1242 is no big deal.
The 50 day MA is still coming thru at 1240.35 and the 38.2% correction of the entire rally up from the October lows gives a target of 1234.75
Cheers!
Elliott wave
- Thread starter quintrix
- Start date
1242 is no big deal.
The 50 day MA is still coming thru at 1240.35 and the 38.2% correction of the entire rally up from the October lows gives a target of 1234.75
Cheers!
But as you have shown, the fib retracements don't even start till much lower levels . . .
If this wave is a real E (or 5) ... these fib retracements (of the last leg), doesn't have any value, because E is the end of [C], and the prices will fall to the lower Trend Line (see the weekly chart that I've posted)
You need to re-calculate the fib retracements from the 08/13/04 low, to the high of 12/14/05...... the 38.2% is at 1193,5 just near the lower (ascending) Trend Line of the channel
-50%: 1168
-61.8%: 1143
In other words: below 1242 cash (confirmed by two close daily), I will tend to short any rally, because we are headed down in the intermediate term
Quintrix
Quintrix,
Just want to share my view on your "Line in the Sand" blog post.
Counting the waves from the lows, it seems that the upmove has completed its course, ending in a fifth wave diagonal triangle (overlapping end points of wave 4 and wave 1). The next move after such fifth usually a return towards the beginning of the fifth. The first correction (wave A) will take it around 1168, and the final C towards 1060. It would be too early to call for an irregular top, but if wave A ends with a 3 (creating a 3-3-5), then I would expect an irregular B (above 1275). But a 5-waver wave A may suggest that B may form a regular top, creating a 5-3-5 in all. What do you think?
Just want to share my view on your "Line in the Sand" blog post.
Counting the waves from the lows, it seems that the upmove has completed its course, ending in a fifth wave diagonal triangle (overlapping end points of wave 4 and wave 1). The next move after such fifth usually a return towards the beginning of the fifth. The first correction (wave A) will take it around 1168, and the final C towards 1060. It would be too early to call for an irregular top, but if wave A ends with a 3 (creating a 3-3-5), then I would expect an irregular B (above 1275). But a 5-waver wave A may suggest that B may form a regular top, creating a 5-3-5 in all. What do you think?
It's hard to say...For now I am focused to the picture that I described on my blog. Below 1242, I expect at least a test of the lower T-Line of the rising channel (1194/1200)....at that point the market will show us if the bulls are still alive...If 1242 holds we are headed into new highs (the markets can't remain motionless)
Sure that if we breakdown this support, the implications are very bearish for the Long term and the entire retracement of the five wave diagonal should be in the cards (1060)
If we are really at the end of 5 of (C) of (on the weekly), we could enter again in a bear market
Quintrix
I'd like to correct something on my recent post. I wrote that the fifth was a triangle. It should've been a leading diagonal. A triangle should be a 3-3-3-3-3, while this one is a 5-3-5-3-5. Silly me. The pattern itself doesn't look like a triangle. It does looks like a diagonal.
Cheers!
Cheers!
Heading for 1287 SPX.