Elysian TA/MTA Journals: Trend Following, Global Macro [ES, CL, GC, SI, ZC, ZS, Forex, REITs, 2024]

ElysianSignals

ElysianSignals

Elysian TA/MTA Journals: Trend Following, Global Macro
[ES, CL, GC, SI, ZC, ZS, Forex, REITs, 2024] ​

Dear Esteemed Members,

I initiated a trading discussion about the Technical Analytics (TA) Multi-Timeframe Analytics (MTA) of my favorite instruments, including ES, CL, GC, SI, ZC, ZS, Forex, and REITs.

The goal of the discussion is to order my thoughts about the markets and open them so you can influence me with your opinion. I'm only 29, and except for my Uni years at Penn, USA, I've been living in Zürich. I admit to knowing members with multiple of the experience I have. So, I hope to learn much from you this year.

Here, I'll present mostly trend-following and global macro strategies. In general, those strategies leave a time window for us to cross-check opinions and help each other.

I might have mentioned I'm also doing arbitrage, market making, liquidity taking/providing, and HFT. You can forget those.

No, don't forget them, but natural language isn't the best method to show them. Go to my "Automated High-Frequency Trading Bots (GPU, CPU): Live Results Comparison [Institutional Scale]" thread, where I'll present trades with a different method.

Recently, I've asked everyone what about the form of the discussion. I concluded that I'll open a single thread for many pairs and strategies and organize everything with a live Google document.

My disclaimer is that it's my personal journal, and I'm writing alone, save for your contributions. The journal is my opinion and yours if you help me. So, our opinion doesn't indicate the opinion of the professional brokers at the financial institutions where I'm involved in any way.

Writing on my own, I won't fill everything overnight, but by 2025, I expect to load all 8 pages of the journal document and close every pair with a profit that exceeds the market growth.

Here's the live journal.
( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RXFNunUk7GzIcPilXtsnsjBmr44jpe-VnU2jKZ232e8/edit?usp=sharing )

I've allowed everyone with the link (and consequentially all of you) to comment directly in the journal. You can add comments to particular journal parts that your fellow traders will see, and you can make suggestions. Don't be trolling.

Best Regards,
Ely
 
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New Top, Old Resistance: Mixed News Question Bullish Supertrend​

Dear Esteemed Traders,

TECHNICAL ANALYTICS

Zooming out on the chart, ES hit a level that might be a resistance since January 2022, formed by a previous top. Historic tops often act as a resistance. Alone this would be a weak indication, but the price managed to hit that level at the same time when it also met the rising resistance from historic bottoms. See the red line on the chart.

I can observe double bearish signals on a bullish super trend, in which the price seems to have crossed down together with the EMAs in the previous month. I wouldn't call super trend bearish yet, but the so far strong bullishness of it became questionable.

MACD made a bearish cross and made a journey towards the bearish side of the indicator below the price chart.

RSI went extremely negative after an extended period spent in the upper half of the indicator. It means that ES might have been overbought, and the market signals the start of a correction to this overboughtness.

The possible correction move paired with a volume that matches the buy volume candles of the mentioned rally. This volume profile further powers the idea that the people who have been buying ES since October might feel the level to take profit on their investments.

The Money Flow Index (MFI) at the bottom and Bull-Bear Power (BBP) above it share the bearish view. BBP isn't too bearish, but it's been showing a weakening bullish power since December.

Finally, the $4736 support seems to be holding up the market from crashing. If the support breaks, the price can fall to the next support. I observed a support of around $4600.

These are the analytics, I found, but let's consider news trading.

NEWS

The Federal Reserve has signaled its intention to raise interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. This could weigh on stocks, as higher interest rates can make borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers.

Recent economic data has been mixed, with some indicators showing signs of slowing growth. This could raise concerns about the health of the economy and further dampen investor sentiment.

Earnings season is underway, and some companies have reported disappointing results. This could lead investors to expect lower earnings growth overall, which could put downward pressure on stock prices.

In total, I wouldn't call ES straight bearish, but I claim the bullish trend to weaken and I'm looking for shorts below the $4736 support line.

Greetings,
Ely
 
Come on, ridicolous standard indicators, and nothing special with MACD and RSI. There is no edge. Wake up thread operator. You sounded fresh with your approach, now I get an impression you are just another newbie.
 
destriero said:
Are you going to post fills with stops/targets?
More...

Yes, when I open a trade, I'll fill targets and stops. Now, I'm waiting for confirmation of the analytics I posted.

TrAndy2022 said:
Come on, ridicolous standard indicators, and nothing special with MACD and RSI. There is no edge. Wake up thread operator. You sounded fresh with your approach, now I get an impression you are just another newbie.
More...

Standard indicators are often more profitable than you'd believe.

Besides the standard indicators, I also use original ones. There are some that I've shared on the forum. But I'll explain them when I can best demonstrate their unique approach in a new trade. So far, my conclusion would be the same even with them.

Also, I'd consider natural language processing an edge in the above-mentioned analytics.
 
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ES is below the support line.

I wouldn't believe the support is gone.

However, I'd add a higher probability to the bearish scenario playing out now.
 
Last edited:
I'll return in a few hours. Consequentially, I'll write the next update when I return.

Based on the current setup, I'd hold on to the short with a stop loss slightly above the violated support. That's the upper green line on the chart. The target would be around $4600. The setup has mostly stayed since yesterday with the expected development of a new bearish supertrend appearing on the chart. Yesterday, I was writing about the price crossing the bullish trend down. Now, the trend seems to be bearish.

It's not a financial advice. Everything I write, I do for entertainment. To succeed in trading, you've to do your research. Don't blindly copy me.
 
ElysianSignals said:
I'll return in a few hours. Consequentially, I'll write the next update when I return.

Based on the current setup, I'd hold on to the short with a stop loss slightly above the violated support. That's the upper green line on the chart. The target would be around $4600. The setup has mostly stayed since yesterday with the expected development of a new bearish supertrend appearing on the chart. Yesterday, I was writing about the price crossing the bullish trend down. Now, the trend seems to be bearish.

It's not a financial advice. Everything I write, I do for entertainment. To succeed in trading, you've to do your research. Don't blindly copy me.
More...

What short?
 
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