Elite Trader's Gambler's Anonymous ETGA

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When "eying" a weekly or monthly chart you cannot see all the ups and downs on that candlestick...it is extremely deceptive...(I just opened up Strategy Builder that I got free from MT)

How can anybody have all the one minute data for the last ten years from Oanda...then have enough power to backtest it? When did the EURO begin? What do these ten year charts use for the EUR/USD?


Michael B.

P.S. One time I had a very long extension cord and my neighbor needed some help. We stretched that cord all the way to his house. He told me he could not believe it.
 
Davidwillis

Considering what you said below, something I've realized as I've been tinkering on a demo account is that say you place your buy/sells every 10 pips with 20pip targets like you state below.

If it moves a straight 100 pips then you should have profited from 10-80 with the 90 and 100 pip order still open. This should total 160pips realized profit, right? 8 orders that hit targets.

But on the flipside your not just down -100pips, because if you truly buy for every sell and vice versa, this would put you down

-90 for the 10 order
-80 for the 20 order
-70 for the 30 order
....
-10 for the 90 order

which totals -450 pips.

Obviously, if it retraces these orders will profit, which is what this system hopes to capture. This just made me realize how important the spacing/incrementing of orders and order size is.



Quote from Davidwillis:

First of all I want to say good work. In the last week I have read all of the threads on MT, OANDA, and here. I started trading in a small $500 account. I am trading usd/chf and eur/usd using a sub account to trade both ways. I have just set my limits every 10 pips with targets every 20 pips. I have been trading 100 units at a time, and have been averaging over 1% per day. with an my unrealized loss of $30 after one week.

You got me thinking a little after reading this thread. Since Flow>Capacity, Can we develop a system that profits 100% off flow, but only looses 100% off of the capacity? For example if the market moves in a strait line 1000 pips, we would only be down 1000 pips, then on a few retracements we would be back to positive. Just a thought I am going to think on it a little more.

David
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Quote from mogul:

well, the range from .8222 to 1.4472, with positions in 50pip increments, is 393,750 pips in unrealized if all are held.

Over a 10yr span, you would need to average 39,375 pips per year, or 164 pips per day (assuming 240 trading days) in order to breakeven.

Seems like a lot of work to breakeven!
:D
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ES, here is what you must prove by backtesting in order to ascertain if this method is safe or even worth the effort

pip spacing and size increment does not help, everything is relative
 
This was my thinking too. The system being forward tested with real money, uses natural flow floating incremental pivots coupled with variable percentage intraday martingale. It's been my experience to make small adjustments to compounding systems and test, test, test.....

"Dialing in" the gambing meter is not perfect yet, especially if this method of trading represents a "slow bleed" of capital through increasing of capacity and the carry of high unrealized from the get-go and are just "prolonging the inevitable".

Michael B.

P.S. The key here is that accepting high unrealized must fit with YOUR style of trading and you must be comfortable with it. The sliding scales introduced facilitate the "fluctuations" in the drawdown that presents itself daily. The base that is being watched closely is the drawdown in % column in the spreadsheet. if that percent can be maintained between 30-40% through the sliding scales, then who cares how high the unrealized gets...can't you see it.....come on!





Quote from Ezekiel:

Davidwillis

Considering what you said below, something I've realized as I've been tinkering on a demo account is that say you place your buy/sells every 10 pips with 20pip targets like you state below.

If it moves a straight 100 pips then you should have profited from 10-80 with the 90 and 100 pip order still open. This should total 160pips realized profit, right? 8 orders that hit targets.

But on the flipside your not just down -100pips, because if you truly buy for every sell and vice versa, this would put you down

-90 for the 10 order
-80 for the 20 order
-70 for the 30 order
....
-10 for the 90 order

which totals -450 pips.

Obviously, if it retraces these orders will profit, which is what this system hopes to capture. This just made me realize how important the spacing/incrementing of orders and order size is.
More...
 
You know,

Electric may have something there. Read the last set of bold italics.

The base that is being watched closely is the drawdown in % column in the spreadsheet. if that percent can be maintained between 30-40% through the sliding scales, then who cares how high the unrealized gets...can't you see it.....come on!

You know, Electric told me that he dislikes bills. He said that to "live within your means" you must pay cash for everything and learn to wait for the money first, then go buy. He actually is not a cheapskate. He says that to understand your condition and to not live in an illusion, one must see the "money on the table" and pay everything as soon as it comes in. If there is some left over, then go out and spend it! (I truly get sick when I write this, for 15 years I have heard this, but I am a student and he has provided for the family quite well by himself, since we have been married).

But as another has said here, Electric is handling this trading project like the USA manages the countries capacity, deficit and budget. The dynamics of this seem to go against Electric's mentality. Carrying and managing the unrealized through trade replacement is truly not dealing in reality. But he seems to propose/introduce/illustrate the ability to pull money out and reallocate to cash on a daily basis with this "flow and carry" system...how can this juggling act be!

I think I can see Electric's seriousness now as once this system is entered you are in it for the next ten years perhaps (the question is can more money be "pulled" during the journey compared to the unrealized that reality is, pay attention to the parity column). So be cautious folks, you may enter but you may never leave...Hotel California... such a lovely place ....lal lalala

Wifey
 

As time passes the borders get wider and the ability to trade between them increases.

When trading in between them the trades get bigger, faster causing the drawdown to decrease.

GET THIS AND YOU WILL UNDERSTAND

I CAN'T SEEM TO EXPLAIN THIS CONCEPT. IT CHALLENGES MY LITERARY LEVELS. I TRY TO "PUT IT" IN SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAYS IN EACH POST, TO HIT MOST PERSONALITIES.
 
oh sigh (I might take some time off again),

Will someone go get the "big guns" and bring them in here please...

Nitro

ProfLogic

Jack

Subliminal

Mathematician

the others...can't remember...oh yeah Steve and Acrary, but they are no longer here.

I need some pro traders in here to evaluate this....I thank, Mogul, illiquid and Jasonjm most of all, at least they are honest and trying to help out a fellow trader.

Michael B.

P.S. Tripack if you are reading this, I know your abilities...HELP!

P.S.S. Those of you lurking, smiling, pondering.....please now is your time. chime in with your thoughts and concerns, this might yield some more hints for all of us, no matter how meaningless it seems. For those of you with the answers scared to share because you think it will dilute the effectiveness, I do not believe it can. Not this method of trading in this market.

 
I NO LONGER HAVE INVESTOR R/T AND I DO NOT USE ANY OTHER CHARTS OTHER THAN OANDA'S FREE CHARTS THAT COME WITH THEIR PLATFORM.

I DO NOT HAVE ANY BACKTESTING SOFTWARE (INVESTOR R/T HAD THAT TOO) OR ALL OF THE 10Y HISTORIES OF THE CURRENCIES I AM TRADING.

I CAN LEARN CODE AND CAN BACKTEST SO IF OTHERS HERE CANNOT HELP, ITS JUST TO GET THE API AT OANDA NEXT YEAR. PATIENCE, I HAVE THE REST OF MY LIFE.

MEANWHILE THIS JOURNAL SERVES AS THE FORWARD TEST. I THANK EACH AND EVERY ONE OF THE TRADERS PARTICIPATING IN THIS RESEARCH.

GOOD TRADING TO YOU

Michael B.
 
Mogul,

I'm not trying to be a smartarse..but are you saying that you do not know and there may be a way, without knowing direction?

Be careful how you answer. I DO listen. Think outside of the box. Is it worth my time (consider you and I to be of the same mind)?

Michael B.


Quote from mogul:

ES, here is what you must prove by backtesting in order to ascertain if this method is safe or even worth the effort

pip spacing and size increment does not help, everything is relative
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