Elite Trader's Gambler's Anonymous ETGA

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The proposed transition will look like this:
  • $3,500.00 System#1 ($1,500.00 + $1,500.00 + $375.00 + $375.00 + $375.00 + $375.00)
  • $1,684.50 Cash
  • $ 500.00 System #2 (but it first, must come back to reduce it this far)

Michael B.
 
First of all I want to say good work. In the last week I have read all of the threads on MT, OANDA, and here. I started trading in a small $500 account. I am trading usd/chf and eur/usd using a sub account to trade both ways. I have just set my limits every 10 pips with targets every 20 pips. I have been trading 100 units at a time, and have been averaging over 1% per day. with an my unrealized loss of $30 after one week.

You got me thinking a little after reading this thread. Since Flow>Capacity, Can we develop a system that profits 100% off flow, but only looses 100% off of the capacity? For example if the market moves in a strait line 1000 pips, we would only be down 1000 pips, then on a few retracements we would be back to positive. Just a thought I am going to think on it a little more.

David
 
Davidwillis,

Thank you for the kind words and congrats on your trading grid!

You are most welcome here. I am purposely thinking out loud as I promised the Forum, that I would share in the thought process (you must excuse this Savant's ramblings, I have been known to complicate the "boiling of water" :)).

Please Jump in....and share if you wish. At least I know someone is reading and listening to me.

Remember, there is no hurry, I have the rest of my life. Any feelings of anxiety should be answered with a day off!

Michael B.

P.S. David, your work sounds exciting and looking forward to your observations and ideas...Isn't this a marvelous way to trade? The wider the grid gets or the bigger the pool gets...the more probable you can stay inside of it and make money! We are storekeepers building our inventory or....Retail Market Makers taking the other side of the Dealers trades ....lol

P.S.S. So you have longs and shorts in both pair that are 90% anti-correlated?




Quote from Davidwillis:

First of all I want to say good work. In the last week I have read all of the threads on MT, OANDA, and here. I started trading in a small $500 account. I am trading usd/chf and eur/usd using a sub account to trade both ways. I have just set my limits every 10 pips with targets every 20 pips. I have been trading 100 units at a time, and have been averaging over 1% per day. with an my unrealized loss of $30 after one week.

You got me thinking a little after reading this thread. Since Flow>Capacity, Can we develop a system that profits 100% off flow, but only looses 100% off of the capacity? For example if the market moves in a strait line 1000 pips, we would only be down 1000 pips, then on a few retracements we would be back to positive. Just a thought I am going to think on it a little more.

David
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Folks,

Gird up your loins, take shield and armour....This is going to be an interesting week next week..

Salutations brethren, and may the most holy one on high shine on you.
 
jasonjm,

I cannot. But If one can grab enough while there is time is all that matters. All those ups and downs on both sides of the teeter totter must be longer, if stretched out is a straight line. No instruments fall/rise straight forever.

I am not sure you proved otherwise.

Michael B.

P.S. If movement is 5 steps forward and three steps back what would your answer be?...



Quote from jasonjm:

can someone point me to where it was proven mathematically that

flow > capacity ?


I missed that part in all these threads
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Yes, I certainly didnt prove anything, I agree with that

Just pointing out that everyone who is using this strategy is using it based on the assumption that capacity > flow (as you put it)
 
I believe Flow> Capacity. Did I post backwards or did one of the illustrations come out wrong? (if the water overflows, then it goes into my pocket, is what I mean. If the price stays within the pool deck)

I can't speak cryptically too well, and I might of got it backwards...

Michael B.

P.S. But could you imagine that its probably true that price moves in a jagged way even though for ten years it can descend or ascend? Looking at those weekly/monthly charts can be deceptive, while trying to observe how much flow there is.

P.S.S. jasonjm, I am trying to understand...please save my trading project. I need to know how you ran your tests. Have you missed anything? This is escaping me, and I do not want to waste years to find out what you seem to know. Is this a slow death? Actually, I do not wish that you are correct or incorrect at this point, but I need to understand, so that I can do something about it. Would the sliding incremental scales and/or the slight variable trade ticket percent and the slight martingale change any of this? How can this be backtested? Could we go trade by trade over those two years you checked? I really must be in denial to forget your work. I need your brains jasonjm....Can you explain to me in a way that I can understand why this will not work? I will forever be thankful to you.


Quote from jasonjm:

Yes, I certainly didnt prove anything, I agree with that

Just pointing out that everyone who is using this strategy is using it based on the assumption that capacity > flow (as you put it)
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Excellent ideas discussed here. I came visiting from Moneytec (same username there as here). Until I'm in a position to actually fund an account for doing this, I'll just keep visiting.

To answer the inevitable question, I did not vote and have no intention of doing so as I have no opinion. In fact, my opinion is that talking about gambling is just a distraction to the great ideas being discussed and tested. My other opinion is that if it makes money both ethically and legally, then I really don't care how one labels it (trading, gambling, risk-taking, etc), I'm willing to try it with resources if available. Otherwise, I may just demo trade it meanwhile.

On another front, being in between jobs (because of a takeover), I do have 15+ years of programming experience, if needed. Pay may not be needed, some other arrangement, such as not needing to pay the stiff Oanda fees for api, would be sufficient for my efforts. This is probably a time limited offer, as I do anticipate being employed sometime soon.

Good trading.

P.S. how long has Moneytec been upgrading their site?
 
Davidwt,

I'm not ready to get the API, unfortunately. Your generous offer makes me anxious and you know what I do when I get anxious :).

I understand that you did not vote, and that's ok. But I hope that if you can find a way to make an opinion, then by all means vote, later. Apparently, people still visit that poll and vote as the numbers continue to grow. The main idea was to get people to read that thread, before posting to this Journal here. It was just a thread control thing.

Davidwt, Do you think this is a slow bleed? You guys, I need to know. I have been very generous with my time here and on the other forums (you should be thanking me, which you have). Now, I call on you backtesters for help. I do not know how to backtest and all these years I have used excel spreadsheets. I trade from my experience and I am profitable. I have given my material out, and it is now ET's property, but may I remind you, I could write a book and sell it...I could develop systems and sell them. I am a trader who trades my own money and I do not need to make money from the sweat of my colleagues backs.

Don't laugh at me. I have traded for several decades and I have too much experience to pull out all the stops and throw a lot of money to this. I respect backtesters and this method requires due diligence. Fundamentally and logically, I just cannot imagine pulling on the "rope of price candlesticks" and not being able to pull more than quadruple its length at the MINIMUM.

You see the key here..is Oanda...and their one unit increments. I have been talking about this for years here...

Michael B.

P.S. In 10 years the EUR/USD has ranged around 6,200 pips from top to bottom. Thats $6,200 dollars? right? one lot would be $62,000.00 right? and you make $10.00 a pip right? or 10:1? I get all these decimals screwed up maybe...So cut it in half just to be negative and I make half a million in 10 years, conservativly speaking? (remember the quad thing...)






Quote from davidwt:

Excellent ideas discussed here. I came visiting from Moneytec (same username there as here). Until I'm in a position to actually fund an account for doing this, I'll just keep visiting.

To answer the inevitable question, I did not vote and have no intention of doing so as I have no opinion. In fact, my opinion is that talking about gambling is just a distraction to the great ideas being discussed and tested. My other opinion is that if it makes money both ethically and legally, then I really don't care how one labels it (trading, gambling, risk-taking, etc), I'm willing to try it with resources if available. Otherwise, I may just demo trade it meanwhile.

On another front, being in between jobs (because of a takeover), I do have 15+ years of programming experience, if needed. Pay may not be needed, some other arrangement, such as not needing to pay the stiff Oanda fees for api, would be sufficient for my efforts. This is probably a time limited offer, as I do anticipate being employed sometime soon.

Good trading.

P.S. how long has Moneytec been upgrading their site?
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