Emini S&P 500 expectations.

DAY CHART.
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This market is turning to the downside again. At least for the short term. Very fast move. A lot of selling and very few bull action. This downward move might continue.

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I'm thinking the current 2630-2815 range is going to hold for a bit. In my view, fundamentals did not support the pre-October highs, and the crash was an appropriate correction of the extended valuations. The market seemed to still be priced for tax-fueled earnings growth, even though common sensibility and analyst projections did not support that. The volatility since seems to be the market trying to get a handle on itself, but I feel that fair value is right around the upper part of that range (2750-2800), so I'd be buying if we see a retracement back down towards 2630.

I wrote a blog post on this a few weeks ago that still broadly applies today (https://www.ganalysis.com/sp-500-some-perspective/). It includes some data-driven analytics that speak to these views in greater detail.
 
Ganalytics said:
I'm thinking the current 2630-2815 range is going to hold for a bit. In my view, fundamentals did not support the pre-October highs, and the crash was an appropriate correction of the extended valuations. The market seemed to still be priced for tax-fueled earnings growth, even though common sensibility and analyst projections did not support that. The volatility since seems to be the market trying to get a handle on itself, but I feel that fair value is right around the upper part of that range (2750-2800), so I'd be buying if we see a retracement back down towards 2630.

I wrote a blog post on this a few weeks ago that still broadly applies today (https://www.ganalysis.com/sp-500-some-perspective/). It includes some data-driven analytics that speak to these views in greater detail.
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I will read your blog. Thanks for this information. You are welcome anytime.
 
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