Elite Trader's Gambler's Anonymous ETGA
- Thread starter ElectricSavant
- Start date
- Status
and to answer your question, if you set NAV to .02% and you started when gbp was 1.55 in aug 2003, assuming GBPUSD stays where it is now, you would breakeven in 2007 on GBPUSD, your drawdown would be 10% of your account at its peak
so at ticket size of .1% your drawdown would have been 50% of account
and that is ignoring interest rates where u would be on the wrong side (Short GBPUSD)
and the other problem is we all making assumptions GBPUSD stays in the 10Y range - what if it goes to 2.40??
so at ticket size of .1% your drawdown would have been 50% of account
and that is ignoring interest rates where u would be on the wrong side (Short GBPUSD)
and the other problem is we all making assumptions GBPUSD stays in the 10Y range - what if it goes to 2.40??
No, not within the 10y range THE AMOUNT of the 10y range....
sorry dont understand the question?
btw I just ran a test on the whole of 2004
GBP would have shown a decent profit trading the range
it opened the year at about 1.80 and closed at 1,95
ERROR FOUND
using a 100 pip grid, you would have banked 21600 pips profit, and unrealized loss would be 23100 pips
so not a nice profit
this whole idea hinges on being able to withstand the very very onesided moves, like 1.55 to 1.90 on gbpusd
1.80 to 1.95 on gbp in 1 year still showed nice profit
so how about hedging with options hmmm
6 month CALL on GBPUSD, of which 15 "units would be needed" would take away 900 pips profit x 2 for 12 months
PUTs would run about the same.
so option cost for the year trading would be 3600 pips, which would protect you against moves of over 1500 pips directional on gbpusd within 6 month periods
edit: scratch the option idea, 6 months isnt long enough time frame
btw I just ran a test on the whole of 2004
GBP would have shown a decent profit trading the range
it opened the year at about 1.80 and closed at 1,95
ERROR FOUND
using a 100 pip grid, you would have banked 21600 pips profit, and unrealized loss would be 23100 pips
so not a nice profit
this whole idea hinges on being able to withstand the very very onesided moves, like 1.55 to 1.90 on gbpusd
1.80 to 1.95 on gbp in 1 year still showed nice profit
so how about hedging with options hmmm
6 month CALL on GBPUSD, of which 15 "units would be needed" would take away 900 pips profit x 2 for 12 months
PUTs would run about the same.
so option cost for the year trading would be 3600 pips, which would protect you against moves of over 1500 pips directional on gbpusd within 6 month periods
edit: scratch the option idea, 6 months isnt long enough time frame
jasonjm
All I know is this:
I want to learn how to trade this!
I'm not a computer programmer. I do not have the fancy tools. I do not understand FXmath completely. (I know a little more now)
Michael B.
All I know is this:
- Flow>capacity
- I don't need to know direction
- As the pool or grid gets wider it becomes less and less gambling.
I want to learn how to trade this!
I'm not a computer programmer. I do not have the fancy tools. I do not understand FXmath completely. (I know a little more now)
Michael B.
So we need a pair that when another pair trends it will chop. Then we need to be able to transfer money from one to the other....Right?
Folks, I am publically making a fool of myself. No doubt Sympatico is laughing at me.
Along with Jason, there are talented ones reading this thread, I am sure.
I have my entire life....I must do the work myself. I am running out of ideas. Usually when this happens, something hits me at 2:00 in the morning while laying in bed.
But if this were so easy, then the Hedge funds and money players would be trading it right?
Michael B.
Folks, I am publically making a fool of myself. No doubt Sympatico is laughing at me.
Along with Jason, there are talented ones reading this thread, I am sure.
I have my entire life....I must do the work myself. I am running out of ideas. Usually when this happens, something hits me at 2:00 in the morning while laying in bed.
But if this were so easy, then the Hedge funds and money players would be trading it right?
Michael B.
Isn't there a way to accelerate realized without knowing direction?
Does the simspeed model make it half as easy to range? His model captures range not trend...Sell above and buy below..He talks of an inverse grid also...
Michael B.
Michael B.
Yes that's where my interest lies as well - shortening the system from long term to intermediate/short term and trading it in reverse. I haven't figured out the details. But here is a question to chew on. If virtually everyone who starts trading the grid method starts out with their unrealized loss as larger than their realized gain, would it not be possible to just trade it in reverse, and then at some point before the long term benefits of the system have a chance to kick in, you close out everything, and start over. That's the concept that's kicking around in my head, but at this point it is just a concept.
- Status