Emini divergence journal

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Quote from MarkB:

Now I'm confused. I thought that the whole divergence had to occur while the ADX is over 30.
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No, the ADX just has to be above 30 at the time of entry. Take a look at the trade on page 10.
 
Thanks no_pm. I thought that was the case originally, but then there were a couple of times when there was a divergence in place, and you mentioned something about waiting for another high to fail. At that point it looked as though you wanted the whole divergence to be at ADX 30+.

I wish that posts were actually numbered. I had my options set to display 40 posts per page, must faster to browse the forums if you have the connection speed, but not so good for finding a specific post :)

Do you plan to resume posting on the thread regarding your other method?

Glad you are feeling better, welcome back!
 
My confusion about the need for the divergence to show at ADX over 30 only comes from a trade which you demonstrated on 08/14, about halfway down page 43 (11:24 EDT). It looked as though there was divergence, then you waited for another high to begin looking for entry anyway. I can't see why the 1040 bar on that trade wouldn't have been where you'd start looking for an entry.
 
Looking back on a trade it's hard to figure out exactly what I would've done. I probably would've taken this short trade since the market opened below the close and rose higher. The Keltner looks flat and if you check the keltner from the close to the entry, there was no divergence. The trade got to within .25 of the profit target and on the next down move it set up a double bottom long divergence trade. I know I would've exited at that point, but to keep the journal clean I'm assuming I waited until the close to exit this trade for a loss.

1. ADX was above 30 coming in to the day and lasted until trade entry.
2. Divergence was confirmed when the price crossed above the closing high bar on the 9:10 bar. I used the highest Chaikin because the Chaikin on the close bar was already showing divergence (subjective). If you used the Chaikin from the closing bar you wouldn't have seen any divergence.
3. First bar to not make a new high was the 9:20 bar so sell near the open of the 9:25 at 1019.00. Keltner width was 8.5 so a stop of 3 pts. would be used.
4. The trade didn't hit the profit target or the stop so it would've been exited on the close at 1019.75.

Entry short 1019.00
Exit short 1019.75

Profit(loss) -.75
Risk 3.0

Risk/reward this trade -.25

Cumm. trades since 10/1

# wins 0
# loss 2

Profit of winners 0
Loss of losers -2.75
 

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Quote from Magna:

If you go back 1 page in this journal you'll see a post by no_pm on 9/23:Let's be patient, people. If and when no_pm wants to come back and post, he will.
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No need to be hasty. It was about 2 weeks ago since we heard, just checking to see if he is doing better with his health...ggg


Quote from no_pm_please:

Sorry I haven't given you guys much of an update. I didn't really think my health should be a big concern. I went to the docs last Friday and I still have mono. The doctor was concerned because my spleen was enlarged. He wanted to put me in the hospital in case it ruptured. I figured if he got me there he'd operate so I said no. I've been bedridden until today. I went back for another checkup and the swelling in my spleen is almost gone. I think I'm finally on the road to recovery. I feel pretty good as long as I don't do much physically. Luckily trading is more emotional (for me) than physical. I won't be playing the guitar anytime soon so I've got to get back in the trading game to make some money.

I'm planning on starting the realtime posts again tomorrow. I don't think I'll need to stop again. My next doctors checkup is in 3 weeks. I'll scan the first few days of this month and post any trades found.

See you in the am.
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no_pm_please,

Glad to see you are on your way to full recovery. (mono is a nasty bug) Best wishes for a fast one.

Thanks for coming back and continuing your contributions. Looking forward to them.
 
Quote from MarkB:

My confusion about the need for the divergence to show at ADX over 30 only comes from a trade which you demonstrated on 08/14, about halfway down page 43 (11:24 EDT). It looked as though there was divergence, then you waited for another high to begin looking for entry anyway. I can't see why the 1040 bar on that trade wouldn't have been where you'd start looking for an entry.
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I explained why in the 11:42 post. I'll try again. It's not enough to have ADX above 30 and divergence. The last event is divergence with momentum left in the trend. This is evidenced by a new high/low being made after adx crosses 30 and after divergence starts. In that case we had divergence but no new high to indicate there was momentum left in the trend. Once it happened I waited for the first down bar to enter. The trade I was pointing you to was the 08/06 trade 2 summary.

Right now ADX is above 30 and I see clear divergence. I'm waiting for the price to climb above 1035.50 to indicate a little more momentum left in this trend before shorting. If ADX drops below 30 or the divergence goes away before entry, then the short trade will be voided.
 
Now everything's in place. ADX > 30, divergence, momentum starting. After first down bar I'll be going short unless the divergence is wiped out.
 
Only good thing I can say about this trade was it was short.

1. ADX has been above 30 all morning.
2. Divergence with momentum confirmation started at 11:40.
3. Last high bar was the 11:40 bar. The sell was done at the start of the 11:50 bar at 1034.75. Keltner width was 2.25 so stop was set at 1037.00. Within a few minutes the trade was stopped out at 1037.00

Entry short 1034.75
Exit short 1037.00

Profit(loss) -2.25
Risk 2.25

Risk/reward this trade -1.00

Cumm. trades since 10/1

# wins 0
# loss 3

Profit of winners 0
Loss of losers -5.0
 

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