Elite Trader's Gambler's Anonymous ETGA

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But don't we need more pips to overcome the HUGe unrealized?


Quote from jasonjm:

I can't do pivots, i can just do a ladder

look at some results i posted a few back, interesting
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Oldhands studies, seem to support Sympatico's layering technique with the 3 hour chart...hmmmm....

LET ME TELL YOU SOMETHING FOLKS, THERE ARE MULTI-MILLIONAIRES MADE OUT OF FOREX


Quote from TriPack:

I think it is a fundamental assumption of this system that the sum of the back and forth movements is always greater than the sum of the straight line moves. Even if a market went 4500 pips in one direction, I would be willing to bet that it did more than 9000 pips of back and forth movement along the way, before or after (though if it were sudden it could cause a margin call before you had a chance to recover).. I haven't studied the price series you refer to so maybe I'm offbase. Here is an interesting thread on this subject:

http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgboard/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=15;t=002782#000000
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electric here is the catch - think about this carefully

the less the drawdown on the unrealized profits, the bigger your trade sizes can be? agreed?

so its not the number of pips we take profit on, its the number of pips relative to the unrealized profit thats they key

for example the massive one way GBP move from 1.55 to 1.90 in 6 months

the following drawdowns on unrealized profit would occur

20 pip - 308 000 pips
30 pip - 205 910 pips
40 pips - 154 860 pips
100 pip - 63 000 pips



but anyways seems bad looking at those numbers

to recover the 63000 pip unrealized loss at 58 pips per day would take 1086 days!!!!

OUCH thats 4 years of trading if the market doesnt turn around

to make it worse, would have been short gbpusd, which means heavy interest charges too

for this system to work it seems like there needs to be some sort of directional filter or input



 
didn't you look at the spreadsheet? (see the variable trade ticket column- look at the formula)

I am have trouble getting the acceleration right....

Expect to float an unrealized drawdown between 30-40% to be at optimal...

Michael B.



Quote from jasonjm:

electric here is the catch - think about this carefully

the less the drawdown on the unrealized profits, the bigger your trade sizes can be? agreed?

so its not the number of pips we take profit on, its the number of pips relative to the unrealized profit thats they key
More...
 
Interesting from 40 to 30 pips (25%) drawdown increases only a little more than 25%. seems like the 30 pips area is around the sweet spot...(the pivot point minumum increment rule of 20 pips will give a near average of 30 pips increments while adjusting them to the natural flow, perhaps a 25 minimum will be even better) oh wait I am on the EUR/USD...

Also.....

Using the three hour chart or 10 pip increment while breachig support and resistance has not been discussed much...

Michael B.

Quote from jasonjm:

electric here is the catch - think about this carefully

the less the drawdown on the unrealized profits, the bigger your trade sizes can be? agreed?

so its not the number of pips we take profit on, its the number of pips relative to the unrealized profit thats they key

for example the massive one way GBP move from 1.55 to 1.90 in 6 months

the following drawdowns on unrealized profit would occur

20 pip - 308 000 pips
30 pip - 205 910 pips
40 pips - 154 860 pips
100 pip - 63 000 pips



but anyways seems bad looking at those numbers

to recover the 63000 pip unrealized loss at 58 pips per day would take 1086 days!!!!

OUCH thats 4 years of trading if the market doesnt turn around

to make it worse, would have been short gbpusd, which means heavy interest charges too

for this system to work it seems like there needs to be some sort of directional filter or input
More...
 
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