably be in a far worse position had we taken the pain now (and the accompanying social fallout). We're screwed.

 

[mm19]

blahblah blah.

i have heard same shit just before upswing in early '90.

 

[achilles28]

^And you probably lost on that one too

 

[mm19]

i'll admit, that was my learning period.

 

[achilles28]

Humble guy. That's a rare bird in these parts. Careful

 

[tortoise]

Quote from achilles28:

Nice to see a relevant post, for a change.

You're right in the sense the next downturn, will be a severe Depression accompanied by massive social upheaval. Unfortunately, the die is already cast. The jobs are gone. Printing money only assures a currency collapse instead of a deflationary route. We prolong the day of reckoning until the market forces our hand, and we'll invariably be in a far worse position had we taken the pain now (and the accompanying social fallout). We're screwed.

Yes, we are.

 

[zdreg]

Quote from gwb-trading:

The minute the Chinese allow their currency to float freely against the dollar is the same moment they are doomed & their economy crumbles. Their entire economy is based on a bubble powered by the currency valuation imbalance driving export trade.

remarks filled with extreme words are inevitably false e.g. the minute,doomed, crumbles, entire.

 

[achilles28]

I see only a few ways out of this mess:

1) Jack tariffs against low-cost producers (Chindia)
2) Completely gut personal income/corporate tax, business regulations, and the Federal payroll.
3) Some revolutionary technological breakthrough - free energy, teleportation etc.

Any of those have about a <2% chance.