Elliott Wave Suggests 1445 Target
- Thread starter Landis82
- Start date
The greatest elliot wave is when one finally waves goodbye to it. Based on my experience it's pure snake oil.
Expect the market to open firm and attempt a rally early in the session. A failure to penetrate the 1426.50 in the first three hours will suggest that the market will trade in a sidewise pattern between 1426.50/1419.55.
This being a weekly and monthly close today a close above the 1421.05 level will signal a bullish tone for the month of January.
Happy New Year everyone!
This being a weekly and monthly close today a close above the 1421.05 level will signal a bullish tone for the month of January.
Happy New Year everyone!
Quote from Landis82:
First leg up in this 5th and final wave started on Nov. 28th at 1377.83 and terminated at 1406.30 on Nov. 30th for a total of 28.47 points.
28.47 added to the Dec. 8th low of 1403.67 gives a target of:
1432.14
Looks like we essentially got there today ( 1431.81 ), testing Friday morning's early pop at 14.31.63 and failing to make a new high.
1445 still on track.
A running corrective phase (wave 4) has unfolded for the past 5 weeks suggesting that the bottom of wave four was completed at the 1403.97 level on January 8th.
This suggests that the next sequence will unfold in a similar length of wave 1, which was approximately 57 points in length. This indicates that the next sequence should be completed between the 1453.75/1459.50 levels. This will likely unfold over the next 34 days.
It will take a close above the 1433.15 level today to confirm this analysis. Should this occur, the short-term target is the 1439.20 level and will likely be completed in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The resistance today is at the 1433.15 level. If penetrated a rally toward the 1435.20 level will be signaled. Should this level be penetrated a rally toward the 1439.20 level will unfold.
This suggests that the next sequence will unfold in a similar length of wave 1, which was approximately 57 points in length. This indicates that the next sequence should be completed between the 1453.75/1459.50 levels. This will likely unfold over the next 34 days.
It will take a close above the 1433.15 level today to confirm this analysis. Should this occur, the short-term target is the 1439.20 level and will likely be completed in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The resistance today is at the 1433.15 level. If penetrated a rally toward the 1435.20 level will be signaled. Should this level be penetrated a rally toward the 1439.20 level will unfold.
Yesterdayâs action reversed Mondayâs downward pattern. The close above the 1426.40 level at 1427.99 suggests that the market has begun the 5 to 8 day advance as I discussed on another thread in which the market completed the second part of the "5-3-5" sequence ( that being the "3" days down ).
Today, should the market close above yesterday's high at 1431.33 and close higher, the projections for the next 2 sessions are for a rally toward the 1438.75/1441.05 levels.
The target for the 5 to 8 day sequence is for a minimum rally toward the 1455.15 level. The extremes for this pattern suggest a rally toward the 1466.96/1474.30 could be reached.
Today, should the market close above yesterday's high at 1431.33 and close higher, the projections for the next 2 sessions are for a rally toward the 1438.75/1441.05 levels.
The target for the 5 to 8 day sequence is for a minimum rally toward the 1455.15 level. The extremes for this pattern suggest a rally toward the 1466.96/1474.30 could be reached.
Quote from Landis82:
to finish this entire rally sequence up from the Summer low.
Wave 1 = 68 points in the SPX
Now that we have recently concluded an A-B-C Wave 4 with the low coming in at 1377.83 last week ( and the "B" wave having made a new high ), one can simply add 68 points to that low of the C-leg in Wave 4 at 1377.83 in order to obtain the ultimate SPX objective of:
1445
A more conservative objective would suggest that Wave 5 does not share "equality" with Wave 1, and thus is a fibonnaci of Wave 1.
For example, .618 of 68 = 42.02 points
1377.83 + 42.02 = 1419.85
Either way, the wave structure is so "mature" at this point and time that it does not allow for any variability, or subdivision as is usually the case in "complex" Wave 3's. As a result, we are coming to the end of this awesome rally, with concrete targets having been generated for the S&P.
Good Luck to All
my guess would be, that if your wrong, your alternative wave count would still be right
elliot wave = unfiltered snake oil
For one thing, I do not use Elliott Wave in and of itself.
Secondly, I have a much better understanding of it then most amateurs that simply subscribe to the Prechter's of the World and yet have no idea or understanding of how the wave counts work.
I make money with it.
Thought I would share my insights and targets with it, as opposed to some of the "blowhards" on this website that show up in the Trading Forum always touting the latest "Gloom and Doom" scenario that is not based in any technical analysis whatsoever.
Most people on this website have no idea what a simple "measured-move" is technically speaking. I guess I was wrong in thinking that people might wish to learn about "5-3-5" patterns ( that I spoke of late last week on another thread ) that can prove to be highly profitable.
Guess I was wrong about the kind of people on ET.
Goodbye, and good luck.