Emini divergence journal

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Quote from bubba7:

How do you use indicators to exit?
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Oops...forgot to put it in the exit method.

The basic method is either to get stopped out at the stop loss point or exit when the price touches the opposite Keltner Channel point. In real trading I usually exit just before the point is reached. Pretty simple and objective.
 
Last post of the first trade. Entry was at 6. 978.00. The stop loss point was 974.25. The target is the other side of the Keltner Channel. The stop wasn't hit and the other side of the Keltner Channel was touched at 984.21, so I would put in a market order and expect to get close to 984.00 on the emini. Actual high on the bar was 984.50 so might have had some positive slippage.

Trade result win +6.5 pts. risk was 3.75 pts. so reward to risk was about 1.7.

Any questions before I post the 8/4 trades?
 
Quote from no_pm_please:

Last post of the first trade. Entry was at 6. 978.00. The stop loss point was 974.25. The target is the other side of the Keltner Channel. The stop wasn't hit and the other side of the Keltner Channel was touched at 984.21, so I would put in a market order and expect to get close to 984.00 on the emini. Actual high on the bar was 984.50 so might have had some positive slippage.

Trade result win +6.5 pts. risk was 3.75 pts. so reward to risk was about 1.7.

Any questions before I post the 8/4 trades?
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Forgot the attachment.
 

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1. ADX crosses above 30 - 9:15 bar.
2. Divergence starts with 9:20 bar.
Keeps making new lows.
9:40 bar first up bar.
3. Keltner width 10.07 - stop loss is 3.5 on this trade
4. Buy near open of 9:45 bar at 966.75 stop loss 963.25.
5. Exit at 11:20 bar at 972.5

Entry long 966.75
Exit long 972.50

Profit(loss) +5.75
Risk 3.50

Risk/reward this trade about 1.6

Cumm. trades since 8/1.

# win 2
# loss 0

Profit of winners 11.75
Loss of losers 0.00
 

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Enjoying the thread so far. Divergence is one of my favorite plays.

Question on ADX:
Traditionally ADX is used to indicate a trend is in place, a rising number indicates a potential trend. You're setting up on an ADX of 30, implying a trend, but you're going the opposite way on the trade. Could you elaborate on the ADX portion of your strategy? I'll understand if not.

Anyway, enjoying the thread. Pls keep it up. We all learn from such threads.

Thanks.
 
Quote from AmbushHillbilly:

Enjoying the thread so far. Divergence is one of my favorite plays.

Question on ADX:
Traditionally ADX is used to indicate a trend is in place, a rising number indicates a potential trend. You're setting up on an ADX of 30, implying a trend, but you're going the opposite way on the trade. Could you elaborate on the ADX portion of your strategy? I'll understand if not.

Anyway, enjoying the thread. Pls keep it up. We all learn from such threads.

Thanks.
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I attended a seminar by Linda Raschke a couple of years ago. One of things she talked about was the age of short term trends. She uses ADX as a proxy to indicate when a breakout in the direction of a trend is young or old. I decided if she could use it for breakout trades, I could use it for trend reversals. I've seen elsewhere where a ADX on the 5 min. chart above 40 is supposed to be near the end of a trend. I think anything above 30 indicates it's getting close to the end.

I use everything as a combination. The Keltner shows when something is overbought. The ADX indicates when the trend is getting old. The Chaikin Osc. is used to indicate when the smart money is no longer flowing in the direction of the trend. The trigger is used to indicate the end of the momentum. Together they've been a powerful combination for me.
 
1. ADX remains above 30.
2. Divergence starts at 12:25 bar. Also last up bar.
3. Keltner width 8.35 - stop loss is 3.0 points.
4. Sell near open of 12:35 bar at 976.75 stop loss 979.75.
5. Stopped out at 1:35 bar at 979.75.

Entry short 976.75
Stopped out 979.75

Profit(loss) (-3.0)
Risk 3.0

Risk/reward this trade 0

Cumm. trades since 8/1

# win 2
# loss 1

Profit of winners 11.75
Loss of losers -3.0

Total profit(loss) +8.75
 

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Unusual day...3 setups

1. ADX crosses above 30 - 1:35 bar
2. Divergence starts at 2:05 bar
No more highs after it.
3. Keltner width 8.93 - Stop loss is 3.0 on this trade.
4. Sell near open of 2:15 bar at 983.50 stop loss 986.50
5. Trade exited on closing bar at 980.75

Entry short 983.50
Exit short (forced to close daytrade) 980.75

Profit(loss) +2.75
Risk 3.0

Risk/reward this trade .9

Cumm. trades since 8/1

# win 3
# loss 1

Profit of winners +14.50
Loss of losers -3.0
 

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Here's todays chart. As you can see, the ADX stayed below 30 until it crossed it at the 2:50 bar (1.) Divergence between volume and price started at 3:00 and continued until the close (2). Notice the price kept hitting new lows. The Keltner Channel width was 10.83 at the end so the next trade will use 3.75 as the stop loss.

I hate these end of day setups because you trade the next day on yesterday's info. I'd like to see a down bar to start tomorrow. If not and it closes below 962.00, then I'll take the long trade. Otherwise the risk/reward isn't good enough for me.

From now on I'll try and post the setups and trades as close to the actual entry as possible.
 

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Quote from no_pm_please:

I'm using TS2000i with Esignal as the datafeed. I subscribe to the CME. My cost is $182/mo.
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Ouch... TS2000i with the IB data would give you a zero monthly cost if you traded actively and used Metaserver to collect your data from the IB.

Just a thought. Nice thread, BTW...
 
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