I'm waiting to see evidence that this isn't a trend day. We've bounced above the middle keltner channel (20 period ma) twice. This is usually a sign of a trend day. No point in trying fight it.
Emini divergence journal
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I'm waiting to see evidence that this isn't a trend day. We've bounced above the middle keltner channel (20 period ma) twice. This is usually a sign of a trend day. No point in trying fight it.
just a thought, but could it be the
reason it failed was that on Friday
we had very very low volume all day
up until the last 15 minutes of
trading. Could this have thrown off
the Chaikin Os?
jd
reason it failed was that on Friday
we had very very low volume all day
up until the last 15 minutes of
trading. Could this have thrown off
the Chaikin Os?
jd
I saw divergence starting with the 10:05 bar. Then you'd have to wait for a new high above that bar to be made while divergence persisted. Then you'd wait for the first down bar before entering. I'm not trading until the market hits the bottom Keltner Channel (to indicate this trend move is over today). Then I'll take the next signal. If it doesn't happen today (likely), then tomorrow I'll be trading normally. This is how I avoid losing big during trend days.
On the first trade I think I screwed up. The first bar today should've been the start of divergence. Then the 8:40 bar would've been confirmation and the 9:05 bar should've been the entry. Since this is looking like a trend up day, no short signal using my divergence method would've worked.
Do you have any systematic criteria to avoid fighting the trend? On the one hand you use the ADX to indicate that you do have some trend, on the other hand you try to avoid strong trends. So what are your ways to pick the right trend that you did not specifically stated when introducing this method? Seems to me that you did not tell us everything. I do understand that you rely on some discretion while trading this method, but I believe that even discretionary elements should form some system, otherwise you may end up with a bunch of random criteria which is not good at all, IMO.
In the past I've traded mostly in the afternoon. When I'd see a morning like this, I'd normally forget about trading the rest of the day. Since I'm trading from the start of day now, if the first trade is a loser I have to assume it's a trend day until the market proves me wrong. If it touches the bottom Keltner Channel, I'll take another setup. Otherwise, I'll wait until tomorrow to trade.
I could've avoided the loss (20/20 hindsight) by waiting to see the gap filled this morning. Just something to note for future reference.
Seems to me that this is the point of the journal, and that the Gimmees are missing that point. Rather than focus on the trees, the recipe, the exact indicators, the exact settings, the exact entry and exit, focus instead on the forest, the principles that NPP is using to guide him, i.e., some indication of trend exhaustion with an eye toward trend reversal plus a confirmation from a divergence in some oscillator.
The danger in trying to copy somebody else's method exactly is that one may (will) find that it doesn't work for him in exactly the same way. Rather than futz with it, he'll just toss it aside and move on to somebody else's recipe.
A more sensible course is to look for ideas, not rules. If, for example, ADX seems like a reasonable indicator of trend and trend exhaustion, then experiment with several period lengths and several thresholds other than 30. If the Chaikin isn't performing as expected, try other oscillators using a variety of settings. Apply these simultaneously to old charts in order to find out which are the most promising, then try them out in real time.
Don't try to copy someone else's system and don't try to reinvent the wheel. Build on the work of others - such as NPP's - in order to come up with something of your own. Buying or subscribing to a particular charting program and subscribing to a particular data service and setting up an account with a particular broker just so one's charts can look exactly like somebody else's is a bit like painting your car red so that it will go faster.
Good point, but also the market just made its third top for the day and it usually does not progress beyond three peaks. You may also want to incorporate the floor resistance and support numbers to give you some idea where a trend may terminate. The first divergence was slightly above R1, the last one close to R3 at 999.5. The market rarely ever moves past R3, but of course there are no absolutes, only educated guesses.
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