Elite Trader's Gambler's Anonymous ETGA

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This is true. But when I see all that flow out there and imagine that I do not need to know direction to capture it, fascinates me..

and..

What even is more kewl...is the wider the pool gets the better chance of profit...it just gets better and better..


believing in a system has nothing to do with its ultimate success
either its a viable system or it isnt.....
 
Can someone help with an excel formula? I want more acceleration when the drawdown improves...(together with variable minumum incremental distance rules this could be rather powerful)


The system will start with 0.02% of NAV trade ticket and move up quickly based on the improved drawdown The key is to build up quickly in good times which is when prices are in a multiday chop zone..

Also more pairs will be phased in quickly to get exposed to 8 currencies.(I do not think duplicate, correlated pairs are needed).

This "wait time" right now, to get out of the EUR/USD and the USD/CHF, can be used to set up for the next forward test.

This next forward test should prove to be rather interesting. I hope much can be learned.

Michael B.
 
I was thinking of these three pairs to go long and short with to start (six currencies)

EUR/USD
Minimum increment = 30 pips (pivot point)
Spread=1.5 pips
1Y range 1.3646-1.1970=16,760 pips (currently near the middle of the range)

AUD/JPY
Minimum increment 10 pips (pivot point)
Spread = 3 pips
1Y range range 83.93-75.24 = 8,690 pips (currently at the 75% level of the range)

GBP/CHF
Minimum Increment 15 pips (pivot point)
Spread = 6 pips
1Y range 2.2887-2.1517= 13,700 pips (currently at the 90% level of the range)


Michael B.

P.S. If I can't get an acceleration formula perhaps there could be three levels of trading percents for the daily trade ticket percents for each pair. I am not sure about this yet (trying to understand the intracacies of the mechanics of a trend and what takes place):

Drawdown >= 25% = 0.02% trade ticket
Drawdown >= 20% = 0.10% trade ticket
Drawdown >= 10% = 0.25% trade ticket


 
Max,

You think this is bad...(not so bad here)

Check out the Oanda Thread...

Like I have been advised..take these anonymous forums with a grain of salt...

Damn this thread sur has exploded in a few days!!!!!
 
CORRECTION (minimum increments, changed to a float)



Three pairs to go long and short in (six currencies)

EUR/USD
Minimum increment (pivot point) = 49 pips (16760/1.5/228)
Spread = 1.5 pips
1Y range 1.3646-1.1970=16,760 pips (currently near the middle of the range)

AUD/JPY
Minimum increment (pivot point) 13 pips (8690/3/228)
Spread = 3 pips
1Y range range 83.93-75.24 = 8,690 pips (currently at the 75% level of the range)

GBP/CHF
Minimum Increment (pivot point) 10 pips (13,700/6/228)
Spread = 6 pips
1Y range 2.2887-2.1517= 13,700 pips (currently at the 90% level of the range)


Michael B.

P.S. If I can't get an acceleration formula perhaps there could be three levels of trading percents for the daily trade ticket percents for each pair. I am not sure about this yet (trying to understand the intracacies of the mechanics of a trend and what takes place):

Drawdown >= 25% = 0.06% trade ticket ($500.00 initial bal for each pair)
Drawdown >= 20% = 0.30% trade ticket ($500.00 initial bal for each pair)
Drawdown >= 10% = 0.75% trade ticket ($500.00 initial bal for each pair)

P.S.S. Folks this gets closer to "not gambling" every day, but can the yield be maintained is the question?
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

firehorse,

Firstly, Thank you for reading.

Secondly, I have confidence in you firehorse...You might PM jasonjm as there has been a conflict with your hypothesis to this, compared to a later private comment he made to me. I would rather he tell you, not me as I respect a persons work as you have seen me demonstrate.

Have you measured only draw down or have you also accounted for any increased TP by closer increments such as 30 on both sides of the perfect hedge?

Thirdly, Each pair demonstrates its 1Y range to set the increments with. The 10Y range can be the base the drawdown calculates a minumum trade percent from. Are you with me? Also, I believe in Pivot points so these backtests are using "fixed" percentages which are helpful to set the "minimum pivot point distance" rule with. Also layering with three hour pivot points during those high momentum times is how to capitalize on the flow.

Fourthly,, with Sympatico's own admission, he admits there may be better ways to trade his system. This is what we are in the process of discovering. So keep up your work. To be effective is the path for capturing the most flow out of the high momentum "times". There is nothing discretionary about this.

Michael B.
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Hi,

I don't believe there is any conflict in hypothesis as sometimes, the smallest differences can have a large effect. I'm sure that if I used his data and his algorithm that I would get the same result :) ... and of course there still probably one or two fundamental errors in my program / spreadsheet :D (... just thought of one possible one... will have to go and check :p)

GBPUSD 2004
30pip interval
2746 trades
38141 pip balance end of year
-42472 unrealised at end of year
18/2/04 biggest drawdown -17535
Bal End of Year/Max DD ratio 2.18

I have simulated every trade so I know to the minute where every trade was entered. I currently have a counter to tell me how many trades were exited on each bar (count them in, and count them out :)), but have yet to get the program to output the entry price of each trade that exited on a particular bar (up to 8), which is vital to calculate the monetary effect rather than the just the pip total.

Your third point I'm a bit hazy with "1Y range to set the increments" (still very new to forex) and will keep reading :)

I did try one simple layering test
GBPUSD 2004
10pip interval, TP 20pip
9143 trades
103563 pip balance end of year
-77037 unrealised at end of year
18/2/04 biggest drawdown -36179
Bal End of Year/Max DD ratio 2.86

There may be many other ways/intervals of layering that will prove more profitable

Re-reading some of Sympatico's posts, I think that during start up, it is better to do discretionary trading than mechanical trading to 'try' and build up your realized faster than the unrealised pool.

Best regards
Alan
 
So to summarize:
  • Trade ticket is in percent of NAV*** giving heed to a slight martingale.
  • Trade Ticket Percent can accelerate* based on a decreasing drawdown, which is reflective of a chopping type of price action. The spreadsheet and the calculations actually tell you what the market has done and what it may continue to do. All that can be done is to react based on the fact that consolidation CAN last several days.
  • Increments use a Pivot Point which follows the "natural flow" of the market. TP'S, entries and replacement trades are set from Pivot to Pivot.*******
  • Pivot Point Increments****** follow a minimum spacing rule, which is floating based on 1Y range (highest high and lowest low on a rolling one year). Keep in mind just because we follow fixed minimum's does not necessarily mean that this will be the increment...the average increment spacing will be higher. As far as I know this is a tweak that is an "added" benefit you get from following this Journal. Perhaps others are trading this Grid style system this way, but as far as I know they have not discussed it****.
  • Parity** (Mark in Oanda has introduced this in Oanda in the past) has been introduced as a tool to measure the effectiveness of the various sliding scales at work here (interestingly this has not been examined further- concealed here may be a portfolio acceleration formula).

Michael B.

Work in progress:

*A daily acceleration formula that can be plugged into an Excel spreadsheet. The actual percentages used is still being examined to be able to get the growth***** needed during certain conditions to maintain this system. There is nothing discretionary here, no matter how much certain people want to feel "special".

**The reporting spreadsheet for this Journal.

***The establishing of a total of 6 subaccounts, one primary account for system#2 and a cash subaccount. (this is actually completed last night).

****Live Forward testing in this Journal

***** Times of Day statistical observations.

****** MAE and MFE studies of the three Forex trading parts of the globe. European, Asian and North American. A simple recording of the O/H/L/C in three segments would be a step in this direction. Another reason why you want to follow this "non cryptic Journal" there is not any game playing here or Super-Ego's to struggle with. There is much work to do!

*******The concept of Layering. How to? What time Frames? What are statistical high momentum/volatility times?

 
Great thread!

If you ever plan on being successful, you have to get rid of the RED FONT color.

Anybody that has ever worked on a trading desk will understand this.

PS: I meant it sincerely, I have been following it!
Try Purple.:D
 
Ebo,

lol...subliminally speaking red ink could be a bad thing...but lets think outside of the box and accept the red and understand that the more red, the more profit...get it?


Ebo...thanks for th positive comment, I know you are brutally honest, and when you comment like this I do not know what to think, you confuse me.

Michael B.


Quote from Ebo:

Great thread!

If you ever plan on being successful, you have to get rid of the RED FONT color.

Anybody that has ever worked on a trading desk will understand this.
More...
 
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