Emini divergence journal
- Thread starter no_pm_please
- Start date
- Status
Linda teaches that an ADX > 30 indicates a strong trend. When there is a strong trend, she believes the 20 period MA acts as a support point.
I believe adx > 30 could be evidence of a strong trend or evidence of a aging weak trend. I use divergence with volume and overextension of momentum to indicate when the trend is weak. She doesn't go that far in her teaching. When there is a strong trend then the 20 period MA is a good support point. When there isn't a strong trend, then it has no value.
Yesterday I didn't see the price bounce at the 20 period MA. The original move blew right through it and was close to the target exit point.
I've tried exiting at the 20 period MA before. It improved my win/loss slightly but cost me in profits. Exits are the area where I keep looking for ideas with my method. I haven't found anything better than what I'm currently using. If I have to sit through long periods then thats just what I have to do right now. I won't sacrifice profit for being comfortable in a trade. I've tried moving stops to breakeven and many other ideas and they all cost me in profits. I'd rather put up with discomfort until I find something better.
I don't know. This is the first month I've been awake for the whole session. I've been sleeping in and trading afternoons most of the past 2 years. I've been averaging about 8 trades per-month. I'm almost 1/2 way to my goal so I'm trying to be awake for the whole session so I can hit my target sooner.I guess I've been pretty lazy. If I'm lucky maybe there will be 20 opportunities per-month.
Any "setup", particularly one that virtually everyone knows about, requires periodic re-examination to determine whether or not it is still valid. Unfortunately, gurus seem as likely as anyone else to overlook this fact.
Experienced traders know that in a strong trend just about anything "works". However, strong trends have been few and far between during the last year, at least, and if this re-examination doesn't take place, one can bang his head against the market until his account is seriously damaged.
Right, this method will lose in strong trending days.
I don't have any good method of knowing. I take warning if the previous day had a open near the close, or a large gap open. Since I've been trading mostly in the afternoons, I'd pass on trading if the market had been trading in one direction from the open. If I see a setup in the first trade of the day and it loses, I wait until the market sets up a trade going with the early trend.
On 3/14 all the major indicies made an upward penetration of their 34day SMA. It took 4 months for a subsequent close below the 34day. From mid Mch-mid June the indicies were up 30%. I'd say thats a very nice trend! In fact for any one who cares look at both a daily 34SMA and a 21 day EMA over the past year. With the exception of last years Holiday season and this Summer, the market has had a series of very tradeable trends.
Working is necessary for peace of mind. If my two methods stop working and I don't have a job, I'm in trouble. Trading makes way more than I do as a musician. Every quarter I wire money to my bank account to pay the estimated taxes on the earnings. My job pays my daily bills so I can leave the trading accounts alone to grow until I reach my goal.
- Status