Elite Trader's Gambler's Anonymous ETGA

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only thing sympatico hasn't done is explain how he isn't going to get a margin call in the end

unless he is using discretionary tactics, which I think he does

from watching the FX market for years and years I think that using 3 hr supports etc etc is just random, complete waste of time IMO

I also think you missed the point of the calculations, the best best number on gbpusd was actually 40 pip closely followed by 100 pips

I would actually say 100 pips is the best number, least work, almost the highest pip / drawdown ratio

kind of weird, makes me look at this whole idea in new light, if 100 pip blocks do better than 30 pip blocks
 
But increasing the pip increments, wont that lessen the realized? Sorry, I don't get it...I seem to be thinking backwards.

Michael B.


Quote from jasonjm:

only thing sympatico hasn't done is explain how he isn't going to get a margin call in the end

unless he is using discretionary tactics, which I think he does

from watching the FX market for years and years I think that using 3 hr supports etc etc is just random, complete waste of time IMO

I also think you missed the point of the calculations, the best best number on gbpusd was actually 40 pip closely followed by 100 pips

I would actually say 100 pips is the best number, least work, almost the highest pip / drawdown ratio
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What confuses me he says 15 pairs minimize risk. How? If some of them are corrleated?

Then he talks about hedging correctly...Well if your long and short in the same pair how can you be more perfect? Perhaps it is in the trade ticket on each pair..

Michael B.
 
I think its like this:
  • Use a variable trade ticket based off of drawdown with the lowest value of 0.010%
  • Trade all the pairs long and short and using pivot point increments The minumum distance rule would change according to the comparison in range. If EUR/USD is 25 pips minimum then what is a pair that has a 25% wider 10Y range going to have? Answer: 30 pip "minimum distance pip" increment.
  • Maintain a cash sub-account

What do you think?

Michael B.
 
I'm sorry but i still dont see how this idea eventually doesnt blow up?

using the work I just did, it would take 4 years of trading the range to make back the money lost in the GBP 6 month move


u know the more I look at this, the more I am beginning to think this system may be better to be traded in reverse, IE not as a range trader, but as a directional breakout trader

What if instead of the Takeprofit set to 40 pips, the stoploss was set to 40 pips? with no take profit at all? with the end once off LARGE take profit set for a yearly target, say 2.5% profit per pair per year

what would the results then be?

thinking about this one... hehehe
 
I wrote an excel script that backtested 5 min data on GBPUSD for the last 60 days

don't want to bore you, but I have many math and science and computer degress blah blah

so it wasnt very hard to backtest

and if you look at the last 60 days on GBPUSD, its actually BETTER for the system than LONG term would be, the last 60 days have been 60 days of almost perfect range trading, maximizing profits for this system

on the trends this system would never pick up the same amount of pips per day the last 60 days yielded

so far my work is the only work I have seen to date that actually has analyzed the flow with hard data - actual number crunching: neither simspeed nor sympatico nor others have actually posted any hard data on what to expect
 
So are you saying that using a minumum trade ticket at 0.10% of NAV that is variable and increases if drawdown decreases (set daily for the whole day) and uses pivot points set at 10Y range increments designed to survive the maximum range seen, I will not survive?

Question: What increments would be necessary in each pair to survive? and to take in a reasonale realized with the an effective amount of labor expended...(I know with just 5k I cannot expect to get my labor paid for in the beginning)

Michael B.


Quote from jasonjm:

I wrote an excel script that backtested 5 min data on GBPUSD for the last 60 days

don't want to bore you, but I have many math and science and computer degress blah blah

so it wasnt very hard to backtest

and if you look at the last 60 days on GBPUSD, its actually BETTER for the system than LONG term would be, the last 60 days have been 60 days of almost perfect range trading, maximizing profits for this system

on the trends this system would never pick up the same amount of pips per day the last 60 days yielded

so far my work is the only work I have seen to date that actually has analyzed the flow with hard data - actual number crunching: neither simspeed nor sympatico nor others have actually posted any hard data on what to expect
More...
 
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