Emini divergence journal

[no_pm_please]

Quote from macal425:

How much discretion do you use in not taking a trade after it sets up. For example, say that the current 5 min bar does not make a new high but ends up being a strong down bar that takes out much of the range down to the lower Keltner. Would you still enter on the close of the bar or would you pass on the trade knowing that there is probably not much downside left?

The down bar would have to stay within the stop loss range. In this trade I've checked the Keltner width a couple of times and calculated the stop loss around 2.75. If the point of entry were more than 2.75 from the highest bar then I would have to wait for a retracement back up. If you look at some of the past trades you'll see after the entry the market usually comes back to the entry point and tests the high. That can be a good place to get in when the down bar moves too far.

 

[no_pm_please]

Short from 978.50 stop at 981.25 (2.75 pts stop loss)

 

[MTG]

Great Journal, thanks for sharing.
Confused a bit about the win/loss ratios

You said:
"The risk/reward overall for me has been better than 3:1. The win rate has been about 70% and the win versus loss rate on trades has been about 1.4 to 1. When the two are combined, it comes up to better than 3:1 total profit to total losses."

I am a bit math challenged so I might just be confused, but at a 70% win rate you, would have to get at least 2.5:1 on winners to net 1.4:1 overall.

To net 3:1 overall, you would have to get 4.7:1 on the winners at 70%.

(I can see that you might not use all of your initial stop amount because some of the trades are closed at end of the day. These trades could be a loss but not using up all the initial stop)

Am I missing something?
Thanks

MT

 

[no_pm_please]

Exit short 972.25

 

[jabbar11]

Looks like divergence in Chaikin at 9:40 Eastern Time and ADX > 30. Did the program go short at 97700 with a buy stop at 98050. Looks like it covered at 97200. About a 5 point gain.

jabbar11

 

[Magna]

Quote from jabbar11:

Did the program go short at 97700 with a buy stop at 98050.

From an earlier post by no_pm_please:

Quote from no_pm_please:

Short from 978.50 stop at 981.25

 

[Achiever]

You mentioned that you've experienced a drawdown of about 40 points during April.

I was wondering if you were able to draw any conclusions from this challenging period. What did you learn about this environment? How did it affect you psychologically? What kept your discipline?

 

[ptt]

Quote from no_pm_please:



2). I use market orders to get in and out. Sometimes if I need to be away from the screen I'll put in the stop and put in a limit order at a little less than the Keltner Channel band just to have it there in case the market moves fast while I'm away. I haven't had both the stop and the limit order hit yet (probably just a matter of time before I get hit by one of the emini bad spikes).

thanks for the great journal,

Interactive Brokers has bracket trading, where if one order is triggered, the other is cancelled. I'm sure other platforms have this as well. It allows you to set a stop and a target and walk away. It looks like that would completment this method.

You said you lost 40 points in April, was that because of the system or loss of trading discipline?

 

[jabbar11]

Magna,

Thanks

Quote from Magna:

From an earlier post by no_pm_please:

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from Magna:

Excellent journal. Simple, clear, crisp, straightforward, no touchy-feely, no fuzzy-wuzzy.... unlike most journals and methodologies at ET. Nice charts also, really fine job all around.

I agree. This is what a teaching journal ought to be, though if the "I need help" journals were as specific, they'd more likely be of benefit as well.