I believe the smart money that bought the early dips and accumulated on the way up has been holding off selling until the dumb money gives a good final chase (which could be sparked by a solid jobs report), then they'll sell into strength, taking some profits off the table. The market is quite (but not fully) overextended right here within the trend parameters, and should offer up a good counter-trend pullback play soon. The last time the market was this overextended in the recent run up, the pullback was nearly 30 pts (ES).
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Employment Situation To Be Renamed Into UnEmployment Report!
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
Quote from shortie:
i agree. SPY +10% YTD, +1.5% in dividends - this is a nice return. given the extremely volatile year, why risk it if one is a fund manager? sell everything and give yourself a nice vacation until 2011.
You know why ? Because when the S&P 500 was going down to 1041 ( and other similar episodes this year ), many fund managers sat on cash or bonds etc and were underinvested in equities. There was a lot of overdone fear ( read ET to see what many people were thinking ).
How many fund managers made the 10% this year ? How many who didn't are window dressing their accounts right now to make them look like they believed all along in the best growth stocks ?
Hard not to be cynical about the money management field.
Pullback of 30 points sounds like a big deal. Of course at 2 oclock yesterday afternoon they were at 1184 and are now 1218, so thats 34 points in a day. There has to be something drastically wrong somewhere if the fed is so scared to allow the market move on its own. Sounds like the days of Stratton where they wouldn't let anybody sell until they dumped theirs; does the laymen realize that by pumping up the market and crushing the dollar they are again feeding the rich at the expense of the downtrodden? Kind of amazing that the republicans rail against Obama- they never had a market before that was so fixed to the upside, why do they complain?
Quote from tivthetrader:
Pullback of 30 points sounds like a big deal. Of course at 2 oclock yesterday afternoon they were at 1184 and are now 1218, so thats 34 points in a day. There has to be something drastically wrong somewhere if the fed is so scared to allow the market move on its own. Sounds like the days of Stratton where they wouldn't let anybody sell until they dumped theirs; does the laymen realize that by pumping up the market and crushing the dollar they are again feeding the rich at the expense of the downtrodden? Kind of amazing that the republicans rail against Obama- they never had a market before that was so fixed to the upside, why do they complain?
Exactly right, the fed continues to feed this market, seems they are doing everything possible to keep the markets from dropping. How is this a real market when its being manipulated to only go one way. Everyone is cheering this rally here and across every market around the world but everyone should know that this cannot last. There is going to be a tipping point whether tomorrow or 5 years from now but when the tipping point is met this market along with every market around the world is going to collapse. These markets cannot be sustained by cheap liquidity and trillions and trillions of stimulus money, the carry trade continues to be a big factor in this, as well as the creation of asset bubbles due to the trillions being pumped into the system to float economies here and abroad.
Friday Look Ahead: Jobs Report Could Be Weak, But Markets May Not Care
Published: Thursday, 4 Nov 2010 | 7:02 PM ET
Text Size
By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive Editor
The October employment report is not expected to show much in the way of new job growth, but the euphoria over Fed easing may trump any concern in markets Friday.
Economists are forecasting a non-farm payrolls gain of 60,000 for October, when the number is released at 8:30 a.m.
In September, the monthly report showed the creation of 64,000 private sector jobs, but a total loss of 95,000 because of government job losses.
Stocks vaulted higher Thursday, as the Fed's announcement of a $600 billion quatitative easing program fired up a global risk rally.
The major stock indices all finished above their year highs, and the Dow and S&P 500 finished at levels not seen since the weeks around the failure of Lehman Brothers in September, 2008.
"I don't see a reason why the (jobs) numbers should be strong," said Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economists Joseph LaVorgna.
He noted, however, that there were surprise gains in the ISM manufacturing and service sector reports this week, as well as the better-than-expected private payroll number from ADP.
"It would be nice if it was...There's probably some upside risk. We're due for a big number, but I don't know why it has to be tomorrow," he said. "If the number is good, it will be big for stocks."
LaVorgna expects private payrolls to grow by 90,000, and the total non-farm payroll number to be 80,000.
The consensus among economists for growth in private sector payrolls is 80,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 9.6 percent.
Pierpont Securities chief economist Stephen Stanley expects to see 125,000 jobs added in October.
Economists expect losses in public sector jobs to have less of an impact in October than in prior months, when the federal government was furloughing temporary census workers and state and local governments had big layoffs.
"The consensus is arguing the deceleration we had in September continued. I think the labor market is languishing, but I don't think it got worse. I think a lot of firms were waiting for the election to see how things are going to go and how taxes are going to be. I really think there's a chance we see a real acceleration as we head into 2011," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities.
Already a new tone from the White House is encouraging some in the markets that the environment for business might change.
A White House spokesman Thursday said the president would consider discussing extending all of the Bush tax cuts. President Obama had opposed extending tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.
He also reached out to business Wednesday, in his first comments after Tuesday's major Republican win in Congressional races.
"I think we'll see more private sector growth coming from employment numbers, between the QE2 and the election behind us," said Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist at U.S. Trust. "I think a president willing to come a little to the center, reach across the aisle and work with Congress...that could be the tipping point for getting CEOs to loosen the purse strings and start their hiring."
Published: Thursday, 4 Nov 2010 | 7:02 PM ET
Text Size
By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive Editor
The October employment report is not expected to show much in the way of new job growth, but the euphoria over Fed easing may trump any concern in markets Friday.
Economists are forecasting a non-farm payrolls gain of 60,000 for October, when the number is released at 8:30 a.m.
In September, the monthly report showed the creation of 64,000 private sector jobs, but a total loss of 95,000 because of government job losses.
Stocks vaulted higher Thursday, as the Fed's announcement of a $600 billion quatitative easing program fired up a global risk rally.
The major stock indices all finished above their year highs, and the Dow and S&P 500 finished at levels not seen since the weeks around the failure of Lehman Brothers in September, 2008.
"I don't see a reason why the (jobs) numbers should be strong," said Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economists Joseph LaVorgna.
He noted, however, that there were surprise gains in the ISM manufacturing and service sector reports this week, as well as the better-than-expected private payroll number from ADP.
"It would be nice if it was...There's probably some upside risk. We're due for a big number, but I don't know why it has to be tomorrow," he said. "If the number is good, it will be big for stocks."
LaVorgna expects private payrolls to grow by 90,000, and the total non-farm payroll number to be 80,000.
The consensus among economists for growth in private sector payrolls is 80,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 9.6 percent.
Pierpont Securities chief economist Stephen Stanley expects to see 125,000 jobs added in October.
Economists expect losses in public sector jobs to have less of an impact in October than in prior months, when the federal government was furloughing temporary census workers and state and local governments had big layoffs.
"The consensus is arguing the deceleration we had in September continued. I think the labor market is languishing, but I don't think it got worse. I think a lot of firms were waiting for the election to see how things are going to go and how taxes are going to be. I really think there's a chance we see a real acceleration as we head into 2011," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities.
Already a new tone from the White House is encouraging some in the markets that the environment for business might change.
A White House spokesman Thursday said the president would consider discussing extending all of the Bush tax cuts. President Obama had opposed extending tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.
He also reached out to business Wednesday, in his first comments after Tuesday's major Republican win in Congressional races.
"I think we'll see more private sector growth coming from employment numbers, between the QE2 and the election behind us," said Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist at U.S. Trust. "I think a president willing to come a little to the center, reach across the aisle and work with Congress...that could be the tipping point for getting CEOs to loosen the purse strings and start their hiring."
What were the employment numbers outcome?
Quote from NoDoji:
I believe the smart money that bought the early dips and accumulated on the way up has been holding off selling until the dumb money gives a good final chase (which could be sparked by a solid jobs report), then they'll sell into strength, taking some profits off the table. The market is quite (but not fully) overextended right here within the trend parameters, and should offer up a good counter-trend pullback play soon. The last time the market was this overextended in the recent run up, the pullback was nearly 30 pts (ES).
NoD, please, enough letting cats out of bags! :eek:
Dollar flexing muscles, BUT I think with EUR/USD now at 1.4030 they may be done taking the money from the dollar shorts. Now the pick pockets may start working on the dollar bulls who may be shorting EUR/USD at 1.4030 today. Let us see what happens.
Quote from tradingjournals:
Dollar flexing muscles, BUT I think with EUR/USD now at 1.4030 they may be done taking the money from the dollar shorts. Now the pick pockets may start working on the dollar bulls who may be shorting EUR/USD at 1.4030 today. Let us see what happens.
Now EUR/USD at 1.4066. The picked the pockets of the dollar bulls.
Are the dollar bears next or will they delay the work on them until Monday?