Elite Trader seems quieter than usual today

Quote from Tsing Tao:

Just curious - is that taking into account the lost value of the dollar (inflation)?
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I don't understand how inflation would be a factor in the study.

The study said if you invested $1,000 in the Dow in August 1900.

So, I am thinking that if you time traveled backward to August 1900, asked your grandfather for $1,000, and invested the $1,000 in the Dow, and then time traveled forward to 2009 and saw the value of your account, it would say, $157,000.

You could read the study here:

http://www.optionetics.com/market/articles/21577

What I want to know is how exactly the $1,000 is invested in the Dow in August 1900. Could one invest $1,000 in the Dow with ONE TRANSACTION?
 
Quote from Tsing Tao:

Just curious - is that taking into account the lost value of the dollar (inflation)?
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I doubt it. While we're at it, I'd like to request the perma-bulls post a chart of the inflation adjusted S&P 500 since it's peak in 2000. All of their breathless posts about a "great time to buy stocks" probably hasn't accounted for the diminished purchasing power of the currency itself.

Meanwhile, Gold is within spitting distance of $2,000/oz
 
Quote from SteveNYC:

Dayum! Trying to see where I can admit being wrong. Quick recap:



I stated that Death Cross is NOT A RELIABLE INDICATOR by saying that it failed last JULY.

You responded by saying "A sample size of 1? Is that how you judge a trading system?"

I AM NOT TALKING ABOUT A SYSTEM! Apples and oranges...

You even agreed with me by saying "In reality, more than half the downside crosses don't work--they often happen just before a rally (i.e., 10-20% corrections)." DOH!


Then you bring up the 50/200 moving average cross over system BUT you never state "which" stinking cross over system.

I said:

"Not sure about the 50/200 cross over system beating buy and hold system. Wouldn't time periods be a factor?

If you bought at the bottom in 1932 and sold at the top in 2007, you would have never experienced any whipsaws.

If you used the 50/200 cross over system, you would have been whipsawed. The whipsaws would put you behind the buy and hold investor."

I was talking about a 50/200 system that takes long AND short positions.

You responded by saying that I am wrong with a study that used a 50/200 system that ONLY TOOK LONG POSITIONS. You assumed that I was talking about a 50/200 long only ma cross over system.

We are talking about two different 50/200 systems here. Apples and oranges again....


By the way, how does one invest $1,000 in the DOW in August 1900 with ONE TRANSACTION?

The study that you cited stated:

"$1,000 invested in the Dow using a buy-and-hold approach from August 1900 through July 2009 grew to a little over $157,000."

It didn't mention how it exactly invested the $1,000 in the Dow.

ALSO, WHAT ABOUT CAPITAL GAINS TAXES??????

It doesn't factor in the taxes that you would have to pay every time you sell.
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I hope you're trolling, cause this is just getting worse and worse.

I never said the golden cross was a reliable indicator the next secular bear market, either. I said it beat buy-and-hold as a basic timing system. That was really an aside, but you wanted to make a big deal about it then questioned hard data with nothing but opinion.

I assumed you understood this as a long-only system, as virtually all long-term stock index systems (ie.., those trading once or twice a year) are long-only systems designed to protect against major downturns. I assumed too much.

I was right. It does beat buy-and-hold signicantly for over 100 years. All of your red herrings and bickering don't change that.

Studies like this hardly ever consider taxes. Take a look at some in academic journals. Just assume this should only be traded in an IRA/401K so taxes are a non-issue.

The point is not to consider what would happen if somene literally traded this since 1900 (with all the changing tax brackets, investment vehicles, etc.). Obviously that never happened. The point is that it's one of many market-beating, drawdown-reducing ways to beat buy-and-hold. It's not the best one. But it's better than leaving your money in the market 100% of the time like a lemming and hoping you'll always be saved by a bailout or silly "don't bet against America" rhetoric.
 
Quote from denner:

I've followed a few of your posts in recent weeks. Can't help but notice you seem like another groupthink victim. The usual "Buffet is God", "gold is a bubble", "every dip is a buying opportunity" load of bullshit.
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Wise words, Denner. We should have listened to you and not let this go beyond one page.
 
Quote from jsp326:

I hope you're trolling, cause this is just getting worse and worse.

I never said the golden cross was a reliable indicator the next secular bear market, either. I said it beat buy-and-hold as a basic timing system. That was really an aside, but you wanted to make a big deal about it then questioned hard data with nothing but opinion.

I assumed you understood this as a long-only system, as virtually all long-term stock index systems (ie.., those trading once or twice a year) are long-only systems designed to protect against major downturns. I assumed too much.

I was right. It does beat buy-and-hold signicantly for over 100 years. All of your red herrings and bickering don't change that.

Studies like this hardly ever consider taxes. Take a look at some in academic journals. Just assume this should only be traded in an IRA/401K so taxes are a non-issue.

The point is not to consider what would happen if somene literally traded this since 1900 (with all the changing tax brackets, investment vehicles, etc.). Obviously that never happened. The point is that it's one of many market-beating, drawdown-reducing ways to beat buy-and-hold. It's not the best one. But it's better than leaving your money in the market 100% of the time like a lemming and hoping you'll always be saved by a bailout or silly "don't bet against America" rhetoric.
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Holy sh*t. Severe IQ boo jok.

hajimow would know what I am talking about. hehe....

I am not going to touch this b/c if I respond then you will just argue that the grass is green and that sometimes it's yellow and then maybe you will move on to talk about the color of the sky. And then you kick it, with the "I am right". Scary sh*t.

Sure, open up an IRA account in year 1900 and deposit $1,000 to buy the DOW with ONE TRANSACTION.
 
Quote from jsp326:

Wise words, Denner. We should have listened to you and not let this go beyond one page.
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Now, Denner has to chime in and pat jsp326 on the back with some wise words......

But, the more they speak, the more they sound "smart".

Dilemma......
 
Quote from SteveNYC:

Holy sh*t. Severe IQ boo jok.

....

I am not going to touch this b/c if I respond then you will just argue that the grass is green and that sometimes it's yellow and then maybe you will move on to talk about the color of the sky. And then you kick it, with the "I am right". Scary sh*t.
.
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You just described yourself perfectly. Thanks. It's the only cogent statement you've made so far.

The purpose of market-timing studies is to research market behavior and TA tools with reasonable assumptions. Only those on the wrong end of the IQ bell curve make statements like "if I time-traveled back to 1900, I couldn't open an E-Trade account or buy ETFs with my iPhone. And there weren't even income taxes back then!"

Time to end this thread.
 
Quote from achilles28:

The FED's mandate to promote stability gives them broad authority to intervene, as we saw in '09. EU soverign bond prices are quickly deteriorating and it's obvious without a massive backstop, contagion is guaranteed. On that front, a multi-lateral intervention - FED + ECB + IMF - to beef up or expand the EFSF is possible. In our backyard, equities sold-off shortly before the end of QE2. IMO, this was no coincidence. FED could buy the long-end, buy MBS, sterilize US banks from EU soverign issues. To clarify, I don't support more CB intervention. I only expect it. I don't believe the FED + ECB went this far, only to let it fall apart now. Opposition to further QE is strong, but as facts change, so do policy. The debt ceiling debate proved Americans don't have the stomach for austerity. When faced with a meltdown, they''ll scream for another bailout. Bernacke is playing arms-length - letting us twist in the wind, a bit - to foment the necessary political capital for another round of intervention. My 2 cents.
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He is at arms length but it is or was, because game is over imo, a huge huge mistake. They are the target now. Perp walks will be everywhere. Big power will not cry uncle to Ben, they will go after his ass.
 
Quote from Nine_Ender:

Actually, the groupthink is to believe dumbasses like yourself who think the market is crashing. You are so unsure of yourself you need constant reassurance by trying to harrass each and every person who believes otherwise and knows that today's markets are probably a nice buying opportunity.

You've been trying to talk down this market for more then a year.
No doubt you have struggled to trade with your bias, and this translates into your obvious anger. I hope you've banked some money this summer, because its going to get ugly for you again this fall.
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The perma bull rides again..
 
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