I think we ought not to be fixated with % winners. Albeit 90% sounds a bit high. Maybe he is taking scratch trades out of the %? Anyway it is highly feasible for a scalper with a multi car strategy to average 60-80% winners because the profit target contracts are winners a very high % of the time. In fact when you have a multi contract strategy a high winning % might be a necessity just to break even. Look at the following:
"A" trades 2 contracts, exiting 1st car on profit target of .75 and letting the 2nd car run and exiting based on discretion. "A" takes an average loss of 2.25. On average his 2nd contract nets him 1.5 (some more, some less). In this case "A" will need to average a very high # of wins to offset his occasional but relatively large losers (2 x 2.25). The breakeven point for "A" is a winning % of:
((.75 + 1.5) x a%) = (4.5 x (1-a%) or a win % of: 67% (assuming my math is not in error)
That is a pretty high breakeven %. This means that if someone were batting 75% then his average trade would be: .56. To me this means there isn't a lot of room for error with the trading strategy in this example.
"A" can improve his results by doing any of the following: reducing his avg stop loss to say 1.25, increasing his average trade on the 2nd contract, increasing his profit target on contract #1, increasing his win %.
This type of trading methodology has its plusses and minuses but ultimately the individual will need to determine if he has the ability/desire to make a high % of winners as well as all the other factors. There are ways to make a low % of winners profitable too, it just comes down to what the individual CAN achieve and what the individual WANTS to tolerate.
I have no idea how anyone else's strategy works out on paper so the above is just for illustrative purposes and is not intended to represent any particular strategy, especially the strategy of anyone who has posted in this thread.
Good luck!
"A" trades 2 contracts, exiting 1st car on profit target of .75 and letting the 2nd car run and exiting based on discretion. "A" takes an average loss of 2.25. On average his 2nd contract nets him 1.5 (some more, some less). In this case "A" will need to average a very high # of wins to offset his occasional but relatively large losers (2 x 2.25). The breakeven point for "A" is a winning % of:
((.75 + 1.5) x a%) = (4.5 x (1-a%) or a win % of: 67% (assuming my math is not in error)
That is a pretty high breakeven %. This means that if someone were batting 75% then his average trade would be: .56. To me this means there isn't a lot of room for error with the trading strategy in this example.
"A" can improve his results by doing any of the following: reducing his avg stop loss to say 1.25, increasing his average trade on the 2nd contract, increasing his profit target on contract #1, increasing his win %.
This type of trading methodology has its plusses and minuses but ultimately the individual will need to determine if he has the ability/desire to make a high % of winners as well as all the other factors. There are ways to make a low % of winners profitable too, it just comes down to what the individual CAN achieve and what the individual WANTS to tolerate.
I have no idea how anyone else's strategy works out on paper so the above is just for illustrative purposes and is not intended to represent any particular strategy, especially the strategy of anyone who has posted in this thread.
Good luck!