End Of Day Trading

C

CWU

Trading with end of day data. ONLY end of day data.

Hello all. Recently stumbled on to this site. I can see that there’s many discussions relative to day trading, but I have not found a discussion about end of day trading. (Since finding this site I have asked a couple of questions to a few members and I must say WDGann was most generous in discussing Gann.)

So - any end of day traders here? End of day is the only thing I can do, because of what I do. However, I have the evenings and weekends to study and make decisions.

Here’s what I’ve done in the last 8 months:

1. Approximately 8 months ago I saw John Murphy on TV and was intrigued. (Prior to that I was a long-term investor and have gone from buy and hold, to buy and hope, to buy and pray and now to a buy and ignore.)

2. Bought his Visual Investor and then TA of the Futures Markets.

3. Started with TC2000.

4. Per a suggestion from Don Worden, purchased The Technical Analysis Course by Meyers.

5. Have subsequently purchased Pring's book and a couple by Tom Dorsey.

6. Opened a separate account with my broker and placed $50,000 in it.

7. Ordered TaofS&C and downloaded any past article on swing trading or end of day trading I could find.

8. Thought John Hill’s interview about using as much of a mechanical system as possible made perfect sense. (I haven’t purchased his new book --- yet, or studied Wykoff as he recommended.)

9. Learned to keep swing charts by hand as taught by Krausz. Been back testing by hand. Results not so good.

10. Read an interesting interview by Kaufman and bought his book Trading Systems. Much of it way over my head but some I do understand.

11. Purchased TC Companion that lets you backtest with TC2000 data.

12. With this program I have tested: Krausz’s Gann swing method (it’s not exact but close) tons of moving average systems, Laundry’s swing method, simple breakout systems, this that and …

13. I’m now keeping a number of point and figure charts by hand. They show a great deal of promise but it’s hard to backtest with them or know at what point to buy on the pullback. Still, they are showing much promise.

I guess in a nutshell, all the systems have been long-term losers. I have certainly found many many systems that just don’t work out. Whipsaws and false breakouts just killed them.

This has been fun so far. Hell it’s been a great deal of fun. I have been enjoying this but I haven’t made one trade. But, as Hill said, if your system doesn't work in backtesting, how can you expect it to work in real time.

So, let's discuss eod trading here. Anyone trading end of day and making a profit? If so, please say so and I’ll get more excited<g>. Perhaps you can tell me if it’s with your gut or more mechanical. I certainly don’t expect you to tell me what you’re doing but maybe you can point me in a direction and I’ll go do my own work.

Chuck
 
quid pro quo,

Recognizing that no one is going to provide me with a method that they have developed that actually works (I sure as heck wouldn't after what I've learned).

But, do you have an eod day trading method that works? Do you play golf? I mean do you flat ass love the game -- and suck at it.

Tell me a little about how you trade. Intice me with a bit of it in a PM, and I'll begin to teach you 5 magic moves that I have developed over hundreds and hundreds of hours on myself and my students. They work! I'll make you the Man.

I'll describe a portion of the first move right here if enough people want to hear it. It's all in the wrists. And, no one instructs with the mental aids and drills like I do.

Chuck
 
If you are a new trader, I think you are starting off in the deep end and need to work on some basics first. A new trader should be more concerned with the basics of money management, and technical analysis and a very firm grasp of the concept of expectancy. You're not at the point yet where you should be studying Gann analysis and trying to build mechanical systems.

I would strongly recomend reading the past work of Gary B. Smith, who is a columnist at thestreet.com and who's past articles are available for free in their archives. The other work you should devour is "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom" by Van Tharp. Both of these authors stress the importance of money management in a way that is easy to understand. This is the number one thing that will determine your long term success, not the trading system you use.
 
I tend to agree with the comments about jumping in at the deep end. I am all for tech analysis, but if you are going to trade a market, you must understand it. The stock market is a difficult market to understand, as there are numerous factors affecting individual stocks. Systems tend not to work too well on it.

My advice is the following. First, you are trying to do too much. Pick a couple of relatively straightforward markets and a couple of techniques. I would suggest the eurodollar futures and maybe the soybean meal markets. I would learn a trend following system, and papertrade the signals. I would learn some simple patterns and watch for them. When you are ready, you can trade, starting with small size. Always have a stop.

If you are determined to trade stocks, I echo the comments about learning risk control and position sizing. Your goal is to avoid destruction, profits come later. Your best approach is probably 3-5 day swing trading. There ar eseveral sites rec'd on this board, such as www.hardrightedge.com, for info and advice.

Whatever you trade, it is imperative that you trade with the trend. Your first question is always, what is the trend?

Good luck and bring on the golf tips. I'm off for a lesson right now.
 
Hello Lescor,

Thank you for your comments.

Back in April I copied a full 3-ring binder of past articles of Gary B. Smith. I became aware of him via his interview in TAofS&C. The binder is broken down into sections: a) Chart reading, b) Brokers, c) Candles, d) Getting Started etc etc.

I also have a couple of binders of charts I printed out and tested his methods on.

His money management is simple and easy to test. He uses and provided the code for TC2000 as his starting point.

As you may or may not know, much of what he wrote is prior to the top in March of 00. He's actually dropped some of his volume requirements and often waits for pullbacks now.


I have Tharp's book.

Chuck
 
When I decided to get serious about trading almost two years ago (after years of pissing into the wind), I went into the archives of his articles and read every singe piece he wrote since he started in Sept '97. I'd been reading him for quite a while, but sitting down 7 hours a day for a straight week and taking notes really put everything together. His articles back then were much more in depth than the daily fluff he gives now.

It's true the specific paramaters that he used a few years ago have changed, but he's always stressed that you should find a set of rules that you are comfortable with and adapt them as the market dictates.

Corey
 
Hi Chuck,

You might also want to look into AmiBroker software (www.amibroker.com/). It has all of the features of MetaStock and is only $89 for the fully licensed end of day version. It has a seamless interface with TC-2000 data and will give you access to back testing, fib. grids, and you can program custom indicators.

Jim
 
Well -- one last time before my little end of day thread light goes out.

Are there that few end of day data traders here?

Come on! If that's what you do say so. Share a little.

My hats off to inandlong. He not only does it he talks about his methods.

I can tell you this. I have an email from Mr. Hill, and three of the top people that he tracks. They all said the same thing:

Study, backtest by hand or program, and use end of day or end of week data. That's where the top systems and money are. That was good enough for me.

Chuck
 
CWU's PM about EOD trading prompted me to reawaken this thread. My 2 cents comes in 3 points (that's a whopping 2/3 of cent per point???).

  1. Exits are more important than entries: Too many books and systems focus on the entry, too few spend enough time on the exits. A good exit strategy will go a long way to boosting profits and limiting losses. Also realize that exits are NOT independent of entries. The reason is that an entry strategy will tend select for a particular mode of market behavior (e.g., entering on a trend vs. entering on a breakout). The exit strategy must be appropriate for that market mode.
  2. Not all trades are created equal: Traders don't need to take every entry or allocate equal size to every entry. I must credit darkhorse with this one, whose phrase "pockets of clarity" created quite the epiphany for me (Thanx darkhorse!). You can turn a losing system into a winning system with judicious sizing of the trades. You just need to find the cues that indicate that a given entry will have a higher gain than average and/or lower risk than average.
  3. Couple more books for the library: OK, I know that good systems don't come from books, good systems come from each trader's personal blood, sweat, tears and risk capital. But some books can help. Two that I really like are: "Technical Analysis from A to Z" by Achelis and "Trading Systems That Work" by Thomas Stridsman. The first is a nice encyclopedia of some 140 indicators and the second is full of fairly advanced ideas about how to develop and test systems. Neither book contains the Holy Grail -- think of the first as providing the clay and the second as being the potters wheel so you can make your own drinking mug.

Wishing endless profits from EOD trading,
Traden4Alpha
 
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