Here is a 1Y with the dwstart
Elite Trader's Gambler's Anonymous ETGA
- Thread starter ElectricSavant
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I am going to step out on a limb here. This is not an exact science, but I believe an inference can be drawn here.
After looking at these long and short dwstarts:
PAIR..........1Y..........................5Y
AUD/JPY... 50 units-100/350..... 25 units-100/650
AUD/USD.. 50 units-150/300..... 25 units-100/650
CHF/JPY... 50 units-300/150..... 25 units-75/675
EUR/AUD... 50 units-400/50...... 25 units-475/275
EUR/CHF... 50 units-100/350..... 25 units-200/550
EUR/GBP... 50 units-150/250..... 25 units-175/575
EUR/JPY... 50 units-250/250..... 25 units-75/675
EUR/USD... 50 units-300/150.... 25 units-125/625
GBP/CHF... 50 units-200/250.... 25 units-325/425
GBP/JPY... 50 units-250/200..... 25 units-100/650
GBP/USD... 50 units- 300/150.... 25 units-150/600
NZD/USD... 50 units-100/350.... 25 units-75/700
USD/CAD... 50 units-250/200.... 25 units-600/150
USD/CHF... 50 units- 150/300.... 25 units-650/100
USD/JPY.... 50 units-200/250.....25 units-625/125
Could it be said that if starting with the one year dwstart, if the pool is breached then the trader should halv the trade size while outside the pool on a breach, and resume when trading inside the pool?
Michael B.
P.S. Finer tuning can take place by integrating 2, 3, and 4y histories into the mix...but my intuition says its not needed as these are just generalities.
After looking at these long and short dwstarts:
PAIR..........1Y..........................5Y
AUD/JPY... 50 units-100/350..... 25 units-100/650
AUD/USD.. 50 units-150/300..... 25 units-100/650
CHF/JPY... 50 units-300/150..... 25 units-75/675
EUR/AUD... 50 units-400/50...... 25 units-475/275
EUR/CHF... 50 units-100/350..... 25 units-200/550
EUR/GBP... 50 units-150/250..... 25 units-175/575
EUR/JPY... 50 units-250/250..... 25 units-75/675
EUR/USD... 50 units-300/150.... 25 units-125/625
GBP/CHF... 50 units-200/250.... 25 units-325/425
GBP/JPY... 50 units-250/200..... 25 units-100/650
GBP/USD... 50 units- 300/150.... 25 units-150/600
NZD/USD... 50 units-100/350.... 25 units-75/700
USD/CAD... 50 units-250/200.... 25 units-600/150
USD/CHF... 50 units- 150/300.... 25 units-650/100
USD/JPY.... 50 units-200/250.....25 units-625/125
Could it be said that if starting with the one year dwstart, if the pool is breached then the trader should halv the trade size while outside the pool on a breach, and resume when trading inside the pool?
Michael B.
P.S. Finer tuning can take place by integrating 2, 3, and 4y histories into the mix...but my intuition says its not needed as these are just generalities.
Folks,
This is an open discussion, and all are welcome. There should not be a question of spoonfeeding or if Electric is looking for a freebie. I am willing to do the work, and I am.
It's just that these open Forums and its participants are not used to this.
I hope you are learning something, because I sure am, and am glad this Journal is going forward. We shall be forward testing again soon, with real money.
Take you place in history, and jump into the pool! Contribute to this Journal.
And guess what? There is more than one way to trade this!
Michael B.
P.S. The merge between the faure time increments and the dwstart shall be interesting indeed.
This is an open discussion, and all are welcome. There should not be a question of spoonfeeding or if Electric is looking for a freebie. I am willing to do the work, and I am.
It's just that these open Forums and its participants are not used to this.
I hope you are learning something, because I sure am, and am glad this Journal is going forward. We shall be forward testing again soon, with real money.
Take you place in history, and jump into the pool! Contribute to this Journal.
And guess what? There is more than one way to trade this!
Michael B.
P.S. The merge between the faure time increments and the dwstart shall be interesting indeed.
Electric,
Why don't you write a book?
This System #1 that you are working on is a long term system. The next time you begin to forward test you may not get the opportunity to exit for several years. I hope you know what you are doing.
You are spreading the trading increments wide apart...don't forget the cost of carry, even though it is a tiny, tiny fraction of trading pips.
I suggest that you get off this percentage trade ticket as you are suggesting with you posts above and "dial in" the correct units to start with and to halv, to insure the yield will give you your goal of 25% TOTAL FOREX PORTFOLIO APR after payment for Labor.
Wifey.
Why don't you write a book?
This System #1 that you are working on is a long term system. The next time you begin to forward test you may not get the opportunity to exit for several years. I hope you know what you are doing.
You are spreading the trading increments wide apart...don't forget the cost of carry, even though it is a tiny, tiny fraction of trading pips.
I suggest that you get off this percentage trade ticket as you are suggesting with you posts above and "dial in" the correct units to start with and to halv, to insure the yield will give you your goal of 25% TOTAL FOREX PORTFOLIO APR after payment for Labor.
Wifey.
ElectricSavant,
Yes, that is what I ment to do, but I messed up on one or more of them( I was in a rush at the time). Your work is getting interesting, think we may be onto something here. Now we need to do some number crunching and see what the best time frame, # of targes, grid space, ect.
David
dw,
This is exciting! I could not do it without you! AND ALL OF YOU. (thank you for the kind PM's and all the encouragement...this is for you ET).
Michael B.
Since the decimals never change..I just grayed out the box...but left it there instead of putting it hidden in the formula...you never know..... Forex could change the decimals on us..or we could get some new pairs.
This is exciting! I could not do it without you! AND ALL OF YOU. (thank you for the kind PM's and all the encouragement...this is for you ET).
Michael B.
Since the decimals never change..I just grayed out the box...but left it there instead of putting it hidden in the formula...you never know..... Forex could change the decimals on us..or we could get some new pairs.
Journal readers,
For those of you following System #2 Cash & Carry...You wll notice a new tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet, explaining the rules.
Please help me edit this. Is it understandable?
Michael B.
For those of you following System #2 Cash & Carry...You wll notice a new tab at the bottom of the spreadsheet, explaining the rules.
Please help me edit this. Is it understandable?
Michael B.
ES,
Sorry you had to abandon system #1. I know you were looking forward to that being a solid answer. It is great the way you continue the search. I have spent several years exploring non directional and bi directional approaches using futures options and can relate to your journey.
Peace, good trades and good searching to you.
Lar
Sorry you had to abandon system #1. I know you were looking forward to that being a solid answer. It is great the way you continue the search. I have spent several years exploring non directional and bi directional approaches using futures options and can relate to your journey.
Peace, good trades and good searching to you.
Lar
ElectricSavant,
Could you explain this a little more? Is your chart showing # targes Units long/short? Why do you say to cut your size in half when the pool is breached?
My theory is to keep my size the same unless my unrealized gets too large and I need to take drastic measures to keep form getting a margin call, or my nav increases a certain precentage then I increase trade size in steps.
This is what it is all about here We each share our thoughts and ideas. Then we all work together to come up with something better than any one of us alone can do. If we will all just put our heads together we can make this work. Things are starting to come together, I can feel it!
David
dw,
Sometimes I can get quite dyslexic in my thinking. I lay in bed at night unable to sleep pondering stuff. For several years I got rather lost. seriously...Wifey has helped me together with the meds...
Here was my crazy thinking: (it has probably been said in the other Jourals a million times)
The money is made within the pool borders while max unrealized is not growing...isn't that the time to put on size?
You will notice on all these pairs the pool widens and the wider it gets the more we trade inside of it..(I truly love this). Can you imagine during the accelerated size phase the unrealized ratio could actually SHRINK!, because of the growing realized at double the rate!
Michael B.
Sometimes I can get quite dyslexic in my thinking. I lay in bed at night unable to sleep pondering stuff. For several years I got rather lost. seriously...Wifey has helped me together with the meds...
Here was my crazy thinking: (it has probably been said in the other Jourals a million times)
The money is made within the pool borders while max unrealized is not growing...isn't that the time to put on size?
You will notice on all these pairs the pool widens and the wider it gets the more we trade inside of it..(I truly love this). Can you imagine during the accelerated size phase the unrealized ratio could actually SHRINK!, because of the growing realized at double the rate!
Michael B.
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