Elite Trader's Gambler's Anonymous ETGA

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I don't know how that many pivot point can be useful. Lot of time, previous day open or close means nothing for the next day. Especially in Forex, which is a continuous market, the "closing price of the day" is arbitrary. I just don't know if those points are really pivot.

Some days i see a hard concrete floor that the price won't go below, and the next day it flows freely up and down like there was nothing.

May be just placing order at every 10-20 pip intervals, on round numbers, would do the same. Plus some "harder" temporary support/resistance lines that you can find as the day goes.

If you keep those pivot point though, i would draw the new line that comes closer than 10 pips from another one and errase the past one instead.
 
Yes Max,

Thats what I do currently- the new line gets drawn as its more current. I increased it to 20 pips though...

Max, Are you saying keep it 10 pips? I know what you mean about pivots and the continuos market that Forex is. But I notice on the straight drops I get wider lines because there is more air. This seems to trace the "natural" flow....

Michael B.

P.S I gotta keep this magnification under control. I got a lot of open orders lined up and its like a magnifier when the pool widens (I got to handle a wide pool and I still may be too high on the percentage used for the trade ticket). After looking at the 10Y scale, I got a little scared. This is not supposed to be gambling. I know I am sacrificing yield, but there are opportunities to tighten discretionarily later, as soon as I can understand how. I need a plain speaker to translate for me he he :)

P.S.S. I think that when it busts through the top and bottom of the pool there should be a lot of tight 10 pip limits waiting to take profit at each end...but I am not sure...For example if the EUR/USD drops down below 1.2767 then there should be 10 pip increments waiting on the USD/CHF at the upper end which is above 1.2197 or a little earlier as they seem slightly out of sync.

Michael B.

Quote from Maxprofit$:

I don't know how that many pivot point can be useful. Lot of time, previous day open or close means nothing for the next day. Especially in Forex, which is a continuous market, the "closing price of the day" is arbitrary. I just don't know if those points are really pivot.

Some days i see a hard concrete floor that the price won't go below, and the next day it flows freely up and down like there was nothing.

May be just placing order at every 10-20 pip intervals, on round numbers, would do the same. Plus some "harder" temporary support/resistance lines that you can find as the day goes.

If you keep those pivot point though, i would draw the new line that comes closer than 10 pips from another one and errase the past one instead.
More...
 
Ah yes Max,

The earlier post was confusing. A new Pivot line IS drawn, its the old one that is eliminated...

What do you think of the 20 pip nearness rule? (I can sleep more tonight instead of that bouncing back and forth between the close lines:))

Michael B.
 
ElectricSavant,

Would you mind showing us a sreen shot of one of your charts with the lines drawn on it?

I would like to see how you do that.

Thanks.

Pipgainer
 
I have two 21" Sony monitors (the above screenshot) and a HP notebook computer for downstairs on the bedstand. You can log in from two computers and have the platform open at the same time...18:00est is a great time to go to the gym and to take wifey to dinner, never have missed a trade replacement

Is the screenshot readable? If I posted it without the link it would make the ET screens too wide for this entire page (I do not know how to use the "trim" commands in HTML and my screenshot program cannot crop).

If there are any questions please ask, remember, there are not any stupid questions. Just look at my questions/frustrations at Oanda that I post publicly. There is no fear here....All are welcome to this Journal.

I would like to thank ET and the moderator for providing this platform and this wonderful opportunity to take a place in the archives.

Michael B.

P.S. I had a good night sleep and was actually able to hit rem several times. The new pivots do not trade that much, which I do not know if this is good or bad yet. But read a few posts back as the idea I believe is to tighten up at the pool extremes when it is in widening stage. A new pair will be added soon...any choices? I was thinking of some volatility in an Asian session...
 
When adding new pairs a decision must be made. Will it be two pairs that are anti-correlated? or will it be long and short in the same pair?

I lean on doing another two pairs similar to the current EUR/USD and the USD/CHF combo with an anti correlation in the 90 plus percent area see:

http://www.mataf.net/en/analysis-correlation.htm


The reason I do not use pure Forex hedging (Forex uses the term hedging differently than its conventional use. simply, its long and short in the same pair at the same time) is because Oanda does not allow it in the same platform, one needs a sub-account with them. This causes a problem for me and my spreadsheet reporting. As you know the spreadsheet is not just to report results but to calculate necessary settings to trade with.

Another consideration when picking a pair is its volatility and spread. see here:

http://www.mataf.net/en/analysis-volatility.htm


The spreads in the Asian pairs are 3-6 pips at Oanda.

Now, you more clever ones. I ask you to post your pairs and reasons why. OK? Go ahead, take a stab at it. :)

Lets make this Journal productive, profitable and educational...

Michael B.

P.S. Putting on positive interest pairs at this point, seems to be a non issue. As positive interest carry is one directional trades...see system 2


 
For you System# 2 traders. There has been a marvelous opportunity presenting itself in the EUR/HUF...take a look.

System #2 has averaged in twice on the EUR/HUF from the last tade posting here, and if price continues rising a third position will average in! (see spreadsheet for increments- its 101 pips)

As you know, System #2 is a "positive interest carry" type of system. Trading it, really is not where the money is made...its the daily interest injection that makes the money!

But....

There is a balancing that takes place (read the trading instructions) when it presents itself for a take of profit that would be faster than the interest pays.

In the first week of presenting this system, you may notice that there was a lot of trading. The system may be entering that zone again next week. With this system, when exiting a trade to cancel out losers and/or to just take some fast accelerated profit, is actually presenting a problem! The trade must be replaced and then you must wait to build up the interest earning machine again.

Some may say why take profit at all...just let it ride. However, it is important to balance when you can, as this is a "one directional system" with pairs that trade independently from each other. Keep your average price near the current price every chance you get!

Michael B.
 
Just a reminder....Spread widening at around 15:45 est and trading continues even after the widening for a little while, then its dead. (positive interest carry for both systems so no worries)

On Sunday at around 20:00 est they return. However, trading starts before then on Sunday in the afternoon (est zone) even before the narrow spreads return.

Have a nice weekend....(I will post the spreadsheet in a few hours)

Michael B.

late edit (I never really know the exact times...)
 
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